Beijing 2008 News Flash: Liu Xiang out with injury

Face of Beijing games out with apparent Achilles injury

Perhaps the first big shock at this year's Olympic Games comes not from a major contender testing positive for a banned substance, but instead in the form of Liu Xiang pulling out of competition even before his qualifying heat in the 110 m hurdles.

At the end of 2007 we did a fun post in the year that was in running. In it we dished out some "awards," one of which was the "Losing sleep over the future" award, and it went to Chinese hurdler and poster boy of the Olympic Games Liu Xiang. How would you like 1.3 billion countrymen and women expecting you to make the nation proud and defend your Olympic title, which by the way also happened to be China's first ever gold medal in Athletics? Well, that was what Liu was up against.

To add to his pressure the fact that young and rising Cuban star Dayron Robles broke Xiang's world record earlier this year. Xiang's form was questionable this summer, which is not necessarily a bad thing---there is such a thing as peaking too early---but one must wonder if the pressure just continued to mount as the games approached, and whether or not deep down it had anything to do with his injury.

We have no details now on the exact nature of his injury. The live images late Sunday night showed Xiang sitting down with his right Achilles/ankle propped up on a bag of ice. All we now is that he lined up for his heat, clearly in pain during the warm up and while getting in to the blocks. There was a false start, and Xiang did not even make it to the first hurdle without pulling up and then promptly removing the numbers attached to his legs. He then exited the stadium, taking the hopes and dreams of many Chinese with him---even though China has performed exceptionally well thus far in numerous events.

Robles clear favorite in 110 m hurdles

While we wish injury upon no one, the sigh of relief you heard on Sunday night was Dayron Robles when he heard the news that Xiang had pulled out, as this makes him a clear favorite for the gold. Interestingly, it also continues the trend of shake ups at the games this year. It started with Tyson Gay not qualifying for the 100 m finals, and then Asafa Powell not even featuring in that event (ok, perhaps that was not so surprising!) It continued with hot 1500 m favorite Bernard Lagat failing to qualify for the final in that event by a scant 0.02 s (he failed to make the top five in his semi-final).

So it has been an exciting start to the athletics competition this year, but not so much for the performances to date but for the attrition of favorites!

Jonathan

Beijing 2008: Men's 10 000m report

Bekele makes it a double, and Ethiopia's dominance continues

You have to go back a long, long way to find the last time that the men's 10,000m Olympic gold was won by an athlete NOT from Ethiopia. Barcelona, 1992, to be precise, where Khalid Skah of Morocco beat Richard Chelimo in a controversial race.

Ever since, the 10,000m race has been an Ethiopian playground. They have won every one of the last four golds, and out of a total of 12 medals, have 7 of them. Today, Kenenisa Bekele, the greatest track runner in the world, bagged his second, when he won a fast, but not spectacular race. The winning time was 27:01.17, and Olympic record. In second, again, was Sileshi Sihine (who has as many silvers and Bekele golds), and third went to Micah Kogo of Kenya.

The race: How it unfolded

There are two words I'd use to describe this race. The first is INEVITABLE. It had an air of "sameness" to it, since Bekele was always going to win the race in the final 400m. It was like watching a rerun of every other major 10,000m final since 2003, with the possible exception of last year's race in Osaka, where Bekele was actually challenged.

Today he was not. Which is why the second word for this race is PECULIAR. It was, to be frank, a bizarre race. There was never a moment of drama, and if it was not such a fast race, an impressive performance of control by Bekele, the race would have been...boring. Last year in Osaka, a combination of great front running by Zersenay Tadese and the competitive presence from Kenya's Martin Mathati made the race exciting. This time around, they tried, but just seemed to lack that edge to force the defending champion to extend himself. The graph below shows the kilometer times during the race.



Really, I expected a lot more from the Kenyans and Eritreans. Even Gebrselassie, who would never in a million years have the speed to survive on a last lap sprint, did not inject some speed into the race during the middle stages. He did take the lead at one stage, but then bizarrely slowed the race down. He was content, as were the others, to run "conservative" laps in the 64 to 65 second range. Perhaps they simply didn't have the legs. If it was a conscious decision to sit in, then their tactics were really difficult to understand.

The Eritreans tried their best - there were clear team tactics from them. After a very slow start (2:50 for km 1), two of their lesser atheltes went to the front and pushed the pace...sort of. They did the second kilometer in 2:37, but couldn't keep it going, and soon, the pace fell into the mid 2:40's, which is fast, but easily manageable for the top runners. The problem was (and this was the trend for the rest of the race) that runners were going to the front and doing very little damage to the race. Even the surges were "only" being done at about 64 sec/lap pace, which is just not enough to shake anyone off.

As a result, the leading group was huge, all the way up to about 7000m, when finally, Zersenay Tadese put in the most explosive lap of the race - a 61 second lap with 8 to go. That move shook the race up a little, but he was unable to keep it going for even one more lap, and pretty soon, the race settled right back into the mid-60's, which meant everyone was just going through the motions until the bell.

When the bell came, it was, as usual, Bekele who moved to the front, pulled away and demonstrated his unbelievable kick. He covered the final 400m in 53.42 seconds, and the final kilometer in 2:27.10, but was barely even forced to find top gear, such is his brilliance in the kick. Sihine tried gamely, but the difference in speed over the final lap is enormous, and he was never in it.

So that gave Bekele title number 2, and Ethiopia their second gold of the Beijing Games. I hate to dismiss the race as inevitable, because it was won in an Olympic Record, and of course, Bekele is one of the all-time greats. But it lacked spark. I remember when Paul Tergat ran the 9th kilometer of the Atlanta Olympic 10,000m in 2:31, and long for a time when athletes fought harder, and risked a little more (or had the physiology to risk more to begin with). Today, it looked as though 10 guys showed up to make up the numbers, and maybe win a minor medal. The lack of competitive depth is disappointing.

So Bekele now moves on to the 5,000m, and it's difficult to see who will challenge him there. As with the 10,000m event, there seems to be a real lack of depth among the Kenyans, and a particular lack of competitive racing ability. Bernard Lagat, the world champion, does not appear to be in great shape, as he couldn't even make the 1500m final. So it seems that Bekele, if he runs the 5,000m, might just add a third gold medal to his collection.

Let's hope someone throws a challenge at him.

Ross

Beijing 2008: Men 100m race analysis

Bolt's 9.69s. Analysis of speed during the world record. How fast did Bolt run?

Thank you for visiting The Science of Sport. If you've come here after watching Usain Bolt's amazing 9.58s win in Berlin, you're in the right place! It's too early to analyse this latest world record, but in due course, the analysis will be done, and we'll be sure to bring it to you! So check in at our homepage, or at our first post after Bolt's race for more in the future...

Well, yesterday evening we posted on the incredible performance of Usain Bolt, who took the Olympic 100m title in 9.69 seconds, breaking his own world record by 0.03 seconds, despite the fact that he started celebrating about 20m from the finish!

It was a spectacular performance, which you can read about here.

The splits and speeds

However, for today, we have been sent the split times for each 10m interval from Bolt's race (thank you to Seb and an anonymous poster!), which we've used to calculate average speed for each 10m interval. The graph is shown below. Then below that, you'll find a table showing the times at each 10m marker.




Comments

According to these data, his peak speed was hit at 50m, and he then maintained this all the way to 80m, running at about 44 km/hour.

Note that this is the AVERAGE speed - there are reports (which I don't fully believe) that he hit 48km/hour. I can't see where this would have happened, because that would mean that either side of it, he must have run much slower, and the graph above gives no indication that he ran anything but a consistently fast pace. So I think it's far more likely that this figure of about 44km/hour is the speed he hit. The "instantaneous" peak is subject to too much error, unless the data are specifically gathered, which I don't think is the case here.

How does this compare to past values? Well, when Donovan Bailey of Canada ran 9.84 secs to win the 1996 Gold, he was clocked at 43.6 km/hour using a radar gun. A later statistical calculation suggested that Bailey hit 47.6 km/hour, but again, I think this is a little misleading, because the "error" in timing means that 0.5 seconds here or there can swing the "peak speed" by a great deal.

Therefore, I think the better measure is average speed over 10m intervals. I'm quite sure that people have run as fast as Bolt did before. The magic of this performance, however, is not so much in the spectacular top speed between 50m and 80m, but rather that Bolt could maintain his speed for so long.

Remember, a sprinter typically hits peak somewhere between 50 and 60m, but then slows progressively. Bolt's huge victory was created thanks to his incredible 50m stint between 40m and 90m, where he never dropped below 42km/hour.

How much faster can he run?

That is the question flying around today. What if Bolt had not celebrated from 20m out? Could he have run 9.50 seconds? Thompson, who took silver, said he'd run 9.54 seconds. The data above suggest that this is probably a little too optimistic. Even if he had maintained his speed for the final 20m (which is unlikely - he'd probably have dropped off slightly), he would have run 0.09 seconds faster. This would give him a 9.60 second time, which is incredible. More likely, he'd have slowed anyway (as all sprinters do), so I'd guess that his celebrations probably denied him about 0.05s and a time of 9.64s.

However, unless he can find the time somewhere else - in the start perhaps (he was second slowest in reaction time) - he won't run 9.50 seconds. Then again, Bolt is a young man, and he's already shown incredible ability. Who knows what the next two years will bring?

Ross

Beijing 2008: Women's marathon splits

Split times, and pacing analysis from the Beijing Women's Marathon

Constantina Tomescu-Dita has won the Beijing Olympic Marathon. In a real race of attrition, that saw many of the pre-race favourites drop out or off the pace BEFORE HALFWAY, it was the Romanian who had the ability on the day. She hit the front at 20km, pushed the pace on, and gradually grew a lead that hit 70 seconds with only 7km to go. Despite a fast finish from the chase group, Dita held on to claim Romania's first marathon gold. It was a race of attrition, many of the favourites having poor days. Paula Radcliffe finished, running a tough race despite insufficient training thanks to her injury problems leading in. Below is our pacing analysis of the race.

How the race unfolded: Split times, paces, and time analysis

Below is a graph of the pacing strategy of the race, with some notes for a "snapshot" overview of how the race unfolded. Below that is a table showing the times at each 5km interval, as well as the pace for that interval and the projected finish time.


Race of attrition - the favourites struggle early

You can see how the race began incredibly slowly, with a projected time in the 2:30's after the first 10km. Not surprisingly, an enormous group of women formed at the front. Over the course of the next 10km (from 10 to 20km), the group thinned somewhat as the pace picked up into the low 3:30's per kilometer.

But perhaps the biggest surprise was the progressive (and early) disappearance of some of the pre-race favourites. First, after only 5km, Deena Kastor pulled out. She won bronze in Athens, and was a dark-horse for a medal in Beijing, but she pulled off at 5km, and clutched her foot. It was not immediately obvious what the problem was, but she was clearly in pain, trying to run, but managing only 3 or 4 steps at a time before being reduced to a limp.

Next to go was Reiko Tosa of Japan. At about the 16km mark, she fell off the back, and was, incredibly, soon joined by Catherine Ndereba of Kenya, who was one of our picks for a medal. Ndereba recovered a little, and spent the next 10km hanging onto the back of the lead group. But Tosa never did, and the images of her crying and struggling along between about 20 and 30 km were among the more dramatic of the race.

Halfway - the race ignites

Having reached the halfway mark in 75:11 (projecting a 2:30), it was Constantina Dita of Romania who went to the front (or Constantina Tomescu, depending on which surname you use...). She ran the next two kilometers in about 3:20 each, and opened up a lead of around 30 seconds on the group, which was still large (more than 20 runners). The graph above shows why that gap was opened - she covered the 5km in 16:49, a pace of 3:22 per kilometer.

Then it was Paula Radcliffe to the front. She took up the mantle of "chaser" and went to the front of the group. About 3 km earlier, she'd pulled over to the side of the road for a bathroom break, reminiscent of the famous "pit-stop" in the London a few years ago. Encouragingly, she closed the gap quickly, and then took the lead and the chase of Tomescu-Dita began.

Between 25 and 30 km, the lead grew, however, and at 30km, it was up to 57 seconds. There are two reasons why the lead grew. First, she ran the interval at 3:20/km, which is a pretty impressive pace. But more than this, it was the lack of co-ordination of the chase that was responsible, because no one was really willing to do the work at the front. The big names were all there, but in a line, no one taking the responsibility or the risk to take the lead on.

30 km onwards - the race blows apart

Eventually, at about 29km, Zhou Chunxiu of China went to the front. At this stage, Radcliffe looked in trouble, right at the back of a group of about 10 athletes that had formed. Wami was gone too, and so was Birhane Adere, and the pace was now really starting to do some damage. Miraculously, however, Catherine Ndereba was there again, in touch. She'd been hanging off the back for the last 15km, which is a bizarre way to run, but with 12 km to go, she was right back in contention.

Tactically, you have to wonder about Ndereba...she has lost gold before by allowing breaks off the front, and today, sitting 15m behind the lead pack, she was in no position to respond to Dita's move. Not that she would have, probably, but still, it seems strange that she'd allow the race to sort itself out over 30km before putting her stake in...

For Radcliffe though, it was not to be, her lack of training the build-up eventually catching up with her. Shortly after 30km, the gap was created, and Radcliffe's challenge was over, sadly for her. The marathon is simply just not forgiving enough to allow an anti-gravity treadmill and cross-training to fully take the place of big volume running. It was a brave effort, though, a great run from a great runner.

Meanwhile, the race was on. Tomescu-Dita was working incredibly hard at the front, a noticeable difference in pace between her and the chasers. At 35km, the lead had grown to 1:10, thanks to Dita's great pace at the front (3:23/km for the 5km interval). That lead, with only 7km to go, seemed insurmountable.

Gold medal secured - a 22km time-trial seals the win

It was at this stage that I felt the gold medal was secure - the chase group was still showing no organization. And most telling, Zhou Chunxiu was not pushing on - if these athletes had any strength or any speed left, they'd have made a decisive move by now. This would be particularly true for the two Chinese women in front of their home crowd, who would surely have thrown in a challenge with only 7km to go. Their failure, even to "sacrifice" one athlete to bring Dita back suggested that it was her day.

And so it proved to be. Dita duly wrapped up the final 7km - she suffered a great deal in the process, but she held onto her lead, finishing in a time of 2:26:44:, with a lead of only 22 seconds. Second was grabbed by Catherine Ndereba and the bronze went to Zhou Chunxiu in what was a great race over the final lap inside the Bird Nest stadium - the crowd went wild, until the final 10m when Ndereba finally broke Zhou to win silver.

But this was Dita's day. Put simply, Dita won because she time-trialled the final 22 km at 3:23/km and everyone else could only manage a pace of 3:24/km. Dita's second half was run in 71:33, a fabulous performance, that could not be matched by any other runner on the day. Of course, it's never as simple as that, but this boiled down to a great performance from Dita, who thoroughly deserves the Olympic gold.

Opinions to follow

That's a wrap on the more technical/"scientific" analysis of the race - sorry for the heavy numbers! As you can imagine, there is a lot more to be said, however, and we'll be back with a bit more of an "opinion" piece a little later on (if time allows it - the Olympics are just too congested!).

So join us later for some opinion and insight!

Ross

P.S. A late addition to the post - just some info on Dita-Tomescu, who many may never have heard of. She was certainly an outside shot for a medal (never mind the win), but she does have some marathon and championship credentials. A world half marathon champion, along with a third in London and the 2005 World Champs in Helsinki, she does have some pedigree. Her biggest achievement until today was victory in the Chicago Marathon in 2004, in a PB of 2:21:30, which makes her one of the fastest women ever. People's suspicions will no doubt be aroused, such is the doping climate of world sport these days, and only time will tell. But she's not an athlete who emerged from nowhere...