London Marathon Live

London 2011: Mutai and Keitany dominate

Emmanuel Mutai and Mary Keitany have won the 2011 London Marathon.  Mutai shattered the course record in running 2:04:40, which makes him the fourth fastest man in history (with the 5th fastest performance), while Keitany broke 2:20 in her second run.  For both, it was the manner in which the victory was achieved that was so impressive.

Men's race summary

The men's race, as is typical, was started with talk of a world record.  That prospect seemed doomed as early as 15km, when the 5km split was 15:03. That was followed by another 15:03 up to 20km, and the pace was never as fast as had been promised.

Halfway was hit in 62:44, projecting a 2:05:28, which was fast, but even this was a little misleading because the first 5km had been so quick.  Apart from those first 5km, the elite men were running closer to 2:06:30 pace.  In fact, the section from 5km to 30km was run at 2:59.4/km, or 2:06:11 pace, so the fast first 5km and a truly exceptional final 10km were responsible for that time!

The race was really shaken up around 30km though.  That's when Mutai hit the front, and the table below tells the story.  He burned up the roads of London, running 5km splits of 14:26 and 14:19 between 30 and 40km.  It was brutally fast, and no one was able to survive.  Martin Lel fought bravely with Patrick Makau in second, but Mutai opened 20 seconds at 35km and was 53 seconds clear at 40km.  The rest of the elite group was even more fragmented, pre-race favourite Kebede slipping over 2 minutes behind in this 10km stretch.

Mutai's final 12km were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54/km and 2:02 marathon pace!  That surge was enough to bring the overall time down enormously, and contribute to a 61:56 second half, which was the only negative split of the elite men's race.  Lel and Makau ran 63 minutes for the second half, everyone else was 64 minutes or longer.  Admittedly, many will have shut off having seen the win go away, exaggerating these times slightly.  So Mutai, who was second in London and New York last year, has gone one better by winning and a lot better by breaking 2:05 and joining a select group of marathon superstars. 

Women's race summary

Keitany, meanwhile, exploded onto the marathon scene, having started in New York last year, she's now established herself as perhaps THE woman to beat.  This is always the case when such a great half-marathon runner comes up, but the question mark is always whether they'll be able to translate their performances up.  Keitany answered that question with a resounding yes today, running an exceptional second half to win in 2:19:19.

The women hit halfway in 1:10:37, which was fast, but gave no indication of what was to happen.  It was pre-race Shobukhova who surged at halfway, but all that did was ignite Keitany, who went to the front and then never looked back.  A 16:09, 16:01 and a 16:14 followed for the next three 5km splits, and the gap was over 1 minute.

Keitany slowed slightly at the end, and Shobukhova bravely clawed back some of the time she'd lost, finishing in a PB of 2:20:15.  But it was an emphatic win for Keitany, who ran with such confidence.  Her second half was an incredible 68:42, a massive negative split set up by the fast section from 20 to 35km.  It also suggests more to come from Keitany, who must surely be capable of a sub-2:19, and it makes her the marathon runner to beat among the women.  With London 2012 on the horizon, the rest of the world will be taking notice!

Below are the splits, and below those tables are my "in-race" thoughts, as the race developed in chronological order.  As always, we'll be doing the same for Boston tomorrow, where ideal conditions should help set up another great race!  So join us then!

Splits

Men's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:34	14:34	2:55	2:02:56
10	29:23	14:49	2:58	2:03:59
15	44:26	15:03	3:01	2:04:59
20	59:29	15:03	3:01	2:05:30
Halfway	1:02:44			2:05:28
25	1:14:16	14:47	2:57	2:05:21
30	1:29:20	15:04	3:01	2:05:39
35	1:43:36	14:26	2:53	2:05:06
40	1:58:08	14:19	2:52	2:04:34
Finish	2:04:40
Women's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:16	16:16	3:15	2:17:16
10	32:54	16:38	3:20	2:18:49
15	49:50	16:56	3:23	2:20:11
20	1:07:01	17:11	3:26	2:21:23
Halfway	1:10:37			2:21:14
25	1:23:10	16:09	3:14	2:20:22
30	1:39:11	16:01	3:12	2:19:30
35	1:55:25	16:14	3:15	2:19:19
40	2:12:07	16:42	3:20	2:19:22
Finish	2:19:19

 

In-race commentary time line

Women start

The women are running 5:15 to 5:20 per mile early on, which is a reasonable start - projects just under 2:20.  But, they're just through 4km now, so a long way to go.  The elite group is maybe 10 to 12 large.  The commentator keeps saying that Keitany is running her first marathon - she's not.  She came 3rd in New York last year.  She's showing very aggressively at the front so far, but everyone is in touch.

5km in 16:16.  2:17 projected, so that's quick, but the start of London is slightly down (from 3km to 4km - the mile there was 5:05) so it's always reasonably quick.  Expect it to slow down between 5km and 10km.

10km in 32:54, so it has slowed a little - 16:38 for the last 5km, including a slow mile of 5:48.  Mikitenko dropped off just around 5km, but other than that, all the major contenders are there.  Keitany running off to the side, Shobukova paying close attention to the pace-maker (and there is only one, which is strange)

Last mile in 5:02, so that must presumably be a downhill mile following the slight uphill.  Either that or the pace is fast-slow, but that's less likely.

Men start

The men are about to start.  What an incredible field.  Makau vs Kebede is probably the big battle, Makau being the World # 1 last year, and Kebede being beaten only by Wanjiru in that epic Chicago race.  But there are maybe 6 men with a good chance of winning.  Martin Lel is the dangerous unknown - the most incredible racer in the marathon a few years ago, he's returning from injuries that have forced withdrawals from his last few races, so I don't expect, but hope for something from him.

At 15km, the women are on course for 2:20:11, so it is slowing.  It's gone 3:15/km to 3:20/km to 3:23/km. The pacemaker has been joined by Shobukhova, who is probably more responsible for the pace than the official pacemaker.  Very confident way to run.  Keitany and Kiplagat, the big Kenyan challengers are in the pack now.

Men at 5km in 14:34.  Very fast, projecting a 2:02, but don't get too excited - as we said for the women, the 4th kilometer is downhill so the first 5km are very quick.  But it's a good sign of aggressive running so far.  17 men in the lead group, excluding 5 pacemakers.

The front men's group has now split, and of the five pacemakers, there are now only two in the front group.  There was a plan for a second paced group to run for around 2:06 - 2:07 (compared to a 62 min through halfway for the first group), so they have now separated into the "hierarchies".  There are nine in the group at the front, excluding those two pacemakers.

Women at 20km, and the progressive decline in speed has continued - the last 5km were at 3:26/km, so it's gotten slower by around 3sec/km since the start.  The projection is now for 2:21:23, and given her finishing speed, this will suit Shobukhova nicely.  Keitany may also enjoy the slower pace, given her half marathon credentials.

Shobukhova drives very hard through the halfway mark, which is reached in 1:10:37.  That move didn't achieve too much, maybe she was just testing the Kenyans behind her.  Very aggressive, that's a long way out to be driving at the front.  She obviously feels good.  Given how quick her finish is, it's a bit surprising to see that early push.  The pacemaker is gone, so now it's a race.

Men at 10km, and it has slowed just a little, but that was expected.  The last 5km were in 14:49, and the overall projected time is now 2:03:59, which happens to be the World Record.  The 14:49 is a touch slower though, if they were to maintain that, they'll do just inside 2:05.  The next 10km will tell us...

Mary Keitany has come to the front of the women's race now, and she's the big danger.  Shobukhova's move has been the catalyst for an overall increase in the aggression of the race.  The lead group is now seven, Keitany at the front and Shobukhova following her.  Remember that Shobukhova ran the final 2.2km of Chicago faster than the men's winner did, so she has serious speed at the end of the marathon.  A race between her and the half-marathon record holder is a great prospect!

Keitany is actually about 4 m clear.  She's driving very hard.  Shobukhova is gradually pulling the group back towards Keitany.  It's all happening very early in the women's race.  The 20-25km split will be very interesting.  This pace is doing some serious damage to the group behind her, they're in a long line and gaps are appearing everywhere!  She's surged again and opened a lead on Shobukhova.

Keitany has about 30 m on the chasers now.  And Shobukhova is no longer doing the leading in the chase group.  This is a serious move, it's opened the race up completely!  This is the kind of racing not seenin women's marathon running.

At 25km, Keitany is six seconds clear.  Her last 5km was in 16:09, the fastest of the race and that's what has done the damage.  The group behind are split and this is the race's big move.  Kiplagat is chasing, followed by Kebede, Bekele and Shobukhova, who started the racing at halfway and now being severely tested!

The men are at 15km in 44:26, having covered the last 5km in 15:03.  That will disappoint the race organizers, having asked for a 62 at halfway.  The pace is considerably slower than that now, and so any thoughts of the world record are fading fast.

Around 28km, and Shobukhova has moved into second, but Keitany has a gap of maybe 30 seconds.  She's out of sight as they go through a twisty section and Keitany is looking superb, so fluid.  The only danger for Keitany now is the distance and whether she'll pay for this surge.  The pace hasn't slowed behind, and so Keitany is still holding a pace of around 3:15/km, which is incredible running.  Last year's winning time was 2:21:59 by Shobukhova, this should be substantially faster.

Keitany has reached 30 km in 1:39:11, with a last 5km of 16:01, so she's actually gotten even faster!  It's extra-ordinary front running.  And while it's not entirely unchartered territory, to move this far out in only your second major marathon is exceptional running.  The projected time has now dropped to 2:19:30, and the way Keitany is running, even 2:18 is not out of the question.  The gap to the chasing Shobukhova & co is 33 seconds, and so they're running 16:25 for the last 5km, which is good pace, but Keitany is soaring at the front!

The men at 20km, and the pace is still pretty slow.  15:03 for the last 5km, and so that's 30:06 from 10km to 20km.  And that's not what the agreed pace was.  The halfway split is 62:44, and the commentators are projecting 2:05:30.  That's a bit misleading, because the first 5km was so quick.

The truth is that given the last 10km, unless the pace picks up, they'll run around 2:06:20.  Interesting to see how the racing in the second half affects this.  Expect it to get quicker, but the sub 2:05 is looking out of reach for now.  It'll take serious racing to bring them under that barrier.

All the main protagonists are there.  Mo Trafeh has dropped off, 14 seconds down at halfway, but he was running above himself to be there, and now will try to settle one something around 2:07 pace.  The lead group is 10 men, Makau, Kebede, Lel, Kwambai and Gharib are all still in that group.

Keitany has hit 35km, and the pace is still strong, though understandably has slowed somewhat.  The last 5km were covered in 16:14.  The lead has grown - Shobukhova and Kiplagat are now 1:09 behind, so she's opened up another 36 seconds in the last 5km!  She's unlikely to be coming back and marathon running has a new star!

The men have increased the pace, and at 25km, they're speeding up again.  The last 5km were in 14:47, which is 2:57/km pace and brings the projected time down.  The group is still 10 deep, one pacemaker there.  Kebede and Makau paying closer attention now.

Keitany through 40km in 2:12:07, so she has slowed - the last 5km has been covered at 3:20/km.  The gap to Shobukhova, who is now clear in second, is 1:07, so that hasn't changed since the 35km mark (it was 1:09 then.  She'll break 2:20 as well, comfortably - right now it's projected at 2:19:22, so expect 2:19:30-something.

The men are at 30km  - 1:29:20, and it's just outside 15 for the last 5km.  So again, slower than we all thought it would be.  Martin Lel is still there, and looking so smooth.  If his training was not quite geared towards London, it'll start to tell soon.  But if he's there at 40km, then his finishing ability (assuming three years haven't eroded it) will be hard to match.

The race has now begun though, the pacemaker is gone and the big guns are to the front.  The elite group is down to six men - Mutai, Kebede, Lel, Makau, dos Santos.

Keitany wins!  2:19:19!  Women's marathon running has a new superstar!  Whenever a super quick half-marathon athlete steps up, you expect great things, and Keitany is a fearsome half marathon athlete, so she is delivering on her promise now!  She'll be a big favourite in London next year, and the rest of the world will have taken notice!

Shobukhova coming in second with a super quick finish, she'll run a PB in 2:20:15 and a great run, but put into the shade by an amazing performance from Mary Keitany.

And now we get to see the rest of the women finish while the men's race is being decided.  This happens every year.  Let's see who finishes 18th in the women's race, forget the men's winners...

The men's race is on!  Mutai is pushing the pace and it's Martin Lel following!  Lel is there, and challenging.  Kebede is in third, Makau in fourth, but gapped from the front three just slightly, and we're coming up to 35 km.

No wait, we're going to see the women again.  We'll wait for Jo Pavey, I'm sure.  I appreciate the local interest, of course, but this is a lot like having a car dealership and putting the Ferraris and Porsches in the back, with the Toyotas and Volkswagens out front.  This is a global event, they need to cater to it - you can't grow the sport by "hiding" the superstars.  Very ordinary.

Ok, she's done now for the love of marathon running, can we PLEASE see the men's race!  No?  Ok, let's stick with the 20th best women for a little longer, and NOT watch the men...  London, you have truly outdone yourself this year.

Oh, there is a men's race after all.  They're at 35km, and Emmanuel Mutai is clear.  He covered the last 5km in 14:26, an exceptional surge in pace.  That was enough to drop Lel, who was "last man standing", and Mutai is 20 seconds clear!  That gap was created very quickly - at 32 km, they were together, and so Lel may have hit something of a wall.

This is the race's decisive move, with mile splits of 4:30 and 4:31 (2:47 per kilometer for 3km).  Lel is second, 20 seconds down at 35km, and Makau a second back of him.  The pre-race favourite, Tsegay Kebede, who spoke a good game of a world record before the race, has been pushed right back.  At 35km, he's 36 seconds down in 5th place.  In fourth is Dos Santos of Brazil, but we'll get a much clearer picture at 40km in a few minutes' time.

From the camera shots, no one will catch Mutai, he has clear road behind and ahead, and he'll win this race with about 12 minutes to go.  Meanwhile, we'll switch back to the women, and watch the women finishing in 2:38 or slower.  And we'll stay with these pictures, to see a 2:41 marathon runner, while the elite men running 2:05 are ignored.  Go London coverage!  It's not difficult to split the feeds, the international feed can easily be separated from what is shown locally.

Mutai at 40km, and the time is 1:58:05, and Mutai is flying!  He's going to break the course record, and run one of the fastest marathons in history!  And that's off the back of a relatively conservative period from 5km to 30km - 62:44 at halfway, and the section 5km to 30km was run at 2:06:11 pace.  So Mutai is going to go under 62 minutes for the second half!

Exceptional running!  Martin Lel has hung in there and is second, 53 seconds down, with Makau just behind him in third.  Makau will probably catch him.  That means that Lel and Makau have maintained the pace and are on course for around 2:05:30, which is exactly what the halfway split predicted. So Mutai has been the man to emerge from the pack today with an outrageously fast second half.  His last 5km were covered in 14:19, following on from a 14:26, and that's 2:52/km.

Mutai has won in 2:04:40, making him the fourth fastest man in history, behind Gebrselassie, Kibet and Kwambai (Geb has run faster twice, incidentally).  It's a course record, and it's been achieved with a second half of 61:56, which is super quick.  The final 12km, incidentally, from 30km, were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54 pace, or a 2:02 marathon!

Martin Lel has won a sprint for second in 2:05:45, and that is an exceptional comeback from the multiple London champion.  Makau is third only a second behind, and dos Santos has finished fourth.  Tsegay Kebede, meanwhile, has finished fifth in 2:07:47.  That's pretty disappointing for him, given the pre-race talk and his last few performances.  It's made more so by the fact that the halfway split of 62:44 was not that quick, so his second half was 65:03, which he'll be disappointed with.  A bad day at the office.

The pacing - only one faster second half


An interesting note on pacing - the halfway split was reached in 62:44, which predicts at 2:05:28.  And so the only elite athlete in the race to negative split was Mutai.  That's unusual, but what's more amazing is the size of his negative split, compared to the positive split in some of the other elites.


For example, Mutai's difference was 62:44 - 61:56, a 48 second differential faster!  Lel and Makau ran the second half in 62:51, so 7 seconds slower.  dos Santos was 63:50 or 66 seconds slower, and Kebede ran his second half 2:19 slower (65:03 vs 62:44).  

So a race of attrition for all but the top 3, and especially for Mutai, who aided by his final 12km in 2:54/km was absolutely exceptional.  The large spread across the top 8 was the result of Mutai's amazing surge, combined with a big drop-off in pace by almost everyone else.  One would not have thought that the men finishing in 5th or lower would run 65 minutes for the second half...


Ross

Chicago Marathon 2010 preview: Close finishes

A quick look back at some recent and epic marathon racing

This week begins the countdown to the 33rd Chicago Marathon, which is now just over five days away.  Even with Ryan Hall's late withdraw from the field, it promises to be a competitive bunch with several athletes well capable of going under 2:06 with a few capable of sub-2:05.  But the real story is that the current champs from Chicago (Wanjiru), Boston (Robert Cheruiyot), and London (Kebede) are all lining up to do battle next Sunday.  It is a young field, as all of those athletes are 23 or younger, and we can add to them 2:05 man (2010 Rotterdam) Vincent Kipruto.  But wait!  Don't forget about Deriba Merga, too, the hard-running 2009 Boston champ who recently ran a 1:02:31 half at altitude----2456 m (8355 feet) in Bogota, Colombia.

But before analyzing the fields too much, we just wanted to have a quick and fun look at some recent and close marathon finishes, in the hopes that this year in Chicago we see some more of this.  (NB:  if you are reading this in an email message because you are a subscriber, click here to go to the site to watch the videos.)

Also, some time late Sunday night, The Science of Sport saw its two millionth visitor!  Thanks to all of our readers for helping us hit this milestone even faster than it took us to get to one million visits, we are truly grateful for your support!

Berlin Marathon 2003:  Tergat holds off pacer to be first under 2:05

First up is Paul Tergat's WR in Berlin in 2003, where he barely held off a surging Sammy Korir to set the record and be the first under 2:05.  Interestingly, Korir was then the second fastest of all time for a couple of years, but never before nor since that race has he even come close to that time again.  It begs the question why, and speaks to the "non-physiological" barriers to achieving peak performance.

 

New York City Marathon 2005:  Ramaala vs. Tergat

Next up is NYC 2005, where defending champ Hendrik Ramaala fought hard and nearly pulled off a repeat win from Paul Tergat.  It was the closest NYC finish on record.  It gets good right around the 1:45 mark of the clip, and there is a fantastic overhead shot of both runners going for the finish, both fighting for the win, and one does not need to know anything about running to see how hard these two are fighting for it.  Simply amazing!

  Nov 6, 2005 - Photo Finish at the New York City Marathon

- Watch more Videos at Vodpod.

Chicago 2007:  Ivuti pips Gharib at the line

Everyone recalls Chicago 2007, but perhaps not because of the amazing finish between relatively unknown Patrik Ivuti and veteran Jaouad Gharib.  Ivuti was fourth in the 10000 m in Sydney, but who remembers that?  Beyond that, he was a distant 5th in Chicago 2005 and no one owuld have bet on him to beat a seasoned racer like Gharib.  Again, amazing aerial shot of the two turning on to Columbus Drive, the finishing straight, with Gharib at least five meters in front of Ivuti.  Watch at around 40 s, as Gharib looks over his shoulder and seemingly cannot believe he has not dropped Ivuti!

Chicago 2007:  The women's race

Incredibly, after watching Ivuti barely beat Gharib, after waiting for the replay from a marathon race to confirm the winner, anyone watching surely could not believe what happened in the women's race.  Debutante Adriana Pirtea seemed to have the race wrapped up with what everyone thought was an insurmountable lead over Berhane Adere.  The highlight:  starting at around 2:20, when Pirtea begins waving to the crowd, all the while as Adere is storming down Columbus behind her!

Rotterdam 2009:  Kibet vs. Kwambai in 2:04:27

Finally, just last year in Rotterdam, another amazing race down the stretch as James Kwambai and Duncan Kibet fought it out to become the third and fourth fastest men over 42.2 km.  You can read a more detailed race report here, but it was a actually a three-man race until just before 40 km, when Abel Kirui was finally gapped by 20 s.  We see the result of Kwambai's attack around the one-minute mark, and at that point it looks like a winning move---few would have bet against him at that point, but we all know what happened next:

This was the best video we could procure to embed here, because Universal Sports has blocked embedding of their footage of the race.

The novelty of a close finish---or not?

Back in 2008, as part of our London Preview, we looked at over 100 races of the past 10 or so years to investigate the winning margin.  Surprisingly, a full 25% of those races were decided by 10 s or less.  That means at least two runners were together until quite late in the race.  Below is a reproduction of that analysis, showing the margin of victory sorted from highest to smallest.  Missing is the 2009 Rotterdam finish between Kibet and Kwambai.

So bring on "10-10-10," as the race is being promoted around the city here, because with Kebede now starting there is at least one person who on paper can perhaps match Wanjiru down the stretch, and with the late addition or Merga we can be assured of some aggressive racing if he follows his standard operating procedure.  

The long range forecast is looking fantastic with cool evening temps (50s F/13-14 C) , plenty of sunshine, and light winds.  If that holds, the chances of a real challenge for the record go up quite a bit, because two of the runners who have the potential are starting the race.  

Stay tuned this week for a look back at some of the key issues around the 2007 race, including  fluid balance and dehydration, and the effects of heat on performance!

Jonathan

London 2010 Live post

London 2010 - splits and comments

Kebede and Shobukhova win as other favourites struggle

Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia has gone one better than in 2009, and has won the 2010 London Marathon in 2:05:19.  The race was unlike London Marathons in recent memories, because it didn't come down to a big group of men with 5km to go.  Instead, the damage was done soon after halfway, when a 5km split of 14:26 split the elite group wide open.

This surge accounted for Sammy Wanjiru, Duncan Kibet and Zersenay Tadese, three of the big, big favourites in the race.  They were blown right out of the group.  Instead, it was Emmanuel Mutai, Abel Kirui, Jaouad Gharib and Tsegay Kebede who emerged at the front.  The next 5km, from 25km to 30km, was covered in 14:27, giving the elite men a split of 28:53 between 20km and 30km.

That is of course a fierce pace, but it was surprising that the elite field was so fragmented by this pace.  Certainly, Tadese, Wanjiru and Kibet have the capacity to run the pace, but today were simply outclassed.  It's not even as though they hung onto it for a short time, they were completely shot out the back of the group.

Kebede, on the other hand, thrived, and he covered the 21st mile in 4:33, which accounted for the brave efforts of Abel Kirui.  From that point on, Kebede was unchallenged, and his lead grew progressively.  The eventual margin of victory was 1:04, over Emmanuel Mutai, who caught a dying Kirui for his best London finish.  Gharib of Morocco finished strongly for third.  Kirui, meanwhile, paid for his efforts, finishing fifth.

As for those other favourites, at the time of writing, only Tadese finished, well down and looking well beaten.  Wanjiru and Kibet presumably stepped off the road somewhere between halfway and 30km, to fight another day.  For Wanjiru, it's a first disappointing performance in a major marathon.  For Kibet and Tadese, it's two-in-a-row, following last year's failures in Berlin and London, respectively.

I'm sure there will be much discussion of what happened in the aftermath - perhaps back troubles for Wanjiru, plus the travel difficulties, will come up.  For Tadese, I just wonder if he's got the training figured out.  How someone with a 58:23 half-marathon is be dropped just after halfway when the time is 63:10 is beyond me.

Women's race

On the women's side, it went more according to script, both in terms of the pace and the way it unfolded.  Early on, the pace was solid - on course for a low 2:22.  The pace started faster than this, and then dropped progressively up to the halfway point, where the pacemaker stepped aside.

Then it was Liliya Shobukova of Russia who took the lead, and continued to reel off 3:20s per kilometer, keeping the 2:22 within sight.  That was enough to progressively thin the field, with the resistance provided by Bekele and Mergia of Ethiopia, and Abitova of Russia.

Mergia threw in a big surge of her own at about 36km, and this accounted for Bekele and, for a short time, Abitova.  Shobukhova, however, looked untroubled and stayed with Mergia until the intensity dropped off. Then Abitova began to close the gap, and Shobukhova made the final, decisive move.  She moved away at 40km and went unchallenged to the line, finishing in 2:22:00.

It was actually a much closer race than the men's side, and Shobukhova gets my nod for the best performance of the day.  She was composed and in control the whole way.  After her searing finish in Chicago last year, you'd have forgiven her for following moves all day and waiting to the final 5km, but she didn't - she controlled the pace, did much of the work and in the end, was simply too good for the competition.

Overall perspectives

We'll give it much more thought and do our usual "race insights" post tomorrow, where we'll look more closely at the pacing and performances of the main runners.  For now, though, my impression is that the men's race didn't live up to the hype.  Yes, it was brutally fast between 20 km and 30km, but I really did expect it to be closer.

Kebede was a deserved victor, but when you look at the times, and the fact that for example, 10th place was 2:16:38, then you would be surprised to learn that this was the strongest field ever assembled.  Perhaps too much was expected, but I certainly thought it would be the deepest race ever, and if you'd said that fifth would be outside 2:08, I'd have dismissed that without a thought.

On the women's side, it was a better race, with more depth.  Most of the top women ran quite big PBs, and Shobukhova confirmed her status as the premier marathon runner at the moment.  Yes, the time was not spectacular at 2:22:04, but for competitive depth and quality, it lived up to the hype.

More to come - we'll have a closer look at the pacing and see how it unfolded, and add some insights on who thrived, who failed, and why.  So join us for that tomorrow!

Ross

Live coverage and splits below

For those who missed it, and want to follow it as it unfolded, below you can read the comments during the race, and also see the race splits.

Splits

Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:39	14:39	2:55.8	2:03:38
10	?
15	44:51	30:12	3:01.2	2:06:10
20	59:53	15:02	3:00.4	2:06:20
Halfway	1:03:10			2:06:20
25	1:14:19	14:26	2:53.2	2:05:26
30	1:28:56	14:27	2:53.4	2:04:51
35	?
40	1:58:41	29:55	2:59.5	2:05:12
Finish	2:05:19	Kebede
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:33	16:33	3:18.6	2:19:40
10	33:17	16:44	3:20.8	2:20:26
15	50:11	16:54	3:22.8	2:21:10
20	1:07:18	17:07	3:25.4	2:21:59
Halfway	1:10:56			2:21:52
25	1:24:04	16:46	3:21.2	2:21:53
30	1:41:08	17:04	3:24.8	2:22:15
35	1:58:25	17:17	3:27.4	2:22:46
40
Finish	2:22:00	Shobukhova

 


Race Comments

Women's start 

Seems I spoke to soon.  The commentators include Eammon Sullivan, who last year couldn't pronounce any elite names.  20 seconds in, and he's butchered Mikitenko's name.  Pity Martin Lel is not running, he may actually get that one right.

The early pace is steady, as the pacemaker has gone well clear of the field, who only now, just over 2 miles in are catching her.  They're on 2:22 pace, which is pretty much as expected.  About 14 women in the main bunch, but by halfway, expect that to be much thinner. 

Women 5km 
16:33 to 5km, so that's 2:19:40 pace, but aided by a fairly steep downhill section.  The roads are very wet, so while the sun is not out, the roads will likely factor at the end of this one.  Still a big group together.

Women 7km 
The group is now a little thinner, but only one pacemaker present, which is unusual.  It seems the commentators don't know that Shobukhova won Chicago last year - they've just referred to her as an unknown quantity, who is new to the marathon.  

Women 9km 
Plenty of footage of Mara Yamauchi so far, not surprisingly.  She, like many of the athletes, endured a length trip to get to the start line, thanks to the travel chaos last week.  It will be interesting to see how that affects performances.  Still 14 women in the lead group, one pacemaker in front.

Women 10km 
They've hit 10km in 33:17, so the pace has dropped only very slightly over the last 5km.  The group is pretty stretched out, so it should start thinning out soon.  

Women 13km

The pacemaker seems to be struggling, rolling side to side, the occasional grimace.  She doesn't strike me as capable of going much beyond halfway.  Shobukhova is looking very solid just off the lead, as are the Ethiopians.  

Speaking of struggling, Mikitenko is gone off the back of the lead group, that's her race pretty much over!  Big surprise - she probably wasn't fancied for the win, but few would have picked her to drop off a 13-women lead group inside the first hour!

Meanwhile, they're introducing the men.  Here comes the action!

Men's start

There are five pacemakers for the men, compared to only one for the women - this is as much a reflection of the quality of the fields and standards as anything else.  Last year, the men tore through 5km in 14:08 (and 10km in 28:30), so let's see if the same aggressive start happens here!

Women 15km

The women's pace has continued to drop off slightly - they're still on course for a 2:21:10, which is more or less what everyone had expected. The commentators are continuing to talk about Shobukhova as "inexperienced" and new to the event, even though she was third last year and won in Chicago.  They will certainly be surprised a little later, if she produces the win I certainly expect.

Men 4km

The pace is solid - about 4:48 for the first two miles, and the third one is fast downhill, so they're on course for a quick opening.  Not as fast as last year, though that's probably a good thing.

Men 5km

The split is in - 14:39, which is much slower than last year, and given the steep downhill 3rd mile, not that surprising.  The projected time is 2:03:38, but don't read too much into that.


The commentators can't pronounce Wanjiru.  Every time they say it, it comes out differently.  I can't understand how - he is only the favourite, and the defending champ, and the Olympic champion.  If there was only one name they should make sure of, it would be his.  Very poor.

Women 19km

The pacemaker has gone clear again, perhaps her last push before she drops out.  Or, maybe the elite field has lost momentum.

Women at halfway

The lead women are about to hit the halfway mark.  The time is about 1:11 (I didn't see it, because they cut away to the men).


Meanwhile, Mara Yamauchi has dropped off the lead group, which is a surprise. She was prominent at the front for the first 20km, and so her sudden "retreat" to the back is not a good sign for her.  I fully expect that later on, we'll spend time waiting for her finish in 2:26 while the men are at the 38 km mark.  Shobukhova is now at the front of the elite field.

Men 10km

The men's pace is quick, but not spectacular, which is a good thing. Last year was far too fast, and many marathons have been hindered by fast starts.  The group is spread out over the road, which is a good sign, because it means most of the men are holding back, not really being pulled along in a line.  The pace certainly won't drop off between now and halfway.  Struggling to get splits though.

Men 12km

All the big names are in the group - Wanjiru, Tadese, Kebede, Kibet, Mutai, Kirui, Gharib.   There are 12 in the group, but 4 are pacemakers, and all the main attractions are still present.

Women 25km

Not surprisingly, the pacemaker is gone, and Shobukhova is in the lead.  The pace actually picked up from 20km to 25km - the last 5km covered in 16:46.  The projected is now 2:21:53, and the group is now much smaller.  We haven't seen too much of the race in the last ten minutes, but there has to have been a small surge around halfway - it accounted for Mara Yamauchi and a few others.  There are now about 9 in the lead group, which is larger than I expected, I have to say.

Men 15km

I apologize for not having splits more often - the TV coverage is predictably uninformative.  If you know of live athlete tracking let me know.

Meanwhile, the men are through 15km.  It's anyone's guess what the time is.  It seems to be about 45 minutes, which is a little slower than I expected.  It's outside 2:06 pace, and as a result, the elite field is still bunched.

So the 15km split, unofficially, is 44:51.  That means the last 10km have been run outside 30 minutes, which is why the projected pace is now outside 2:06.  The pace has definitely picked up though, because the group is suddenly longer and sleeker, no longer spread out across the road.  The next split will be interesting - will be a little quicker, I suspect.

Women 29km

Shobukhova is still in the lead, setting a firm, but unspectacular pace.  There are eight other women in the group, including Bai Xue of China, and the Ethiopians.  Interesting that Shobukhova is doing as much work as she is - her finishing 10km in Chicago, and particularly the final 5km, was spectacular, and I'd have thought she might rely on that.  But perhaps she's looking for that 2:21 time as well as the win today.

Women 30km

The pace is solid - 17:04 for the last 5km, has them through 30km in 1:41:08.  The projected pace is now 2:22:15.  Solid, but unspectacular.  There are definitely signs that the pace will ramp up though, as the group has spread out and other athletes are pushing to the front for the first time since the pacemaker stepped off.

Men 20km

The men have run 4:50 miles for the last 20 minutes.  They've hit 20km in 59:53, which is still pretty sedate, I have to say.  The final 10km are going to have to be spectacular at this relatively slow pace.  There are 15 men in the lead bunch, none of the big favourites are absent.


The projected time is now mid-2:06 - 2:06:20.

Men halfway

The halfway point in 63:10.  Going through the water table, it did pick up a little.  I think the water-tables can be quite deceptive that way.  The size of the group is probably the best indication that the pace is not that quick - sure, London has a great field, but to have 12 men together at this point tells you that the pace has been steady and relatively unspectacular.

Women 32km

The lead group has thinned out steadily.  It's down to four now, and Bai Xue is not one of them, which is also a surprise.  Currently, Shobukhova leads, with Bekele and Mergia following most closely.  Ethiopia have had a brilliant marathon season, with wins in Paris and Boston, and vying for London today.  Also in the group are Abitova of Russia.  

Men 23km

The pace is still in the 4:50 per mile range - that's about 3:00/km exactly.  At this rate, they're looking at hitting 30km in 1:30:00, and then the race will really be on over the final 12km.  It should make for a spectacular race.

Men 25km

Huge explosion in pace - 4:33 for the 15th mile, and Wanjiru has NOT responded to that.  It was Mutai who threw in that move, and Kirui and Kebede were first to respond, and the defending champ was put into difficulty!  Wanjiru is gone!  Tadese is gone!  Kibet is gone!


The group has been blown apart by that move.  Tadese is hanging on, though more in touch that Wanjiru.  Kibet is off the pace too, he and Wanjiru are running together about 10 seconds back of the leader.  Gharib is there, but right now, it's Mutai, Kebede and Kirui, and one remaining pacemaker.


The last 5km were covered in 14:26, which explain what has happened to this group.

Men 26km

The pace is still high.  Dos Santos of Brazil is right at the back of the top group, and almost in touch.

Women 36km

The women are still in a group of four.  The pace has slowed - the last 5km were run in 17:17, the slowest interval of the race.  The commentator says they're "motoring" - they aren't.  But it is a tough race now, attritional.  Two Russians and two Ethiopians.  Shobukhova remains the favourite, but two Ethiopians in Bekele and Mergia Aselefech are perhaps the big dangers.

As I type that, Mergia Aselefech goes into the lead, and that seems to have Bekele in difficulty at the back of the group.  Shobukhova looks really comfortable to me, Abitova is still there.  Bekele is gapped, five meters back.  Now ten meters.  We're down to three.

Women 37km
Mergia Aselefech has continued to drive the pace, and now it's two!  Shobukova has hung on, as they've gone through the last mile in 5:18.  The fastest of the race.  Abitova is off the group, and now it's one Ethiopian vs one Russian.

Men 28km

The pacemaker is gone, and it's down to four.  It's Kirui, Kebede, Mutai and Bouramdane of Morocco the surprise package. The last mile was 4:38, and so the pace is still very fast.  The 5km from 25km to 30km is going to be spectacular.

Women 38km

The pace at the front of the women's race has slowed - Mergia threw in a surge but Shobukova was able to respond, and looked very comfortable doing so, I have to say.  Abitova has also held the gap steady, which will provide a good barometer of what is going on out in front.

Men 29km

Kirui and Kebede are out in front.  Wanjiru and Tadese are both well down, and neither is going to come back.  Mutai has seen a gap open in front of him in third, and so it seems down to Kebede and Kirui with fully 12 km to go.

Men 30km

Kirui vs Kebede.  My money would have to be on Kebede, but Kirui is running a brilliant race.  The pace has picked up incredibly - the last five miles were run in 4:36, 4:33 (the one that did all the damage), 4:51, 4:33 and 4:36. 


The result is that the projected time is now a course record.  It's 1:28:46 through 30km.  The last 5km were covered in 14:27.  That means the last 10km, from 20km to 30km, have been run in 28:53.


The projected time now is 2:04:51, and I have to say, it's likely to remain this quick.  Will we see a sub-2:05 in London to go along with Boston's sub-2:06?

Women 40km

The decisive move in the women's race has just been made - Shobukhova has gone clear.  Abitova managed to catch up to the leaders, which suggests that the pace dropped off.  As I mentioned, she was the barometer, and she is telling us that the pace dropped.  In response, Shobukhova has gone clear, and she is about to add London to Chicago, and cement her status as the top female marathon runner in the world.

Men 32km

Still Kirui and Kebede.  They're racing very hard, the pace is still high.  It's incredibly aggressive running.  I wonder if Wanjiru and Tadese and Kibet will even finish?  Another disappointing marathon for Tadese.

Women 41km

Shobukhova is well clear, on her way to a PB in the marathon.  She looks on for a 2:22 something.  She has been the class of the field today, always in control.  She was the first to take the lead when the pacemaker dropped out, and given her finishing speed, that would have been a concern to the other women - if she was confident enough to lead that early, then it was always going to be tough to beat her.

Women's finish

Liliya Shobukhova in 2:22:04 (unofficial).  The pre-race favourite has delivered in a new personal best.  Inga Abitova finishes second, a surprise name, and Mergia Aselefech in third.

And now, as expected, we'll get a good five minutes Mara Yamauchi coming in to finish in a time of 2:26 or even slower.  Meanwhile, the men's race continues, but let's watch Yamauchi finish outside the top 10.

Men 34km

Kebede is clear!  This is the decisive move in the men's race, and yes, folks, we missed it while waiting for 11th in the women's race.


In any event, Kebede is clear, with about 10 seconds on Kirui, who is fighting hard to keep up, but Kebede is looking strong in front.  The 21st mile covered in 4:33, that was the move that Kebede threw to gap Kirui, as we cut back to watch more women's finishers.  Is this 12th or 13th?  A spectacular finish for 12th, while Kebede and Kirui labour their way to 4:33 miles behind.  

Men 37km

Oh look, there is a men's race after all.  Kebede is clear, Kirui about 15 seconds back.  So the initial gap is now holding somewhat, but Kebede is looking well in control.  Back to the women's finish line, just in case we miss the athlete finish in 14th.  The men's winner is certainly not as important.

Men 37km

Kebede is on course for something around 2:05, which at halfway seemed unlikely. he has slowed somewhat, running 4:51 and 4:55 for the last two miles.  His PB, recall, is 2:05:18, set in Fukuoka.  South African woman, Tanith Maxwell has just finished in 2:34. 


18th now finishing.  I am thankful that the men's race is not closer.  At this stage, we're only missing the fastest men's performance ever.  Imagine there were five men together and the surges were being thrown.  Now it's 19th, really thrilling this.

Men 38km
The men are at 40km.  I'd guess that Kebede is still leading with Kirui in second.  But with even more excitement, I can tell you that Wilkinson has just finished, and then Docherty, in 2:38:10.  And now Harrison, and then I'm sure another five or six women in around 2:40.

If you're wondering who cares, then you're quite right.  So am I.

Men 39km

Back to the men.  The last mile in 4:46 and Kebede has the race in sight now.  He has perhaps 10 minutes to run, and having come second last year, he's going one better now.  The gap to Kirui is growing steadily, it's now about 20 seconds, and this is going to be the biggest victory margin in London in many years.  


Kebede is tired, he's hanging on, but I think less than everyone else.  It's been a bizarre race - "only" 63:10 to halfway, and then a huge explosion with successive 5km splits of 14:26 and 14:27.


I must confess that I'm surprised that it opened up like it did.  The surge was fierce, yes, but given the quality of the field, I expected more men to survive, even at that pace.  The second half will be significantly faster than the first, looking at about 62 minutes, perhaps a tiny bit faster, which is of course incredible running.

Men 40km

Meanwhile, back in second, Kirui is paying for the earlier surges, and it's Emmanuel Mutai who has moved into second.  The pace is slowing dramatically, as 40km was reached in 1:58:41.  That gives us a last 10km of 29:55, and those are times for Kebede.


The gap to second is just under a minute - 59 seconds, to be exact.  Which means, of course, that Kirui has covered the last 10km in 31 minutes.  Kirui may not even hang on for third, as he has only 20 seconds over Gharib, and he is finishing very slowly.


For Kebede meanwhile, the projected time is 2:05:12, which means that the course record now requires an increase in pace before the finish.  I don't think it will happen.

Men finish

Kebede wins, one second slower than his 2009 performance - 2:05:19.  It's the biggest victory margin in London for some time, we're so used to seeing sprint finishes and groups of three or four men head into the last 2 km together.


This, by comparison, was a solo effort, as Kebede managed to survive a fierce middle part of the race to emerge its champion.


Mutai has finished in second in 2:06:23, just over a minute back, and Gharib of Morocco has come third.  Bouramdane, also of Morocco has finished fourth, and Abel Kirui, who was the only athlete to follow Kebede's surge at about 35km, ended up fifth, having endured a terrible final 5km, his wheels really coming off after a brave attempt at challenging the small Ethiopian.


A real race of attrition - the first half was run in 63:10, the second in 62:08.

Ross 

Rotterdam 2:04:47 in a race

Rotterdam Marathon - a 2:04:47 for Patrick Makau

It's too early to produce any meaningful analysis of the Rotterdam race - Universalsports.com are showing it at 12pm ET, and I am hunting for splits and gaps as you read this, but just to update those who are interested, the race has been won by Patrick Makau of Kenya, in a time of 2:04:47 (unofficial).

I'll do my best to post our usual analysis later today if I can pull together enough information, but for now, it seems that the early pace was very fast - perhaps too fast, as we have seen reports that at 15km, the time was 43:56, and at 20km, 58:37.

Those times project to something in the range of 2:03:35, which would have seen the world record fall by a big margin.  The pace then slowed, however, because we have a split at 30km of 1:28:55, which means the 10km section had been covered in 30:18 (which is 2:07:51 pace).  It is interesting that they should slow down in this interval, because usually, the pace in a tactical race will slow only after 30km, when the pacemaker drops out (as we saw for Paris, only a few hours ago).  So to slow between 20km and 30km suggests that maybe an instruction came (race director, favoured athletes?) to back off a little. 

That is where the shot at the record fell away, though the racing in the last 10 km seems to have driven the pace right down again, and I have the final 12.2 km being covered at about 2:56/km. 

So ultimately, Patrick Makau triumphed with Geoffrey Mutai in second, also sub-2:05 (2:04:53) and Kipruto in third.  Four men went under 2:05:30, while the pre-race favourite, James Kwambai, was walking at one point.

We'll see in the footage later how all this unfolded.  For now, any more detail would be way too speculative to be valuable!

Join us later for (hopefully) more splits and thoughts from Rotterdam!

Ross

Paris Marathon splits and analysis

Paris Marathon splits and analysis

Tadese Tola has won the 2010 Paris Marathon in 2:06:40, in a good start to the Spring racing season.  It represents a massive 9:05 improvement for a man who before this race had a best time of 2:15:45.  Tola's move came at the end of what was a fascinating race, which saw a relatively slow start (around 2:07 pace for the first 15km), a super-fast middle segment, then a tactical battle with an elite group that had a dozen athletes all the way to 35km, before Tola managed to pull away in the attritional final 5 km.

The race was full of changes in pace.  First a surge at 15km brought them to half-way in 63 minutes, and the course record of 2:05:47 was on.  However, with about twenty athletes in the lead group, the third quarter was always going to tell, particularly when the pace-maker dropped out.  That happened at 30km and suddenly, the pace slowed.  The section between 30km and 35km was covered in 15:31, which saw any chances of records disappear altogether.  At that point, five or six men ran abreast, no one wanting to take the pace decisively.

The moves eventually began at about 35km.  It was the marathon debutant Wilson Kipsang who went first, and the group was cut by half.  Then, with about 5km to run, Alfred Kering of Kenya threw in the first real decisive move.  Only Tola could respond, and the race was down to two.  The section from 35 to 40km would be covered in 14:48, a substantial increase in pace from the previous 5km.

Tola proved stronger and he gradually began to eke out a lead over Kering, eventually winning by the relatively comfortable margin of over 30 seconds.  Kering was almost caught by Kipsang, but hung on for a 2 minute improvement in his own PB.

The 2009 Paris race was remarkable for its depth - six men broke 2:07, and eleven went under 2:09.  This year, eight sub-2:09 performances were recorded, but only one man went under 2:07, and so the overall quality was not as high.  It was, however, a great race and a good start to what should be a fantastic few weeks of marathon running.

The splits and projected times are below, as well as my thoughts throughout the race.

Summary split times

Below are the split times from the race.  They sum up the race at a glance.  Below the tables follows some thoughts put down in real time, as the race developed, for those hungry for more detail!

As it unfolded...random musings, in real time

5 km  -  15:07 (Projected time 2:07:34)

A relatively slow start.  The conditions seem very good for running, and as you'd expect, the lead group is enormous this early on.  The pace did pick up at 5km, suggesting that the requested pace is substantially faster than what they're currently on.  I expect that to pick up a good deal between 5 and 10.

So far there have been a lot of aerial shots of various landmarks of Paris, and little of the elite runners.  Not that Paris doesn't look great from the air - it is my favourite European city, but I would enjoy a little more actual marathon action!

10 km - 30:11 (last 5km 15:04, with projected time of 2:07:22)

Well, it hasn't really picked up a great deal.  The lead group is still huge - I'd guess that there are forty runners, tightly bunched.  Last year in Paris, three men broke 2:06:30, and the winner was a 2:05:47 (Vincent Kipruto, running in Rotterdam this year).  It seems unlikely that 2:06 will be broken this year, and even 2:07, unless things pick up over the middle of the race.  All the pre-race favourites are there, including Joshua Chelanga, James Rotich, and Benjamin Kiptoo of Kenya.  All have PBs under 2:08, which is of course highly credible, but in the current era of 2:05 competitive races, fall slightly short of the 'platinum standard' that we'll see later this season.  Rotterdam promises to deliver the first heavy artillery later today (join us later for splits on that race)

15 km - 45:08 (last 5km 14:57, with a projected time of 2:06:58)

The lead group is now considerably smaller and thinner, and the pace has picked up, now projecting a sub-2:07.  Just over twenty men are in the group, but it is strung out considerably more than the bunch from earlier, and within the next ten kilometers, will likely drop to a dozen, before the real racing begins at 25km.

There have now been two falls in the elite group, both around the water points.  The athletes have twice dived over to the water points and cut across runners behind, leading one to come down.  Both have returned to the race and remain in the lead group, but the impact of the fall is usually quite substantial - remember, they are traveling 20 km/hour - a bicycle accident at that speed is not insignificant.  The falls have happened because of the size of the group.

Halfway - 1:03:00 (last 6.1km 17:52 (14:39 per 5km pace), with a projected time of 2:06)

The pace has really picked up now - they didn't show a 20km split, but the halfway point was reached in 63 minutes.  That projects a 2:06:00 finish, which is now substantially faster than it had been.

That comes thanks to a very fast section - the interval between 15km and 21km was covered at a pace of 2:56 per kilometer (14:40 per 5km).  Not surprisingly, runners are beginning to peel off, though the group is still large, which bodes well for a fast time.

Can they maintain this pace?  With such a large group, it seems likely that at least a few could.  The telling part of the race comes now - the third-quarter, which is usually where the pace drops off.  It's also where the pace-maker is likely to step off, probably at 30km.  If this pace of 14:50/5km can be maintained up to 30km, then the course record is certainly within sight.  After a slow start, that seemed unlikely.  It promises to be intriguing.

25 km - 1:14:58 (last interval at 15:20 5km pace, with a projected time of 2:06:32)

The pace has slowed considerably - the last 3.1 km were covered at 3:04/km, which is the slowest segment of the race.  Perhaps not surprisingly, that drop stimulated a sudden surge at 25 km from one of the pacemakers and Benjamin Kiptoo (winner in Rome last year).  The field was split for a short time, but has largely regrouped.  They're running past the Notre Dame Cathedral, which is garnering significantly more air time than the race (it is an amazing building), but the race seems to have heated up at the front.

30 km - 1:29:50 (last 5km 14:52, with a projected time of 2:06:21)

The lead group is now down to a dozen or so.  The pacemaker stepped aside at the 30km banner, and allowed Benjamin Kiptoo, who was paying closest attention, to move into a temporary lead.  The group is thinning out, many athletes are hanging on at the back, including a couple of the race's sub 2:08 men.  The fast pace between 15km and halfway is beginning to tell, because the last ten kilometers have not as aggressive (2:07:13 pace).

The acid test comes now that the pace-maker has gone.  With still a dozen guys in contention, the odds are that no one wants to pull them along to the finish, and so I suspect we might see quite a slow interval up to 5km.  Perhaps then the pace will lift, but too many men may slow things down a little before a final assault for the finish.  You can see that this already happened because the shape of that lead group changed within about 100m of the pace-maker stepping aside.  Having been an elongated "missile", it now spans five men across.

The helicopter is working over-time, this time showing the Eiffel Tower and Trocadero, while the runners hit the 30km point.  At this stage, I'd guess the proportion of race coverage to city coverage has been about 0.8:1.

35 km - 1:45:21 (last 5km 15:31, with a projected time of 2:07:00)

There are still seven men in the lead group, which means this race over the final 5km is going to be very aggressive.  As expected, the pace has dropped considerably - the slowest 5km split of the race.  That was, as suggested above, down to men looking at one another and biding their time after the pace-makers had gone.  The last split might have been even slower but for the the last few minutes, where it has picked up to cause the splitting of the lead group from twelve to seven men.

At about 34km, Wilson Kipsang of Kenya went to the front, and returned the lead group to its "missile" formation, albeit for a short time.  Kipsang is the race's intriguing character - a marathon debutant, his half-marathon best of 58:52 places him 10 th on the all-time list.  Whenever a really fast half-marathon athlete steps up, we get excited.  Kipsang moving to the front is either a sign that he feels great and is confident, or its a sign of his inexperience, for which he'll pay later.

40 km - 2:00:09 (last 5km 14:48, with a projected time of 2:06:45)

With 5km to go, the first decisive move of the race was made, and five men were cut to two by an attack by Alfred Kering of Kenya.  He was followed closely by Tadese Tola of Ethiopia.  Kipsang hung on gamely in third, but the gap opened quickly and by 40km, he was well back.  The damage in this segment is reflected by the 5km time - 14:45, very fast at the back end of the race, particularly when you look at it alongside the 15:31 of the previous 5km.  As expected, a very aggressive end to the race!

These men are running well above themselves - Tola, for example, was a 2:15:45 man before today, and is running over 8 minutes faster right now.  Alfred Kering has a few top 10 finishes in the Marathon Majors, incuding a 5th in Berlin and a 6th in Rotterdam, but his best time is "only" 2:09, which means he too is in unchartered territory here.

Tola hit the front with 3.7 km to go.  It wasn't an explosion, but it was effective as he gradually opened up a stride, then two, then three, and with 2km to go, it was a ten second lead.  That is never decisive, but it seems unlikely that Kering with return.

Finish line - 2:06:40

Tola sprinted across the line, looking very strong indeed.  An improvement of over 9 minutes a remarkable sub-plot to the race, as Tola reclaims the Paris title for Ethiopia (Kenya and Ethiopia have practically alternated wins in Paris since about 2003).

Second went to Kering, who hung on, eventually finishing in 2:07:10, thirty seconds back.  In third, only 2 seconds behind, was Wilson Kipsang, followed by a host of athletes running big PBs, as one would expect in a race where that many men were still together with only 7 km to run.  In all, eight athletes ran 2:09 or faster, which is not quite as impressive as last year, where six men went sub 2:07 and eleven broke 2:09. 

The women's race - Bayisa sets course record

The women's race was highlighted by a new course record, as Ethiopia's Atsede Bayisa defended her 2009 title in a new PB and Paris record of 2:22:02.  The race itself was a non-entity - Bayisa was always in control, and the real highlight was provided by the strong performance of Christelle Daunay, who broke the national record with an exceptionally strong finish and time of 2:24:22.

So the times were fast, as we've come to expect of marathon running.  There were PBs all over the place, in both the men's and women's fields.  It suggests that Paris is a great feeder for the big marathons, and that athletes on the fringe can make their breakthroughs in the French capital.

Ross