Boston 2011 Live!

Boston 2011:  2:03:02 for Geoffrey Mutai!

Geoffrey Mutai has won the 2011 Boston Marathon, in the incredible time of 2:03:01.  No, it's not a world record.  It's not recognized because the course is downhill, point-to-point.  And that means that the WR belongs to Haile Gebrselassie at 2:03:59, but this is an extra-ordinary time nonetheless.

Aided by the strong tailwind, Geoffrey Mutai of Kenya has scorched his way to a 2:03:02.  Yep, you read that right, no typos here.  2:03:02.  Incredible running, with a first half of 1:01:57 and a second half of 1:01:05.  And that includes the Newton Hills.  That shows the strength of the wind and also the incredible performance of Geoffrey Mutai.

In second was Moses Mosop, a marathon debutant, in 2:03:06, and third was NY champion Gebre Gebremariam, while Ryan Hall ran 2:04:58 to finish fourth.

The table below shows the splits.  An absolutely extraordinary start and finish to the race.  The first 10km were covered in 29:06, which was projecting 2:02:47.  Then it actually slowed a little, the middle 20km being covered in 59:17, which is "only" 2:05 pace!

The final 10km are the real story though.  5km splits of 14:12 and then 14:13 saw Mutai break away, and then hold off a spirited Moses Mosop.  That 10km stretch from 30km to 40km was therefore covered in 28:25, absolutely staggering running from the Kenyan who finished second in Berlin last year.  I could scarcely believe the times, I've had to check it over and over...it brought the time down from a projected mid 2:04 to the 2:03:02 we ended up with.  Amazing running, made all the more incredible when you bear in mind the Newton Hills, and that Boston does have a hilly second half.

How much did the wind give?

A word of caution though, not to dampen the mood...that was a mighty strong tailwind.  The strength of the tailwind and its possible effects will be a talking point.  How much advantage would it provide?  And given that Boston is a hilly course (the Newton Hills), does the advantage provided by the win offset the disadvantage of those hills - remember, Boston's record has always been about 90 seconds to two minutes slower than that of London, Berlin, Rotterdam.

I'll give some thought to this question, and look at it in detail in a follow up post (once the dust has settled, or the "wind has died down", so to speak!).   But it is telling that Moses Mosop was a 2:03:06 guy on debut and that Ryan Hall broke 2:05, almost four minutes faster than he's ever run on this course.  And yes, people improve times, but 4 minutes?  Even 1 minute for an established athlete at that level is enormous.

Geoffrey Mutai came into the race with a PB of 2:04:55, on the flat Rotterdam course last year.  He improved it by 1:53.  Hall meanwhile brought a PB of 2:06:17 into the race, and ran 1:19 faster, compared again to a flat course.  So how much was that wind worth?  Unless one believes that already-world class runners can knock 2 minutes off their best, then it's worth a great deal.

If I had to guess, I would say that the wind today was worth around two minutes, compared to a flat course with no wind.  And three to four minutes faster than Boston on a still day.  Remember, Boston is always about 2 to 3 minutes slower than the other major marathons of London, Berlin, Rotterdam.  And so to be faster, that's not simply a great runner (or two - remember Mosop, only 4 seconds behind!).

So I'd estimate three for that reason, and because if you look at Hall and the women, they're running that much faster, and I'm afraid I don't believe in huge PBs for athletes who are already at that level.  Keitany going much faster, yes, but that's a different situation.  But as I said, I'll give it some thought and follow it up in another post!

Below are the splits from the race, and my race commentary.  More to come, including some comments on the women's race.  I just have some other commitments to attend to right now!

Join me tomorrow for more discussion - I'm sure it will be lively!  And thanks for joining our marathon coverage!

Ross

Splits

Men's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:29	14:29	2:54	2:02:13
10	29:08	14:37	2:55	2:02:47
15	43:45	14:39	2:56	2:03:04
20	58:43	14:58	3:00	2:03:53
Halfway	1:01:57			2:03:54
25	1:13:16	14:33	2:55	2:03:40
30	1:28:23	15:07	3:01	2:04:19
35	1:42:35	14:12	2:50	2:03:40
40	1:56:48	14:13	2:51	2:03:13
Finish	2:03:02
Women's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:41	16:41	3:20	2:20:47
10	33:29	16:48	3:22	2:21:47
15	50:09	16:40	3:20	2:21:04
20	1:07:11	17:02	3:24	2:21:44
Halfway	1:10:52			2:21:44
25	1:24:15	17:04	3:25	2:22:12
30	1:41:49	17:34 (not Smith)		2:23:12
35	1:58:37	16:48	3:22	2:23:00
40	2:15:13	16:36	3:19	2:22:38
Finish	2:22:36

 

Race commentary

The men's race is off to the expected (and traditional) fast start.  14:29 through 5km and 29:08 through 10km means they're on course for something under 2:03.  But before getting to excited, that's normal because the first 10km are downhill and very fast.

On the women's side, Kim Smith of New Zealand is well clear. Her 15 km time of 50:09 projects a 2:21, and she has a lead of 53 seconds.  Interesting tactical game developing because Smith is not a rank outsider.  It may be her first foray into the event, but her track pedigree is not the worst.  So the main field are giving her some rope and allowing this large lead and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.  Certainly, 2:21 is not that quick - it will also slow down in the second half, so expect the pack to close down on her in time.

Men at approaching 15 km and Ryan Hall has gone ahead, he's only about 30 m clear and the pack (which is still very large) are behind watching.  Nothing major will come of this, and Mutai has led the field back to Hall.  The group was thinned by the move, and the pace is still very high, but the main protagonists are all there.

Men at 15km and the pace is still super fast.  The time was 43:45, projecting a 2:03:04.   For comparison, Robert Cheruiyot broke the record last year and they went through 15km in 44:48, so they're a full minute faster.  This could be super fast if they just maintain it.

The field has bridged the gap to Hall and they've spread out over the road, about 12 men in the lead pack by my count.  Hall has made a habit of running his own race in the past, and I guess it's a matter of opinion as to whether it works.  It has brought some podium finishes, can it produce a win? 

Kim Smith is through halfway in the women's race - 1:10:52, so she's slowed just a little.  The gap is still large though, 50 seconds to the chase pack, a group that includes all the major protagonists including Kara Goucher and Dire Tune.

The men's race is now being pulled by record holder Robert Cheruiyot as we approach 20km.  Mutai has been paying particularly close attention, whereas Gebre Gebremariam has remained "hidden" in the pack so far.  The same was true in New York last year, he was barely mentioned until Central Park, when he was untouchable.

Hall is playing to the crowd as they run through Wellsley.  Interesting.  He held his hand to his ear, gave the crowd a "come on" in encouragement.  He must be feeling pretty good at sub-2:04 pace...

Kim Smith at 25km, and the pace is slightly slower.  17:04 for the last 5km, following a 17:02 from 15km to 20km.  That slight reduction has seen the chase pack close the gap a little.  It's 46 seconds now, so it's inching down, but nothing dramatic just yet.  Last year this time, there was a 58 second lead and that came down, but it was a different race then.  The chase group is large, but doesn't include Kara Goucher, who has dropped off the chase pack.

The chase group are also within sight of Smith, the long straight roads don't help the breakaway, and so that group will just watch Smith, hold that gap and move in on her, probably when we get to the Newton Hills.

Men at halfway, and it's 1:01:54, and so the pace has slowed, though not by much.  Hall is still being the aggressor, he's at the front, looking behind as if urging the group on.  The group is still large, at this pace (it's almost a minute quicker than London yesterday).

Kim Smith has stopped.  A right leg injury!  And the defending champion Erkesso has dropped out, it sounds like - no splits at 15 or 20km.  Kim Smith seemed to grab her right calf muscle and seems to be flinching.  She's continued to run, but the main field is now much closer.

They'll close this gap quickly and once that happens, expect Smith to bail as well.

There is action on the men's side as well!  Hall is gone from the lead pack and the group is strung out in a long line!  Mutai is up there, Gebremariam is up there, and Hall is not.  The attack was made by the Ethiopian Bekana Daba, who went to the front and glanced behind him repeatedly while ramping up the pace

That pace was fast enough to shed Hall and a host of others, including defending champ Cheruiyot.  There are six men in the lead group now - Daba, Gebremariam, Mutai, Tola.

Kim Smith is caught and she has joined that lead group of women which is also six strong.  Now it's five-strong, and Kim Smith is gone from the lead group.  Her race is pretty much run now.  Dire Tune is there, a former winner, and host of Kenyans.  Names to follow...

The men's race is taking shape as they're near 25km.  Apologies for the lack of split times - the website is not refreshing and the TV coverage is not showing times.  But I can tell you that six men are in the lead group: Mutai, Gebremariam, Daba are there.

There is a lot of cagey running going on on the men's side.  The six are all abreast and looking at one another.  It's going fast then slow and this tactical game will cost time.  The course record was looking under major threat, but if this continues, it may not continue.  The 16th mile of the race was apparently 4:23 which is unbelievably fast - 2:43/km!  That was responsible for the split in that big group, and it accounted for Hall and the defending champion.  Hall is not done though - he is visible just off the back of the group.

1:21 into the men's race and now Mutai has come to the front.  He's clearly strong and aggressive.  Gebremariam is still in the group, which is interesting, he hasn't shown anything at all whereas Mutai is very prominent.  As mentioned earlier, Gebremariam did the same in New York and timed his only move to perfection.

Also in this pack:  Robert Kipchumba, Moses Mosop, Philip Sanga and Bekana Daba.  Meanwhile, Ryan Hall is closing very gradually on the pack.  That tells me that the pace of that group is slowing.

Things are hotting up on the women's side too.  A surprise move by Desiree Davila at the front group, which is now 5 women.  Four Kenyans and Davila.

It will be fascinating to see how Hall gets on in the men's race.  The 5km from 20 to 25km was 14:33 and that was when the damage was done.  Hall held the same pace, and now, as we head to 30km, the pace of the lead group has slowed and Hall has caught up again.  He is therefore the barometer for the main pack - when they attack, he'll be gapped, and when they slow as a result of tactical games, he'll come back on.

Geoffrey Mutai is still the aggressor in the men's race, driving the pace on.  It's a long line and so this is a big push.  As anticipated, Hall is at the back of that line, and so you know the pace has increased.  Hall's even pace is a good indication of the elite pace.

Desiree Davila is still there with the women, and they're down to three, as Alice Timbilil is dropped.  It's an amazing performance from the American.  The pace is holding firm - 16:50 for the last 5km and that's decent but not spectacular.  Davila is being aggressive, not just sitting in, she's actually moving to the front and stretching the Kenyans.  Caroline Kilel of Kenya is paying closest attention, with Sharon Cherop in third.

And Cherop seems stretched to me.  Kilel is hanging in second, but it's Davila who is pushing the pace! They've just hit the two hour mark, I'm sorry I have no splits for you, but the TV coverage is very poor (at least it's there, I know...)  This is about 20 minutes of running left, and the Kenyans are being challenged by a relatively unheralded Desiree Davila.

They're in a long line, the elastic being stretched by this move.  This is a decisive 5 minutes in this race - if Davila can just sustain this pressure, she could do what few thought possible.

The men are at 30km, and the time there is 1:28:23.  The last 5km have been run in 15:07, the slowest of the race but that's expected given the hills.  The group is 8-strong.  The projected time is 2:04:19, and so it's slowing down, but we may yet get that record.  The last 5km of this race can be incredibly long though.  Interesting finish developing.

Geoffrey Mutai is clear in the men's race.  He's gone to the front and this is a decisive move. He's opened up what looks to be 10 seconds in next to no time!  Are we going to see a second Mutai victory in one weekend?  No relation, by the way, but the manner in which they're running the races is remarkably similar between this race and London yesterday!

Desiree Davila still has the two Kenyans for company.  The commentator keeps calling her Dasilva.  He says that the Kenyan with longer legs will have the advantage.  Someone should tell that to Haile Gebrselassie - if height predicted performance, well...

The women's race is still together, three in that group, whereas the men's race has been fragmented by Mutai.  He is making a big bid, a long way out.

There was a time about 10 minutes ago where it seemed that the Kenyans were under stress, but the front three are now together and much tighter, and Kilel looks particularly sprightly.  Kilel is gone!

That's a big move, 2:11 into the race, and Kilel has made a big move, Cherop is following in second, but Davila is behind.  She's trying to hang on, but the Kenyan surge has put her into some difficulty, for now.

Davila has now caught up!  This is a great race among the women.  Boston has produced some awesome women's races in recent years and this is building to be another one!

In the men's race, Mutai still has a small lead, but it seems to be shortening now.  Hall is 57 seconds back, and the splits will be interesting to see later.  Just a word on Mutai, his 5km split from 30 to 35 km was 14:12 - that's 2:50/km and an extra-ordinary move.  That was what gave him the lead, but it's now slowly been reeled in by the chasing Moses Mosop.

2:16 in the women's race and Desiree Davila is still at the front, both Kenyans being towed along behind.  Davila is stretching them - they may not be out of touch, but at this stage, you wouldn't be 5 m back of the leader if you could be 3m back and so the Kenyans are being challenged.  This may well come down to a final sprint.  Caroline Kilel is definitely looking the better of the Kenyans, but this is going to come down to a final sprint.  Only about 6 minutes to go...

Mutai has now been joined by Mosop in the men's race, at 1:50.  There are probably 15 minutes to go, they are on course for a huge course record.  The tailwind has definitely done its job!  Mosop is pushing on and these two will compete for first and second.

The Kenyans are back in front on the women's side.  Davila is still there though, nothing decisive just yet. Davila has attacked.  She's gone super hard with about 3 minutes to go!  Kilel has responded and now counter-attacked, but Davila has dropped Cherop.  Kilel has maybe 5 m on Davila!

Davila responds!  Kilel responds!  300m to go, and this is amazing racing!  Kilel has every answer though and she's finally subdued an amazing challenge from Desiree Davila.  That was track racing between the women, and what a race.

The time is quick, as they come up to the finish line, it's going to be Caroline Kilel to win in 2:22:36 and about 2 seconds back, Desiree Davila of the USA, with Sharon Cherop in third.  That was an epic finish!

To the men - about 7 minutes of running left as they're hitting 40km.  It's Moses Mosop vs Geoffrey Mutai over 2km.  Great, we get an advert break...

Men at 2:00 - Mutai and Mosop are together.  It's Mosop in unchartered territory as this is his debut.  Mutai is forcing the pace, but this too is not decisive.  It will certainly be a new record, and we get to watch an interview with Davila, with only 3 minutes of the men's race.  Great.  What a genius director.  I mean, could you guys not wait literally 4 minutes for this interview and let us see the men's finish?  The mind boggles...

I can't believe that we'd take an interview with 3 minutes to run.  Just wait 4 minutes...

The men are into the final few bends, and they're still locked together, side by side.  They have made the left and now into the finish straight.  It's a sprint for the line at what will surely be around world record time (though it can't be ratified, since it's a downhill course).

Mutai is in front, he's making the first big move and leads by 4 m.  5m.  10 m and it's going to be Mutai.  He'll finish in under the world record time.

It's Geoffrey Mutai and the time is 2:03:01! Incredible!

Moses Mosop is second, a few seconds behind. And Gebre Gebremariam has finished third and Ryan Hall is fourth, a few seconds back of that.

Of course, it can't be a world record, but it does complicate marathon running for a while!  It means we'll now always refer to "that other time, the unratified one" whenever we talk about the event!

But incredibly fast, and that's the power of that tailwind.  It was predicted and the best athletes in the world have delivered on the promise of fast times in great conditions!

Ross

Boston Marathon preview

Boston on the horizon: Wind at the backs, another Mutai win?

After yesterday's spectacularly fast London Marathon, there is more in store today as the rest of the world's elite hit Boston in the 115th running of the world's oldest annual marathon.

The weather forecasts for Boston give reason for optimism for fast times.  Below is an image taken from this Letsrun article, and it shows that the forecast for Boston is about as good as one can possibly expect - cool, with a following wind that, because of Boston's point to point orientation, is basically from behind the whole way (click to enlarge)

That has led to speculation about what the elite field might be able to achieve, some even predicting a time faster than 2:03:59.  It must be pointed out that this would not be recognized as a new world record, because of Boston's point to point course, but it may make for some spectacularly quick times, or splits at the very worst.

Last year in Boston, Robert Cheruiyot achieved what no one thought possible - a sub 2:06 clocking when he scorched the relatively tough course on route to a 2:05:52.  It included an exceptional second half of 62:25 that includes the Newton Hills, and it was a performance that many suggested was worth something in the 2:03-range on one of the faster marathons around the world.  You can read our recap of that race here, just to get in the mood for later.

I can't quite see a sub 2:04, regardless of wind, but if that tailwind does deliver, then we may well see a new course record, particularly given the strength of the field - in addition to Cheruiyot, there is Geoffrey Mutai and Gebre Gebremariam, two exceptionally strong runners, who I'd make favourites ahead of Cheruiyot.  My picks would be Gebremariam to win, Mutai in second, with either Cheruiyot or debutant Moses Mosop in third.

The women's race was also exceptional last year, a real race to the line between Erkesso and Pushkareva.  Last year Erkesso did a "Keitany", in that she went hard very early and built up a big lead.  What she didn't do is hold it all the way, and Pushkareva almost caught her before losing out by 3 seconds in the final straight!  Boston has in fact produced incredible races in the last few women's events, and this year should be no different.

For race previews and to learn who the main protagonists are, check out the Men's Preview and the Women's Preview, courtesy Letsrun.com

As is now "tradition", we'll do a live post throughout the race, updating a table with splits and projected times, as well as 'play-by-play' commentary and thoughts from the race.  So if for any reason you can't get to a TV, do join us later for coverage!  (Assuming Universal Sports' feed works - it wouldn't be the first time I fail to see a marathon as a result of problem...but will do my best!)

Ross

London Marathon Live

London 2011: Mutai and Keitany dominate

Emmanuel Mutai and Mary Keitany have won the 2011 London Marathon.  Mutai shattered the course record in running 2:04:40, which makes him the fourth fastest man in history (with the 5th fastest performance), while Keitany broke 2:20 in her second run.  For both, it was the manner in which the victory was achieved that was so impressive.

Men's race summary

The men's race, as is typical, was started with talk of a world record.  That prospect seemed doomed as early as 15km, when the 5km split was 15:03. That was followed by another 15:03 up to 20km, and the pace was never as fast as had been promised.

Halfway was hit in 62:44, projecting a 2:05:28, which was fast, but even this was a little misleading because the first 5km had been so quick.  Apart from those first 5km, the elite men were running closer to 2:06:30 pace.  In fact, the section from 5km to 30km was run at 2:59.4/km, or 2:06:11 pace, so the fast first 5km and a truly exceptional final 10km were responsible for that time!

The race was really shaken up around 30km though.  That's when Mutai hit the front, and the table below tells the story.  He burned up the roads of London, running 5km splits of 14:26 and 14:19 between 30 and 40km.  It was brutally fast, and no one was able to survive.  Martin Lel fought bravely with Patrick Makau in second, but Mutai opened 20 seconds at 35km and was 53 seconds clear at 40km.  The rest of the elite group was even more fragmented, pre-race favourite Kebede slipping over 2 minutes behind in this 10km stretch.

Mutai's final 12km were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54/km and 2:02 marathon pace!  That surge was enough to bring the overall time down enormously, and contribute to a 61:56 second half, which was the only negative split of the elite men's race.  Lel and Makau ran 63 minutes for the second half, everyone else was 64 minutes or longer.  Admittedly, many will have shut off having seen the win go away, exaggerating these times slightly.  So Mutai, who was second in London and New York last year, has gone one better by winning and a lot better by breaking 2:05 and joining a select group of marathon superstars. 

Women's race summary

Keitany, meanwhile, exploded onto the marathon scene, having started in New York last year, she's now established herself as perhaps THE woman to beat.  This is always the case when such a great half-marathon runner comes up, but the question mark is always whether they'll be able to translate their performances up.  Keitany answered that question with a resounding yes today, running an exceptional second half to win in 2:19:19.

The women hit halfway in 1:10:37, which was fast, but gave no indication of what was to happen.  It was pre-race Shobukhova who surged at halfway, but all that did was ignite Keitany, who went to the front and then never looked back.  A 16:09, 16:01 and a 16:14 followed for the next three 5km splits, and the gap was over 1 minute.

Keitany slowed slightly at the end, and Shobukhova bravely clawed back some of the time she'd lost, finishing in a PB of 2:20:15.  But it was an emphatic win for Keitany, who ran with such confidence.  Her second half was an incredible 68:42, a massive negative split set up by the fast section from 20 to 35km.  It also suggests more to come from Keitany, who must surely be capable of a sub-2:19, and it makes her the marathon runner to beat among the women.  With London 2012 on the horizon, the rest of the world will be taking notice!

Below are the splits, and below those tables are my "in-race" thoughts, as the race developed in chronological order.  As always, we'll be doing the same for Boston tomorrow, where ideal conditions should help set up another great race!  So join us then!

Splits

Men's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:34	14:34	2:55	2:02:56
10	29:23	14:49	2:58	2:03:59
15	44:26	15:03	3:01	2:04:59
20	59:29	15:03	3:01	2:05:30
Halfway	1:02:44			2:05:28
25	1:14:16	14:47	2:57	2:05:21
30	1:29:20	15:04	3:01	2:05:39
35	1:43:36	14:26	2:53	2:05:06
40	1:58:08	14:19	2:52	2:04:34
Finish	2:04:40
Women's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:16	16:16	3:15	2:17:16
10	32:54	16:38	3:20	2:18:49
15	49:50	16:56	3:23	2:20:11
20	1:07:01	17:11	3:26	2:21:23
Halfway	1:10:37			2:21:14
25	1:23:10	16:09	3:14	2:20:22
30	1:39:11	16:01	3:12	2:19:30
35	1:55:25	16:14	3:15	2:19:19
40	2:12:07	16:42	3:20	2:19:22
Finish	2:19:19

 

In-race commentary time line

Women start

The women are running 5:15 to 5:20 per mile early on, which is a reasonable start - projects just under 2:20.  But, they're just through 4km now, so a long way to go.  The elite group is maybe 10 to 12 large.  The commentator keeps saying that Keitany is running her first marathon - she's not.  She came 3rd in New York last year.  She's showing very aggressively at the front so far, but everyone is in touch.

5km in 16:16.  2:17 projected, so that's quick, but the start of London is slightly down (from 3km to 4km - the mile there was 5:05) so it's always reasonably quick.  Expect it to slow down between 5km and 10km.

10km in 32:54, so it has slowed a little - 16:38 for the last 5km, including a slow mile of 5:48.  Mikitenko dropped off just around 5km, but other than that, all the major contenders are there.  Keitany running off to the side, Shobukova paying close attention to the pace-maker (and there is only one, which is strange)

Last mile in 5:02, so that must presumably be a downhill mile following the slight uphill.  Either that or the pace is fast-slow, but that's less likely.

Men start

The men are about to start.  What an incredible field.  Makau vs Kebede is probably the big battle, Makau being the World # 1 last year, and Kebede being beaten only by Wanjiru in that epic Chicago race.  But there are maybe 6 men with a good chance of winning.  Martin Lel is the dangerous unknown - the most incredible racer in the marathon a few years ago, he's returning from injuries that have forced withdrawals from his last few races, so I don't expect, but hope for something from him.

At 15km, the women are on course for 2:20:11, so it is slowing.  It's gone 3:15/km to 3:20/km to 3:23/km. The pacemaker has been joined by Shobukhova, who is probably more responsible for the pace than the official pacemaker.  Very confident way to run.  Keitany and Kiplagat, the big Kenyan challengers are in the pack now.

Men at 5km in 14:34.  Very fast, projecting a 2:02, but don't get too excited - as we said for the women, the 4th kilometer is downhill so the first 5km are very quick.  But it's a good sign of aggressive running so far.  17 men in the lead group, excluding 5 pacemakers.

The front men's group has now split, and of the five pacemakers, there are now only two in the front group.  There was a plan for a second paced group to run for around 2:06 - 2:07 (compared to a 62 min through halfway for the first group), so they have now separated into the "hierarchies".  There are nine in the group at the front, excluding those two pacemakers.

Women at 20km, and the progressive decline in speed has continued - the last 5km were at 3:26/km, so it's gotten slower by around 3sec/km since the start.  The projection is now for 2:21:23, and given her finishing speed, this will suit Shobukhova nicely.  Keitany may also enjoy the slower pace, given her half marathon credentials.

Shobukhova drives very hard through the halfway mark, which is reached in 1:10:37.  That move didn't achieve too much, maybe she was just testing the Kenyans behind her.  Very aggressive, that's a long way out to be driving at the front.  She obviously feels good.  Given how quick her finish is, it's a bit surprising to see that early push.  The pacemaker is gone, so now it's a race.

Men at 10km, and it has slowed just a little, but that was expected.  The last 5km were in 14:49, and the overall projected time is now 2:03:59, which happens to be the World Record.  The 14:49 is a touch slower though, if they were to maintain that, they'll do just inside 2:05.  The next 10km will tell us...

Mary Keitany has come to the front of the women's race now, and she's the big danger.  Shobukhova's move has been the catalyst for an overall increase in the aggression of the race.  The lead group is now seven, Keitany at the front and Shobukhova following her.  Remember that Shobukhova ran the final 2.2km of Chicago faster than the men's winner did, so she has serious speed at the end of the marathon.  A race between her and the half-marathon record holder is a great prospect!

Keitany is actually about 4 m clear.  She's driving very hard.  Shobukhova is gradually pulling the group back towards Keitany.  It's all happening very early in the women's race.  The 20-25km split will be very interesting.  This pace is doing some serious damage to the group behind her, they're in a long line and gaps are appearing everywhere!  She's surged again and opened a lead on Shobukhova.

Keitany has about 30 m on the chasers now.  And Shobukhova is no longer doing the leading in the chase group.  This is a serious move, it's opened the race up completely!  This is the kind of racing not seenin women's marathon running.

At 25km, Keitany is six seconds clear.  Her last 5km was in 16:09, the fastest of the race and that's what has done the damage.  The group behind are split and this is the race's big move.  Kiplagat is chasing, followed by Kebede, Bekele and Shobukhova, who started the racing at halfway and now being severely tested!

The men are at 15km in 44:26, having covered the last 5km in 15:03.  That will disappoint the race organizers, having asked for a 62 at halfway.  The pace is considerably slower than that now, and so any thoughts of the world record are fading fast.

Around 28km, and Shobukhova has moved into second, but Keitany has a gap of maybe 30 seconds.  She's out of sight as they go through a twisty section and Keitany is looking superb, so fluid.  The only danger for Keitany now is the distance and whether she'll pay for this surge.  The pace hasn't slowed behind, and so Keitany is still holding a pace of around 3:15/km, which is incredible running.  Last year's winning time was 2:21:59 by Shobukhova, this should be substantially faster.

Keitany has reached 30 km in 1:39:11, with a last 5km of 16:01, so she's actually gotten even faster!  It's extra-ordinary front running.  And while it's not entirely unchartered territory, to move this far out in only your second major marathon is exceptional running.  The projected time has now dropped to 2:19:30, and the way Keitany is running, even 2:18 is not out of the question.  The gap to the chasing Shobukhova & co is 33 seconds, and so they're running 16:25 for the last 5km, which is good pace, but Keitany is soaring at the front!

The men at 20km, and the pace is still pretty slow.  15:03 for the last 5km, and so that's 30:06 from 10km to 20km.  And that's not what the agreed pace was.  The halfway split is 62:44, and the commentators are projecting 2:05:30.  That's a bit misleading, because the first 5km was so quick.

The truth is that given the last 10km, unless the pace picks up, they'll run around 2:06:20.  Interesting to see how the racing in the second half affects this.  Expect it to get quicker, but the sub 2:05 is looking out of reach for now.  It'll take serious racing to bring them under that barrier.

All the main protagonists are there.  Mo Trafeh has dropped off, 14 seconds down at halfway, but he was running above himself to be there, and now will try to settle one something around 2:07 pace.  The lead group is 10 men, Makau, Kebede, Lel, Kwambai and Gharib are all still in that group.

Keitany has hit 35km, and the pace is still strong, though understandably has slowed somewhat.  The last 5km were covered in 16:14.  The lead has grown - Shobukhova and Kiplagat are now 1:09 behind, so she's opened up another 36 seconds in the last 5km!  She's unlikely to be coming back and marathon running has a new star!

The men have increased the pace, and at 25km, they're speeding up again.  The last 5km were in 14:47, which is 2:57/km pace and brings the projected time down.  The group is still 10 deep, one pacemaker there.  Kebede and Makau paying closer attention now.

Keitany through 40km in 2:12:07, so she has slowed - the last 5km has been covered at 3:20/km.  The gap to Shobukhova, who is now clear in second, is 1:07, so that hasn't changed since the 35km mark (it was 1:09 then.  She'll break 2:20 as well, comfortably - right now it's projected at 2:19:22, so expect 2:19:30-something.

The men are at 30km  - 1:29:20, and it's just outside 15 for the last 5km.  So again, slower than we all thought it would be.  Martin Lel is still there, and looking so smooth.  If his training was not quite geared towards London, it'll start to tell soon.  But if he's there at 40km, then his finishing ability (assuming three years haven't eroded it) will be hard to match.

The race has now begun though, the pacemaker is gone and the big guns are to the front.  The elite group is down to six men - Mutai, Kebede, Lel, Makau, dos Santos.

Keitany wins!  2:19:19!  Women's marathon running has a new superstar!  Whenever a super quick half-marathon athlete steps up, you expect great things, and Keitany is a fearsome half marathon athlete, so she is delivering on her promise now!  She'll be a big favourite in London next year, and the rest of the world will have taken notice!

Shobukhova coming in second with a super quick finish, she'll run a PB in 2:20:15 and a great run, but put into the shade by an amazing performance from Mary Keitany.

And now we get to see the rest of the women finish while the men's race is being decided.  This happens every year.  Let's see who finishes 18th in the women's race, forget the men's winners...

The men's race is on!  Mutai is pushing the pace and it's Martin Lel following!  Lel is there, and challenging.  Kebede is in third, Makau in fourth, but gapped from the front three just slightly, and we're coming up to 35 km.

No wait, we're going to see the women again.  We'll wait for Jo Pavey, I'm sure.  I appreciate the local interest, of course, but this is a lot like having a car dealership and putting the Ferraris and Porsches in the back, with the Toyotas and Volkswagens out front.  This is a global event, they need to cater to it - you can't grow the sport by "hiding" the superstars.  Very ordinary.

Ok, she's done now for the love of marathon running, can we PLEASE see the men's race!  No?  Ok, let's stick with the 20th best women for a little longer, and NOT watch the men...  London, you have truly outdone yourself this year.

Oh, there is a men's race after all.  They're at 35km, and Emmanuel Mutai is clear.  He covered the last 5km in 14:26, an exceptional surge in pace.  That was enough to drop Lel, who was "last man standing", and Mutai is 20 seconds clear!  That gap was created very quickly - at 32 km, they were together, and so Lel may have hit something of a wall.

This is the race's decisive move, with mile splits of 4:30 and 4:31 (2:47 per kilometer for 3km).  Lel is second, 20 seconds down at 35km, and Makau a second back of him.  The pre-race favourite, Tsegay Kebede, who spoke a good game of a world record before the race, has been pushed right back.  At 35km, he's 36 seconds down in 5th place.  In fourth is Dos Santos of Brazil, but we'll get a much clearer picture at 40km in a few minutes' time.

From the camera shots, no one will catch Mutai, he has clear road behind and ahead, and he'll win this race with about 12 minutes to go.  Meanwhile, we'll switch back to the women, and watch the women finishing in 2:38 or slower.  And we'll stay with these pictures, to see a 2:41 marathon runner, while the elite men running 2:05 are ignored.  Go London coverage!  It's not difficult to split the feeds, the international feed can easily be separated from what is shown locally.

Mutai at 40km, and the time is 1:58:05, and Mutai is flying!  He's going to break the course record, and run one of the fastest marathons in history!  And that's off the back of a relatively conservative period from 5km to 30km - 62:44 at halfway, and the section 5km to 30km was run at 2:06:11 pace.  So Mutai is going to go under 62 minutes for the second half!

Exceptional running!  Martin Lel has hung in there and is second, 53 seconds down, with Makau just behind him in third.  Makau will probably catch him.  That means that Lel and Makau have maintained the pace and are on course for around 2:05:30, which is exactly what the halfway split predicted. So Mutai has been the man to emerge from the pack today with an outrageously fast second half.  His last 5km were covered in 14:19, following on from a 14:26, and that's 2:52/km.

Mutai has won in 2:04:40, making him the fourth fastest man in history, behind Gebrselassie, Kibet and Kwambai (Geb has run faster twice, incidentally).  It's a course record, and it's been achieved with a second half of 61:56, which is super quick.  The final 12km, incidentally, from 30km, were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54 pace, or a 2:02 marathon!

Martin Lel has won a sprint for second in 2:05:45, and that is an exceptional comeback from the multiple London champion.  Makau is third only a second behind, and dos Santos has finished fourth.  Tsegay Kebede, meanwhile, has finished fifth in 2:07:47.  That's pretty disappointing for him, given the pre-race talk and his last few performances.  It's made more so by the fact that the halfway split of 62:44 was not that quick, so his second half was 65:03, which he'll be disappointed with.  A bad day at the office.

The pacing - only one faster second half


An interesting note on pacing - the halfway split was reached in 62:44, which predicts at 2:05:28.  And so the only elite athlete in the race to negative split was Mutai.  That's unusual, but what's more amazing is the size of his negative split, compared to the positive split in some of the other elites.


For example, Mutai's difference was 62:44 - 61:56, a 48 second differential faster!  Lel and Makau ran the second half in 62:51, so 7 seconds slower.  dos Santos was 63:50 or 66 seconds slower, and Kebede ran his second half 2:19 slower (65:03 vs 62:44).  

So a race of attrition for all but the top 3, and especially for Mutai, who aided by his final 12km in 2:54/km was absolutely exceptional.  The large spread across the top 8 was the result of Mutai's amazing surge, combined with a big drop-off in pace by almost everyone else.  One would not have thought that the men finishing in 5th or lower would run 65 minutes for the second half...


Ross

The Sub 2 Hour marathon debate

The sub 2-hour marathon:  Science fact and projecting performance

I hate repeats.  Well, that is, I usually hate repeats, unless there's a very specific reason to watch the same thing twice.  And I figured that with the London and Boston Marathons only a few days away, there is no better time for a repeat than today.

The BBC yesterday did a radio show and carried this article on the possibilities of a sub-2 hour marathon.  The article is interesting and it touches on most of the points that we have looked at in the last few years, because this is by no means a new debate.  In fact, it seems to cycle around once every six months on the marathon-carousel.  Every time we have a big marathon on the horizon, people ask this question.

Personally, it seems a bit premature to me to be talking about a sub-2 hour marathon now, when the first human performance under 2:04 was as recent as 2008.  And then, by only 1 second!  To knock off another 240 seconds and break that barrier is getting a little carried away.  Let's get under 2:03 first, and then see how the future looks! That could easily take two generations of runner, another 10 years.  The big names are weighing in though - Gebrselassie and Radcliffe (who know a thing or two about marathon records) both suggest it will happen within 20 years.  A scientist predicts 28 years.  I suspect they're all a little optimistic...

The scientific merit - digging deeper

However, it is a question that has a great deal of scientific merit.  Both the mathematical modeling of performance evolution and the physiology of breaking 2 hours in the marathon are extremely interesting, and that's where the BBC article doesn't quite do justice to this question.

That is, the BBC touch on all the aspects - they mention the history, the evolution, the physiology that may be required, and the conditions that have to come together, but they varnish the surface rather than really getting stuck into it.  And so with that, I thought I'd take the opportunity to re-post an article I wrote about 7 months ago.  It asks "What is the physiology required for the 2 hour marathon?"  That article is below.

That article is below.  Also, the question is discussed from a historical point of view and using a slightly different approach to what you'll normally read in the media, in the following posts:

• Who will break 2 hours for the marathon?  And when?  Lessons from the shorter distances
• Why the marathon record was destined to drop, and why it may be about to level off again

Hopefully those three can keep you intrigued while I get my head around 10,000 hours and the next in the series on training and talent development!

Ross
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The sub-2 hour marathon: What physiology will it take? (originally published September 4, 2010)

The other day, I did a post looking at the likelihood of a sub-2 hour marathon, inspired by an interesting article published in the Journal of Applied Physiology.  That was part 1, focusing on the historical evolution of world records, not only in the marathon, but over shorter 10km and 21km distances, because I'm of the opinion that a 2-hour marathon will only be possible when the 10,000m times and half-marathon times improve by at least 30 seconds and 90 seconds respectively.  So, contrary to the JAP paper, which suggested that the barrier would be broken in between 15 and 25 years, I think it will take many, many more years.

Today sees the promised Part 2, looking more at the physiology, and specifically the running economy that will be required in order to reel off 42,195 m at an average pace of 2:50/km.  It's a conceptual post, so bear with the length and the "unanswerable" questions.

And I must emphasize the point, picked up by some of you, that physiologically, our ability to separate a 2:03:59 from a 1:59:59 is limited.  Both performances are close to the "limit", and given that elite athletes are rarely tested and measured in the laboratory, and that the physiological variability is larger than the difference in performance we're looking for, you won't reach the end of this kind of discussion with a concrete answer.  However, it's an interesting process, nonetheless.

Running economy re-introduced

Way back in 2007, we did a short series on Running Economy, the first post of which can be read here.  Running economy is a measure of how much oxygen you use when running at a given (sub-maximal) speed.  The more economical the runner, the less oxygen is used, and this is crucial, because it is a characteristic of great runners that they are much more economical.

The graph below, which is redrawn from a paper by Foster and Lucia (2006), shows the running economy of a few different groups of runners.

Here, running economy has been measured as the volume of oxygen used per kilogram to run one kilometer (think of fuel economy in a car - one gallon takes you x-kilometers).  So, the Europeans shown by the pink line in the above graph are using approximately 210 ml/kg to run 1 kilometer.  You can convert this to the actual VO2 quite easily, if you know the running speed.  For example, at 20km/hour, 1 kilometer takes 3 minutes, and so these European athletes are using 70ml/kg/min at that pace.

The Africans, shown in red, are considerably more economical (this is one of the more interesting debates in physiology - there are obviously overlaps, but generally, African runners appear more economical than Europeans).  The VO2 of the Africans at 20km/hour is equal to 190 ml/kg/km, or around 63 ml/kg/min, about 10% lower than the Europeans.

Can economy and capacity predict performance?

So, knowing this, we can begin to project what kind of physiology is required in order to run a sub-2 hour marathon.  The method used is very similar to that used for cycling, when we looked at the power outputs achievable during the Tour de France in our recent Tour coverage.

There are of course assumptions that must be made, but as I tried to explain for cycling, if you make the "conservative" assumptions, you still produce an interesting picture of what is physiologically plausible.  This is an exercise in theory, not proof.  It is the first word in a debate, not the last, so bear with some assumptions and let's see what the picture reveals.

The assumptions

The first assumption that you have to make is what relative intensity an athlete can sustain for a given period, two hours in this case.

This is not too much of a guess for elite athletes, but it does vary considerably with training - an elite athlete is usually able to sustain running speeds that require about 85% - 90% of VO2max for about one hour.  Marathons are usually run at an intensity corresponding to approximately 80% of VO2max, while 10,000m is run at around 95% of VO2max.

So for a two-hour marathon, we can make the assumption that the intensity will be equal to between 80% and 85% of maximum.

Next one has to assume VO2max, the "capacity".  This is more of a lottery, because the range, even in elite athletes, can be quite wide.  Zersenay Tadese of Eritrea was measured at 83 ml/kg/min, but some elite runners have been measured as low as 70 ml/kg/min (the reason they are still competitive, incidentally, is likely due to exceptionally good running economy). 

And then finally, you must assume running economy.  This is the key assumption, because as the graph above shows, it varies quite considerably.  The east Africans have been measured as having running economies in the range of 180 to 190 ml/kg/km.  Zersenay Tadese was reported to be the most economical runner in history, using only 150 ml/kg/km.  This is so low that I'm actually skeptical about the value.  (For more on this, check out this post from 2007, and see later in this post)

Nevertheless, using three assumptions, we can create quite an interesting picture of what the sub-2 hour marathon runner will look like, at least in terms of his 'engine'.

The graph below is the first step towards bringing all three assumptions together.  It converts running economy into a VO2 (in ml/kg/min) at 2-hour marathon pace (± 2:50/km).

Obviously, this picture is only partly complete.  The next question to ask is whether an average VO2 of say 67 ml/kg/min for a marathon (at the running economy of 190 ml/kg/min on the graph) is reasonable or not?  Can an athlete sustain that intensity for the required 2 hours?  Obviously, this question is not answerable in theory, only through measurement, but we can get an idea of whether it is reasonable by asking what kind of maximal capacity is required for each of the above VO2 values to be reasonable.

The graph below attempts to establish this.  It estimates the VO2max of the runner for two conditions:  One is that the athlete is running at 80% of maximum intensity (shown in red) or 85% of maximum intensity (shown in green).

So, for a given running economy, you can now see what maximal capacity might be required, or vice-versa, given a VO2max, you can estimate the running economy required for two different conditions.

Two examples:  High economy vs lower economy

The white lines show 2 examples.  Example A is based on the measured economy of African athletes (including some Olympic medalists) who have a measured economy of around 190 ml/kg/min.  At 2-hour marathon pace, they use 67 ml/kg/min.  That athlete, running at 80% of maximum, must have a VO2 max of 84 ml/kg/min.  If they were able to sustain 85% (which I don't think is possible), they would have an estimated VO2max of 79 ml/kg/min.

Example B shows the European athletes plotted in the very first graph of this post.  Here, a running economy of 210 ml/kg/km requires a much higher maximal capacity; in this case, either 92 ml/kg/min (at 80%) or 87 ml/kg/min (at 85%).  The point is clearly that in order to run a sub-2 hour marathon, the athlete requires BOTH an exceptionally good economy, and a high maximal capacity.  I guess the third option is that they could get away with worse economy if they were able to sustain 90% of maximum for that length of time, but I don't see this as very likely (but not impossible).

The Zersenay Tadese example:  Something missing in the picture

So where does this leave us on the question of the sub-2 hour marathon?  On paper, or in theory, a two-hour marathon is possible because we have seen running economies of 180 to 190ml/kg/km, and we also see runners with VO2max values of 80 ml/kg/min.  According to the graph, a runner with these "characteristics" can run the 2-hour marathon.  However, I've yet to see the two together, with the exception of  Zersenay Tadese, with his measured economy of 150 ml/kg/min and VO2max of 83 ml/kg/min.  However, as I said earlier, there's something not quite right there...

Here's the problem:  With that kind of economy, Tadese would be able to run at a speed of 2:50/km while using only 53 ml/kg/min.  Think about that for a moment:  he is running at only 64% of his maximal capacity, at 2-hour marathon pace.  He would be jogging to the world record if that was true.

Even his 10km pace of ± 2:40/km represents an underperformance, because at that pace, he would only be using 56 ml/kg/min, or 68% of his maximum.  We know that elite athletes run at at least 90% of maximum for 10km, which means Tadese should be sustaining a VO2 of 75 ml/kg/min, which, given his economy, predicts a 10 km time of just outside 20 minutes!

Clearly, something is wrong with that picture.  I actually emailed Carl Foster about this a while back, to ask about it, and he graciously replied, but then my computer got stolen, along with that email.  So Carl, if you are reading this, feel free to chime in!  I seem to recall that it had something to do with the timing of measurements - Tadese's VO2max and running economy were not measured at the same time, and therefore using them together created a problem.  And this is crucial - when we make this kind of estimation, we're assuming that VO2max and economy are measured together.  And if they are, then the more economical a runner, the lower their VO2max is likely to be.

The VO2max-economy relationship

For this reason, the combination of high VO2max and exceptional running economy is likely to be very rare.  So, let's get back to that graph above - does the athlete shown by "Example A" exist?  Is there an athlete with such exception economy AND such a high VO2max?  Or is the athlete with that economy likely to have a VO2 max closer to 70 ml/kg/min?

That is a question I don't have the answer to.  What is clear though is that even now, the current world record represents physiology that is close to this theoretical picture presented above.  That is, the current record equates to a runner with an economy between 180 and 200 ml/kg/km and a VO2max between 75 and 85 ml/kg/min.  Both of these are reasonable assumptions, which would lead one to conclude that a sub-2 hour marathon is physiologically plausible.

However, as I emphasized in my previous post, it's not as simple as this.  First, there are other "limiting" factors - thermoregulation is one that has not been mentioned yet.  To run a sub-2 hour marathon requires significant heat loss to offset the heat production, and so the limit may well have little to do with oxygen use, and everything to do with the avoidance of hyperthermia.  This factor certainly narrows down the opportunities to break the world record, because only a cool day will suffice - Dubai, Berlin and Chicago have all produced days that are too warm in recent years.  As the 2-hour mark is neared, that becomes even more crucial, and that's a big reason why I don't think we'll see more than one, small incremental improvement every five or so years.

And then finally, I must stress that this 'pre-occupation' with VO2max and oxygen as the determinants of performance is only part of the picture.  Performance is the sum of far more physiology than just VO2max and economy, and that's why the best indication of whether that sub-2 hour performance will be possible is, in my opinion, to ask what the implications are for performance over other distances.  If the shorter distances don't improve, then the longer one is unlikely to, and you can go through this same exercise for 10km and 21km events and you realise that we're right on the limit of physiological performance.  Doping would shift that limit, yes, and perhaps training.  But I still don't see it happening within the next 20 years.

Perhaps I will be wrong...as always, your thoughts are welcome!

Ross