To date A-Rod is averaging 36 dingers a season to Bonds 34. This average together with his faster pace to 500 predict A-Rod will surpass Bonds in approximately seven years when he is 38 and in his 21st major league season (Figure 1). While entirely possible, this is actually a big ask as it means A-Rod must average close to 36 home runs a season between now and then, and furthermore he appears to have had his peak home run season five years ago in 2002 when he was 26 and hit 57 home runs (Figure 2). It also means he must keep playing well past 20 major league seasons, and while there are a number of players who have not only done this but gone on to seal their place in the Hall of Fame after 20+ years, this is a long career and A-Rod (or any player) might find it challenging to keep the competitive fire burning for another 7-8 years. In addition he must remain healthy enough to keep his up output.
For now Bonds takes the spotlight and shares it with no one. The Commissioner of baseball was not even there to witness the record, instead sending a vice president to stand in. However Hank Aaron, who recently has shunned Bonds, pre-recorded a video that was played during the celebratory game stoppage. In it he expressed hope that Bonds breaking this momentous record would inspire many others to chase their own dreams.
Keep chasing, A-Rod. . .keep chasing. . .