Beijing Women's Marathon preview

Can Paula pull off a miracle? Radcliffe prepares for the Marathon. But is it simply too hot?

Can Paula Radcliffe possibly pull off the Olympic Marathon title? The birth of a child, a toe-injury, a stress fracture, a spider bite, the memory of Athens 2004, are just some of the obstacles Radcliffe has cleared leading into Beijing's Marathon in one week from Saturday. Those "obstacles" seem insurmountable, especially when combined with the heat and humidity in Beijing, which certainly do not favour Radcliffe's size (compared to her rivals, that is).

Yet Radcliffe is there, having arrived in Macau, where the UK team is doing their Beijing preparations, this week. She arrived with a full entourage, including physio, husband and daughter, and is committed to running in Beijing. But can she win it?

I really hope so. I think that of any athlete, Radcliffe deserves Olympic success. The world record holder, London, New York and World Championship marathon winner, she is one athlete who (if ever this were true) deserves an Olympic medal (of any colour, though Gold would seem appropriate). However, as much as I'd love for it to happen, I do feel that it's highly unlikely, given what has gone on in the months leading up to this race.

Memories of Athens and a four year battle

Four years ago in Athens, she ended her race on the side of road, in tears, as her Olympic dream (and rivals) disappeared into the distance after 35km of racing. That particular DNF was blamed on a reaction she had to anti-inflammatory medication she took the week before the race to treat a leg injury. (Personally, I suspect that the heat has as much to do with it, but more on that a little later)

Since then, Radcliffe bounced back, winning New York shortly in the same year, but the last four years have been tempered by constant struggles with injury, and the birth of her child, of course, from which she made a huge come-back last year to win New York again.

Injury concerns again and an anti-gravity treadmill

And it's injury that threatens Radcliffe's 2008 Olympics. Earlier this year, she passed up the chance to run London, because of a toe injury. That was only the beginning, because it soon emerged that she had a mild stress fracture of the femur, which, as you can appreciate, is a fairly significant injury for an athlete who would likely be training more than 180 km a week in the build-up to the Beijing Marathon.

Doctors reportedly told her that it would be impossible to put in the required training to run a competitive marathon in Beijing. She went off to her home in the Pyrenees, where she reportedly put in 9 hours a day of rehabilitation and training. Training that included aqua-classes, pool running and the use of an anti-gravity treadmill.

The anti-gravity treadmill

The anti-gravity treadmill is designed to allow the user to run without the impact loading of normal running - recently published evidence suggests that the impact forces on the legs can be reduced by 44% using the treadmill. It works, incidentally, by using positive air pressure around the lower body to support body weight during treadmill running, though I must confess that I've not used one (judging by our SA team "Beljing" kits, you might not be surprised to hear that we probably don't even have these treadmills here yet).

Of course, that's good and well, but one of the biggest limiting factors in running are those very same impact factors - the eccentric loading, where the muscles have to repeatedly decelerate the limb. That "eccentric fatigue" is likely a huge component of the overall inability of athlete's to speed up or maintain pace towards the end of races.

And so while Paula Radcliffe has likely done significant training, and developed the "aerobic" (for want of a better word) fitness capacity that is required for a marathon, whether her legs will stand up beyond 30 km of the race is another question.

Unlucky athlete or too many excuses?

Unfortunately, perhaps as a result of her being so exceptional in the 2001-2002 seasons, when she set the world alight with her brilliant solo-running performances, Radcliffe has taken a lot of criticism in the recent past. Media and followers of the sport tend to throw out words like "choker", "mental meltdown" and "collapse" to describe her Athens performance. And the latest litany of injuries have further entrenched the belief, among some, that she just has one too many excuses before the race. To add to her injury concerns, it was recently reported that she suffered a spider bite that kept her off her feet for a further four days.

It's difficult to know whether she's just really unlucky, or whether the brighter than usual spotlight on her tends to focus our attention on these small (but perhaps common) obstacles that Radcliffe faces. I tend to think it's the latter. I certainly don't agree that Athens was a "meltdown" - it was a physiological impossibility. And unfortunately, Beijing may be headed the same way...

The heat - perhaps the biggest factor of all?

We know that people who are smaller in size perform better in the heat. We discussed this earlier this year in our Fatigue Series, but to sum it up, the smaller you are, the less heat you produce, and you are better able to lose that heat relative to a larger runner. Therefore, a smaller runner will have a lower rate of heat storage running at the same speed as a larger runner. This, in turn, means that a smaller runner can run faster before reaching a very high, potentially limiting body temperature.

In fact, it is mathematically possible to work out what "limiting" speed runners could run, and also how the body size affects this speed. Of course, you can't simply do the math and know who will win - we could just as well scrap the Games and award the medals. But it's important to recognize that all things being equal (which they rarely are), the smaller athlete will win in the heat. There is much more to come on this topic, but we'll save it until the week of the marathon, when we do a specific preview. But let's just say that it's possible to work out how fast it's possible to run in the heat, and the larger runner is at a major disadvantage!

Now, Radcliffe is, by marathon standards, a relatively large runner, at least compared to the Japanese and Chinese women she'll race against. That means that whatever advantage she enjoys performance-wise (an advantage that has been narrowed, if not removed, because of her injuries) is immediately eroded in the heat. I therefore believe that like in Athens, Radcliffe faces what is almost a physiologically impossible task, and only if she were many minutes better than the other women in the race would she maintain an advantage over them. The field in Beijing is strong, however, and I just feel that despite her guts, strength and ability, this won't be her race.

But, then the Olympics throw up a surprise, an inspirational story. Perhaps Paula will be that story. I hope so...but I doubt it.

Ross