Beijing 2008 and doping

Can Beijing 2008 possibly emerge untainted by doping? We doubt it...

Two days ago, we did a post on some interesting news concerning the Beijing Olympic Marathon, which included a story of how the third and final spot on the Chinese Olympic team for the women's marathon was claimed.

This third and final member of the team, who earns her spot on the team by virtue of winning the Xiamen Marathon this past weekend is Zhang Yingying. And in that race, the 18-year old Zhang, running her third marathon, broke the women's world junior record with an extra-ordinary time of 2:22:38. Her own Personal Best had stood at 2:27:20, which was set three months ago in what was her second marathon.

So we have a five-minute improvement on a PB, from an 18-year old who has little to no history of running great performances in an event that is typically dominated by athletes in their early 30's who have a pedigree of running on the track...

Would it be excessively cynical for me to immediately have visions of turtle blood and other doping practices? Yes, out of a nation of a billion people, it is possible that you'll get this type of talent emerging, but we're leaning towards the other option on this one.

Given the history of the Chinese for producing world class athletes powered by turtle blood, dried caterpillars, and other concoctions, scepticism might be well placed. It most definitely will not be the last time we speak of Chinese athletes and doping allegations in 2008.

Some interesting information from a reader

And then added to that, we received a very helpful email from a reader who is based in China (and runs his own blog - Run back by 7).

In his email, he referred us to the following excerpt from a newspaper:

Curiously, the Xiamen race winner Zhang and Bai Xue, the winner of October's Beijing marathon - who was the runner-up in Xiamen - were not included on the short list (of Potential Olympic Team members).

"Though they have shown blistering form recently, they don't have the trust of sports officials in Beijing because of their link with Wang Dexian," said a source.

Bai and Zhang train under Wang Deming, the younger brother of the disgraced Wang Dexian. That relationship has apparently caused concern among the officials wary of any possible doping fallout before and during the Olympics.

So it seems that despite winning the Xiamen Marathon and qualifying for the Olympic marathon team, Zhang's place is questioned over the possible doping controversies...

What is more interesting to me is the emergence of another coach - Wang Dexian. The famous Chinese coach of the early 1990's was Ma Junren - he of the turtle blood excuse when three of his athletes tested positive for EPO! But this is a new name and I think the story highlights the massive problems the Chinese officials have.

To begin with, we assume that the officials are not complicit in doping, although it would not be the first time that a state-run programme produced results through systematic doping. But even assuming this, there are clearly massive problems. The Chinese system is so shrouded in mystery (to the West, anyway) that to know just what is going on is near impossible.

A few months ago, we did a post or two on the massive steroid bust in the USA - Operation Raw Deal. In that sequence of stories, it emerged that much of the world's banned substance trade seems to originate in China, where raw materials for the manufacture of undetectable, banned substances are freely available at ridiculously low prices.

Undetectable drugs, designer products that have likely never even been seen before by IOC laboratories, are almost certain to be available by the Olympic Games. Experts have warned that by Beijing 2008, "100 undetectable drugs will be available". Now, this may well be hyperbole, but even five undetectable drugs will create havoc with the Olympic Games and it's a very ominous shadow on the horizon.

The Chinese women of the 1990's - is there more to come in 2008?

The Chinese women of the 1990's came, saw, conquered, and then disappeared, leaving only unbreakable records as evidence of their presence on the world stage. Most people are aware that the records are suspect, but when you look at the facts and numbers, it jumps out just how unbelievable the year of 1993 was for women's running. Just take a look at the world records for the women's middle and long distance events:

1500m

• Qu Yunxia is 2 seconds faster than any runner not from China.
  
• The four fastest times in history are all Chinese and all were set in 1993.
  
• No one has run within 5 seconds of these times since then, and you know that the Eastern Europeans who used to hold the records here were tainted by drugs to begin with!

3000m

• The Top 7 times in history belong to Chinese women.
• All seven times were set in 1993.The next fastest person is a full 15 seconds behind the world record holder.

10 000m

• Wang Junxia (also the holder of the 3000m WR) stands a full 30 seconds clear of the second fastest person in history
• The record was also set in 1993, the year of the Turtle blood and caterpillar treatment

Records that will never be broken then - unless, perhaps, the Chinese women can break them in 2008?

Ross

Running News

Baldini talks up his chances in the heat, and the emergence of yet another Chinese challenger

Well, we did promise that Beijing would be one of our key focus points in 2008, so we thought we'd kick off with a short news-post based mostly around this interesting article we came across on Stefano Baldini, the Athens Olympic Marathon champion.

Baldini talks up his chances in the heat

To summarize, the article quotes Baldini speaking in an interview about his chances of defending his title in Beijing. In the interview, he states that:

"I think it can be a factor in my favour, I adapt well to conditions of this sort."
"No one likes to run in hot, humid conditions. But I manage to race well in them."
"When the weather is hot and humid, personal bests go out of the window"

Three interesting points from Baldini, and we certainly agree that adaptation, heat and humidity are going to be the keys in Beijing. In particular, his final point about the personal bests going out the window is very relevant. I suspect that as we approach the Beijing Marathon, all the talk will be about Gebrselassie, Tergat, Lel (if they run, that is), because of their racing pedigree.

However, I really do feel that we're in for a surprise in Beijing. Remember, the winning time at the IAAF World Championships in Osaka was 2:15:59, and while we didn't see athletes of the calibre of Gebrselassie and the other world's elite, I don't believe that the sub 2:06 credentials of these athletes will count for too much come the 35 km mark of the Beijing race.

So to repeat, if I was a Kenyan athletics administrator, I would be picking my team from the number of Kenyan athletes who are already based in the Far East, where the humidity and heat are part of the package. If Wanjiru runs in Beijing, he's the one guy who's both fast and accustomed to the conditions, and would be my favourite. Failing this, a Korean or Japanese runner is the next in line. One of the biggest problems for the big-name favourites is that they tend to avoid these conditions, running instead in cool, favourable conditions. And while this is perfectly acceptable, it does mean that Beijing will present unfamiliar racing conditions. Even a period of training leading up to the race won't replicate what a Korean or Japan-based Kenyan experiences, hence my favour for those athletes.

Look for the small men to feature

The other thing to look for is the smallest athlete in the race. The physiology of heat is fascinating and will be covered many times on this blog in the year ahead, but to repeat an often-raised point - all things being equal (which they very rarely are!), the smaller athlete will win in hot conditions.

Therefore, there has been a pretty good correlation between finishing position and body size in the Olympic Marathons, with the smaller, lighter athletes generally occupying higher positions. So this is another factor to consider.

The X-factor - the Beijing Smog

And then finally, the unknown factor for everyone is the pollution. We have written about this a couple of times on The Science of Sport already:

One year countdown - will Beijing's air be ready?
Olympic athletes will need face masks to run in Beijing

The pollution is an unknown quantity. Unfortunately, amidst all this talk of Beijing cleaning up its air, there is little evidence that it is happening. Initial promises to shut down factories and relocate them to outlying areas (which Baldini mentions) are no longer being kept. It seems that financial gain has won out in the debate, with many Chinese companies no longer adhering to initial promises to reduce emissions leading up to August. The UN has warned that the situation is getting worse, not better, and there have been days with smog so bad that flights have been delayed and children and elderly people forced indoors.

Now, when you're an elite athlete, this presents a unique problem, one which you can neither prepare for nor adapt to - no acclimatization here, I'm afraid. One elite South African runner could barely jog in Beijing in a training camp in 2007 and so the pollution may be a greater problem than anyone anticipates. Time will tell...

The Chinese marathon team is completed - more cause for concern...

On the women's marathon side, the Chinese have just made the third and final addition to their squad, and it's another cause for concern for all the other athletes who fancy their chances in Beijing.

Zhang Yingying, running her third marathon at the age of 18, has qualified for the Chinese Olympic squad by winning a marathon in Xiamen, in a world junior record time of 2:22:38.

I don't know what the environmental conditions were like on the day, but you can be sure that Yingying is another one who will be familiar and ready for the Beijing conditions. But more than this, she is clearly an athlete on the rise - her time was a world junior record, and a Personal Best by almost five minutes (her previous best was 2:27:20 last October).

Now, I'll steer clear of references to turtle-blood and other herbal supplements (for now, you can be sure it will come up in the future - the Chinese "machine" is most definitely not running on rice alone!), but let's just say that a 5 minute improvement in 4 months suggests there is more to come. She joins Zhou Chunxiu on the Chinese team (who I think is the favourite for the women's race), and they will certainly pose problems for Radcliffe, Noguchi and Ndereba.

Ciao!
Ross

2008 Preview Part II

Preview of the Olympic track events: Some classic clashes in 2008

Yesterday, we ran through some of the highlights of the upcoming sporting year, including the Olympic Marathons in Beijing, cycling's Tour de France, and some of the other big city marathons in 2008. Today, we continue with some predictions for the Olympic Games track events, and one or two random sporting events that grab my fancy.

The Olympic Track events

There are so many fascinating races and match-ups on the cards for Beijing that it's difficult to know where to begin. I think that closer to the time, we'll have to devote entire posts to each event, but for today, we'll just throw out some of those match-ups, pick our winner (according to our unique Crystal ball) and touch on some of the interesting stories behind the "result". So here we go, men first:

Men's 100m: Tyson Gay vs. Asafa Powell. A familiar story here - Powell will be majestic the whole way through. He'll ease off the throttle in his second round and semi-final race, but still run comfortably under 10 seconds despite coasting the final 20m. But come the final, Tyson Gay will step into the spotlight and Powell will be found wanting. It won't be as easy as Osaka, but Gay will win. His time? 9.82 seconds, to Powell's 9.85 seconds, and Gay bags Olympic Gold. Powell will have to wait until 2009 for his first major title.

Men's 800m: Kenyans vs. Borzakovskiy vs. Mulaudzi. The crystal ball nearly broke when we looked at this event - the strain was just too great. Osaka showed just how unpredictable the event can be, with the big favourites all being upstaged by Alfred Kirwa Yego. Don't expect the same in Beijing. Instead, it's Yuri Borzakovskiy who shows up after a couple of 'anonymous' years to put his finishing kick on the event and defend his title. It should be a worrying sign for the other athletes when a runner with such credentials spends a whole year out of the limelight, because his focus is clearly on Beijing, just as it was before Athens. So back a slow first lap, with a fast finishing Russian to relegate the Kenyans to the minor medals. Quite which Kenyans that will be is anyone's guess (for that matter, they may be running in non-Kenyan vests, with middle Eastern names)

Men's 10000m: Kenenisa Bekele vs. Zersenay Tadese. OK, there are some Kenyans and an Ethiopian (Sileshi Sihine) who will have their say in this race, but I'm really looking forward to this battle. Tadese of Eritrea came of age in 2007 - World Cross Country and Half Marathon champion, and he's shown his credentials on the big stage. No one would question Bekele's credentials, he's a great athlete. But 2007 was a somewhat patchy year for him. Yes, he won the World 10000m title in Osaka (in what I believe was a shaky defence), and he ran some good personal bests in the shorter distances, but he didn't look the part to me. In addition to Mombasa, there were some less than convincing performances, though with nothing at stake in some of them, difficult to say.

And perhaps 2007 was an indication that Bekele has devoted his year to sharpening up his speed (which would be a great move), but if it's more than that, and he comes out in 2008 with anything less than his best form, Tadese will challenge him in Beijing. Tadese, for his part, had a disappointing time in Osaka, but he'll go to Beijing having fixed those problems. And the race between the two will be awesome - Tadese will force the pace early, relying on his Cross country and 21 km strengths, while Bekele will sit and wait for the final 400m. So quite how it will unfold is the most mouth-watering prospect of all. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict Tadese to surprise and win, but that's more for the sake of controversy, and because I hope it happens! (I'm a big Tadese fan). Deep down, I'm sure Bekele will fix up whatever affected his patchy 2007 year. If he doesn't, money on Tadese will be rewarded!

Men's 5000m: Bekele vs Lagat. OK, so the the fact that we even have Bekele running the 5000m is probably a sign our crystal ball is not infallible. But I'm assuming that Bekele has a 2008 year along the same lines of his 2007, and the focus and strength is seen in the shorter events. Some PB's over 1500m and 3000m will encourage him to try the shorter event. That, and the fact that he won't win the 10000m (work with me on this one!), will see him line up in the 5000m final and beat Lagat in a last lap sprint, but the damage will have been done between 3600 and 4400m, where Bekele will run 58-something laps to break the speed of the 1500m runner. Or at least, that's how he'd need to do it!

Women's 200m: Allyson Felix vs everyone else. No contest here, Felix by a length. She won in Osaka by the biggest margin in Championship history and while the gap should narrow, it's difficult to see anyone bridging it. Felix is the most majestic, elegant runner around at the moment - a sprinter who looks almost fragile but is so smooth and rhythmical. She'll win comfortably. For Felix, though, it's the next event that holds the most interest...

Women's 400m: Sanya Richards vs Christine Ohuruogu vs Allyson Felix. OK, so I'm HOPING AGAINST HOPE that Felix will run the 400m event, ala Marie-Jose Perece in Atlanta and do the double. If she runs, I'm backing her, simply because her 200m speed, combined with her elegance and rhythm equals a fearsome 400m runner. Richards SHOULD be in Beijing - she missed Osaka after a blip in the US trials, but don't expect that to happen again. The world champ, Ohuruogu, has been cleared to run after a little doping scare, but the Olympic gold against the Americans will be too much to ask.

Women's 5000m: Meseret Defar vs. Turinesh Dibaba. Again, we're guessing blind here because there's no guarantee that Dibaba will run the 5000m event. She'll win the 10000m race, with another 60-second final lap, and hopefully (I'm holding my thumbs already), she'll recover enough to take on Defar in the 5000m race too. It's the race everyone wants to see, a race we missed out on in 2007, but remember back to the most epic clashes in track from 2006. So let's hope that both are in form, that both run this race, and that we see the race of the Olympics when they clash. Defar was magnificent in 2007, world records, world titles and untouchable performances. Dibaba can challenge her, but our prediction is that Defar edges it, and that's only because Dibaba has a 10 000m race in her legs (and a gold medal around her neck!)

Other sports: Some random musings from the crystal ball

We tend to neglect the other sports here, not because we're not interested in them, but more because the link between those sports and science is sometimes tenuous at best. However, here are some sports that offer interesting matchups and possibilities for analysis in 2008:

Tennis: Can Federer topple Nadal on the clay of Roland Garros?

The best months of the year for tennis fans are May through to July, when the world focuses first on the red clay of France, and then grass of Wimbledon for the two most interesting Grand Slam tournaments. In 2007, it was Nadal in France, Federer at Wimbledon, in the two most epic matches of the year. Federer is chasing the only Slam to avoid him, but must beat Nadal first. I don't think that 2008 will be the year for it, unless Nadal is injured...

From a sports science point of view, I think that tennis offers some fascinating opportunities for "Game analysis", because in 2007, we saw Federer come out and try to out-hit Nadal on the clay. It was a tactic that was doomed from the start, but Federer seemed determined to beat Nadal at his own game. I think the fascinating research will be to use game analysis to work out how best to construct a point to beat Nadal. It definitely wasn't what Federer tried last year, the clash between the elegant Federer and the brutal Nadal turning into a mismatch as Federer played the game Nadal must have wanted him to. For Federer, the challenge is to figure out what game Nadal DOESN'T want him to play and that's why this clash interests us.

Rubgy - a year of All Black dominance

Now that the World Cup is out the way, things will be back to normal and the All Blacks will dominate...Well, OK, that's a little tongue-in-cheek, but I do expect that the All Blacks will be the team to beat in 2008. Mostly, it's the rule changes that will feed their strengths, and South Africa's game of winning without the ball (subdue and penetrate) will be more difficult to implement successfully. That, and the fact that South Africa will have a new coach and have some internal politics to deal with, will mean the expected building from their RWC triumph will be nulllified. But mostly, from the science point of view, it will be fascinating to see how the rule changes affect the game - we'll hope for more running, more phases and less kicking, which will only be good for the game.

Conclusion

OK, so that is that from the crystal ball. As I said yesterday, I reserve the right to "forget" everything I've written in these last two posts! Just kidding, I do of course predict based on what I believe will happen, but hey, sport is unpredictable and there's no harm in going out on a limb and making wild predictions. The obvious disclaimer at this point is that most of these predictions are likely to be wrong! But it's an interesting means to introduce some of the more interesting stories of 2008 - stories we'll certainly be covering, analysing and dissecting. So do join us before, during and after these events, and we'll do our best to bring the HOW? and WHY? to the WHO? and WHAT?

Next up, incidentally, we'll start on our series-concept again. We're not entirely sure what series that will be. We've definitely lined up series on altitude, lactate and exercise in the cold, so they're on the horizon...

Ross

2008 Preview: Science of Sport in the year ahead

The Crystal ball post: 2008 in Sport

As mentioned yesterday, today we thought we'd do a post looking at the year of sport that lies ahead. Of course, being an Olympic year, the year is centred around 3 weeks in August in Beijing, and I'm sure that come the Olympic Games, we'll pretty much be doing post after post on the events in Beijing. Even leading into Beijing, there will be a great deal of fascinating science of sport content - the heat, the humidity, the pollution, the training programmes, the tactics...and that's all before the events even take place!

Sports science and the Olympics

The field of Sports Science actually owes quite a lot to the Olympic Games. It was the 1968 Mexico City Olympics that gave sports sciences the public profile that they currently "enjoy", because that was really the first time that elite athletes were put into potentially compromising physiological situations with the extreme altitude. Some of the athletes benefited (think Bob Beamon just about jumping right over the long jump pit!), while others did not (Ron Clarke famously collapsed and had to be hospitalized after the 10000m race).

The profile created by these events happened to co-incide with the massive boom in running in the USA, and the field of applied sports sciences, in the public eye, took root! Let's hope that Beijing 2008 does a similar thing - I am sure it will, and here at the Science of Sport, we'll do our best to dig behind the stories to find it!

But Beijing is one of many events and sports to gaze at through our crystal ball. Here are but a few others...

Marathon running in 2008

The big marathons happen in April, October and November, but all eyes will be on Dubai on January 18, where Haile Gebrselassie runs his first marathon since his world record in Berlin. As is usually the case for Geb, he is talking up his chances of another world record. One wonders whether this is the realistic talk, or whether it's marketing hype to raise the profile of the admittedly publicity-hungry Dubai organizers, who have already thrown a truck load of money at the event. If Geb does succeed, he stands to pocket $1.25 million, which includes a $1 million dollar world record bonus.

My prediction for this race is that he'll run a mid 2:05, blame the weather for the failure to run 2:03 (which may or may not be a valid reason), and then return to the more serious business of preparing for Beijing, where he will aim to cap off his career. It's not that Geb doesn't have this 2:04 in him, but in this year, this Dubai marathon is the odd race out - the middle marathon between achieving a life-long goal in Berlin and achieving an even bigger one in Beijing. So don't expect a world record in Dubai (of course, these may be famous last words...!)

What of the other marathons then?

Well, my favourite runner at the moment is Martin Lel, and he's the man to win in London in April this year, defending the title he won last year, and making it three out of the three in the big races. He takes on a star-studded field in London (minus only Geb), but with 63-second final 400m speed, no one will beat him. As for the time, with so many great runners, don't expect anything faster than 2:06 (still unbelievable). I'd guess 2:07-something, with a serious final 2km.

Unfortunately for Boston, the best of the best are all signed up to race in London, so it's a little difficult to pick the winner there. We'll sit on the fence for now and pick a Kenyan, as runners from that country have won 17 of the last 20 editions of that race!

In the Northern Hemisphere autumn, some big races will suffer as a result of the focus of the world on the Olympic Games. But of the few big names left, let's go with Martin Lel to defend his title in New York, and win the World Marathon Series title. For the women, Gete Wami will have her work cut out to defend her title, with a lot depending on whether she races London. And when it comes to women's marathons, it's all eyes back on Paula Radcliffe, who has her sights set on Beijing. Whether this means she'll avoid any other marathons I don't know. If she runs London, she'll win it, and maybe New York at the end of the year, so I'd predict we'll see Lel and Radcliffe atop the podium twice each this year.

The Olympic Marathon

But again, it's all eyes on Beijing. And the Beijing marathons are the hardest to call. It's too early to know who is even going to run, we only know Geb and Baldini for sure. I'm sure Geb will be the massive favourite before the race, but my personal call here is that if you want to bet on anyone, go with a Kenyan who is now based in Japan, or with a South Korean runner who runs a regular 2:07 to 2:08 time. I don't think that Beijing will be the day for the 2:05 men. It's too hot, too humid and too attritional for the fast men, and so they will have to think long and hard about how they prepare.

You may say that a 2:05 guys are the favourites, regardless of the conditions (after all, they are clearly the best/fastest in the field), but the reality is that the situation is likely to be so harsh and attritional that acclimation, local familiarity and preparation will beat speed and pedigree in Beijing. And I feel that habitual acclimation is the key - guys can spend the month before Beijing in Macau or Osaka all they want, but those who live there year round have the upper hand. So if I were a Kenyan selector, the first name down on my team would be Sammy Wanjiru, who is based in Japan (assuming he wants to run), and second down would be Luke Kibet, who won the World title in Osaka, showing he can handle the conditions. They are my favourites.

On the women's side, I'm afraid it doesn't look good for Paula Radcliffe. As much I would love for her to win the Olympic title, I think that heat and humidity, combined with her size (bigger people are severely disadvantaged in hot conditions) and lack of habitual acclimation means that the smart money must be on either Chunxiu Zhou (London champ in 2007), Mizuki Noguchi (defending Olympic Champ), or Catherine Ndereba. Ndereba showed that she can handle the conditions by winning in Osaka, and has shown the ability to get the preparation right for big races - two golds and a silver in the last three big Championship marathons. So Radcliffe will really have her work cut out. I'll go with the Chinese, with Ndereba picking up a minor medal, although I'd love to see Radcliffe win and will be rooting for her.

As we get closer to the time, though, we'll take a closer look at the heat, the humidity and just who's likely to suffer more, survive better, and why...

Cycling - can the Tour stay drug-free, just this once?

As far as cycling goes, we'll stick to the showpiece event, the Tour de France, and when it comes to the Tour, the only thing we can predict with certainty is that drugs will move the riders out of the headlines, yet again. 2007 was a tumultuous year for cycling, with the media and sponsors eventually exerting their muscle by pulling their money out of the sport. Media in many European countries pulled coverage of the Tour off the airwaves and out of the papers, and sponsors dropped their teams by the dozen! Even Discovery, which boasts the winner of 8 of the last 9 tours, failed to find a sponsor, having NEVER even returned a positive test! The sentiment among sponsors may ultimately rescue the sport, by forcing the hand of the organizers, who, frankly, are complicit in the problem.

2007 was actually one of the more exciting Tour de France races. It has been a long time since we saw the jostling, attacking, defending and racing we saw in this year's race, but unfortunately, it was dominated by the positive test of Vinokourov, and the sacking of Michael Rasmussen by his Rabobank team. It took the gloss of the race, but in truth, the gloss is merely varnish applied to a spoiled, warped, rotting surface anyway. So many big names tested positive, retired under doping clouds, or been suspended in 2007 that it's difficult to watch the sport without enormous scepticism. Let's hope 2008 is not the same, but honestly, I doubt it.

So the certain prediction is that the sport will continue to struggle as it attempts to clean up. The biggest problem facing the sport, incidentally, is denial. I saw an interview with Pat McQuaide, head of the UCI, and he denied that the sport had a doping problem. Well, the sponsors seem to think otherwise. So while the UCI bury their head in the sand (as they've done for years), let's hope the sponsors save the sport, in an indirect way.

Perhaps the biggest non-race related event will be to follow the ongoing Floyd Landis story - having failed in arbitration in the USA, Landis was last heard talking about the CAS in Switzerland, and time will tell. And then the million dollar question - will Lance Armstrong stay out of the doping headlines for another year, or could the Armstrong-doper movement gain more momentum in 2008?

On the racing side, don't back Contador to defend his title in France this year. The smart money, according to the crystal ball, is on Leipheimer. Contador is good for some mountain stages, and some exciting racing, but I think the steadiness of Leipheimer gives him the upper hand. Now that's what you call an "out-there" prediction! I do reserve the right to "forget" everything I've written here, by the way!!! And come July, this becomes history!

NFL - the Patriots go the whole way, unbeaten

As a South African, I realise I'm in the distinct minority when it comes to following the sport of Gridiron, or American Football. It's not big here in South Africa, where we consider it a poor cousin to our sport, rugby (personally, I think the athletes who play in the NFL are exceptional and make rugby's best athletes look average). I must confess that I find the sport fascinating. I have recently made a point of watching the games on ESPN every week, and have been lucky enough to read books written by some of the great NFL coaches - Bill Walsh and the like. And I must say, South African sport can learn from NFL in a big way. In particular, our cricket side should pay close attention to the words of Bill Walsh, who said that the character of the team is the most important thing it can nurture for success (ahead of technical skills), and that this character is determined by the team's leadership - the captain and senior players.

In South Africa, we have an enormous problem with team character (in my opinion) and it stems from the senior players and on-field leadership, which has created the bullies of the cricket world, cricketers who curse when they don't win, abuse the opposition when they do, and who display a decided lack of integrity, respect, fibre and intelligent cricket.

Which brings me to my prediction (or rather I should say "fascination") with NFL's New England Patriots. I watched them overturn a 12-point deficit against the Giants last week to record win number 16 of the season. They broke numerous NFL records in the process, but what has struck me most is the attitude and approach they show towards their own "greatness". It appears to me, as an "ignorant" outsider, that the Patriots have a sense of pride, not arrogance (SA take note) in their achievements, but have remained humble and focused on the goal. Interviews I have seen with Tom Brady, Randy Moss and Bill Bilicek (key players and the coach, by the way, for those who don't follow the game) have impressed me so much for their humility, focus on the team, respect for team mates AND OPPOSITION and their apparent calm as they pursue their place in history. It's a fantastic case study in how to mold, shape and manage a team, and many teams would do well to pay attention, even if they don't appreciate the actual game.

So given this approach, I pick the Patriots to go all the way, and win the Super Bowl come February 3rd. But then again, I'm a South African, so if anyone feels the need to educate me on this one, I'm all ears! But it's more the approach to man-management shown by the head coaches that the sporting world should take note of.

There is more to follow later on, but right now, I'm off for a jog! I'll be back tomorrow to finish off with another look into the crystal ball - still to come, soccer, rugby, and some of the Olympic Track events! Check in then!

Ross

"Dear Olympic athletes: Please pick up your face mask on the way to the start line"

Or better still, how about "Sorry Olympic athletes, we are going to reschedule your event to another day, because the pollution in Beijing is so bad, it might be dangerous for you to compete"?

OK, we're making light of a potentially serious situation here, but there is growing concern over the potential problems posed by pollution in Beijing leading up to the Olympic Games next year.

Three months ago, we did a post describing some of the pollution problems the athletes may face in Beijing. In that post, we discussed which chemicals/pollutants posed the biggest problems, and what those problems might be for the elite runners. The athletes most at risk are, as one would expect, the endurance athletes who are put through prolonged exposure with high ventilatory rates. In fact, so concerned were the IOC chiefs that Jacques Rogge, head of the IOC, even suggested that certain competitions "might be postponed or delayed to another day."

In response to that threat (which has, admittedly, been known for some time), the Beijing Olympic Committee promised some drastic interventions. The allocated between $12 and $15 billion to the "clean Beijing's air" campaign, taking steps including shutting down of factories, and even banning cars with even and odd-numbered licence plates on alternate days! So has this attempt worked? Jump ahead three months.

Latest reports - it's not getting any better

In the latest developments, about two weeks ago, the day after an "Environmental forum" to reassure athletes that the air quality would be adequate, the pollution was so bad that flights had to be delayed due to poor visibility, children and elderly people were warned to stay indoors and the Weather Bureau issued a suggestion to "Wear a face mask if you go out"! (Story here). The pictures below show the situation in Beijing. In fact, visibility was down to 50m! Can you imagine the great TV coverage of the cycling, triathlon and marathon events?


But the Chinese say they have it under control

Still, Beijing are putting on their game-face, arguing that the pollution situation is under control. This despite the fact that recent reports from the United Nations suggest that the problem is getting worse, not better. Yet still, some of the bigger factories (major 'culprits' in the air quality situation) have decided to go back on an initial decision to slow down operations. The LOC have also apparently reversed a decision made earlier to close down factories for the duration of competition in next year's games. And the single biggest polluter, a company called Capital Steel, were initially due to relocate to another city before the Games, but will now continue operations throughout the year AND the Games.

These are not the responses of an LOC concerned about the growing pressure placed on them by the IOC to take action. In a speech two weeks ago, Rogge said that "Time may be running out. The conditions required for the athletes competing in endurance disciplines might not be met 100 per cent on a given day." This sentiment has been echoed by other IOC delegates, but for political reasons, there is a general reluctance to openly criticize the Beijing LOC. In fact, when Rogge addressed Chinese officials at the Environmental Forum in Beijing a few weeks ago, the concerns over the air quality were left out of the presented speech, but remained in the published version, circulated later.

Or perhaps the pressure from IOC is deemed less important than the pressure from the factories, companies and politicians, for whom relocation, reduced levels of operation and possible closure would have massive economic implications? I have little doubt that this pressure carries more weight than that of the IOC. And given the fact that there is no real evidence to know what constitutes "SAFE" when it comes to elite athletes competing at high intensity, the Beijing LOC have an escape clause, because all they need to do is meet some "acceptable limits" decided upon based on studies of general health. It's not difficult to see the difference between long term impact on health and the short term impact on performance and acute health problems, but this fact doesn't seem to have entered into the LOC's thinking.

What about the athletes? Pollution plus heat equals a major challenge

And forget the poor athletes who have to run in the conditions. Kenenisa Bekele and Meseret Defar, Ethiopia's long distance champions, recently described conditions as "disgusting", and I know that many athletes are dreading the time they have to spend in Beijing.

It is perhaps the single biggest concern for athletes leading up to Beijing. Not only will the high temperatures and humidity pose huge challenges, but the pollution is likely to be a real factor. One could argue that it's the same for everyone, I suppose, but it will be interesting to see how the different nations plan to overcome this problem.

On the Sports Science side of things, Australia and Great Britian have already announced that they will take steps to limit exposure of their athletes. Great Britian's swimmers will prepare in Osaka, Japan, arriving only a day or two before their events.

As usual, Australia have begun meticulous preparations, and will have an asthma specialist on their medical team, have investigated the possibility of air filters in the Olympic Village, and will also delay arrival in Beijing for as long as possible. They also reported last week that all athletes will be fitted with contact lenses because "it is difficult for the atheltes to wear sunglasses because of the haze, humidity and pollution". So they tested all atheltes and will supply special contact lenses with a UV filter! In South Africa, I don't think we even know whether atheltes need glasses or not! I must confess this contact lens theory seems a little bizarre to me, and I'm sure some of the sponsors (Oakley, for example) won't enjoy that, but that's what they feel will help.

I have little doubt that many other nations, including South Africa will do the same, regarding preparation and arrival in Beijing. I'm interested to see what the USA does in this regard.

The final problem - heat. Does it favour the Africans?

The final problem, is of course the heat. This is something we'll devote a great deal of time to in the future, as it's a big area of interest for us both. But as a teaser, I will say that the African runners are not as comfortable as everyone thinks when it comes to running in the heat. The reason is that the Africans, though well adapted to the heat during the summer, are going to be arriving in Beijing having come out of the cooler part of the African year. This year, the typical day temperatures in Kenya and Ethiopia in July and August were in the low 20's, which is not hot enough to adapt to the heat. One must remember that if you are going to be training at altitude, it is generally cooler than at sea-level. This combined with the season means that many African athletes will be going into Beijing unaccustomed to the heat.

So in fact, if I had to guess, I would say that the likely marathon winner will be a Korean, Japanese, or better still, a Kenyan who has been based in the Far East for a long period. If I were the Kenyan or Ethiopian coaches, I'd be relocating my athletes to Japan for about 2 months leading up the Games, and definitely picking atheltes who have demonstrated ability to tolerate high humidities in particular. Altitude training is going to be far less important than heat adaptation. We saw this in Osaka this year, and Beijing will be even worse...

Ross

Click here to read our initial account of air pollution, including some of the physiological problems it poses for the atheltes

Beijing 2008 - One year countdown begins - will the AIR be ready?

In a little under a year, the world of sport will descend on Beijing for the 2008 Olympic Games. The Chinese have promised the greatest Games ever, pouring billions of dollars preparing for the Beijing Olympic Games – they’ve built the stadiums, the roads, the venues (often at the expense of the local residents – see this story), well in advance of the Games. But it appears they’re losing the battle on one front – the air.

Last week saw a celebration to mark the start of the one-year countdown to the 2008 Olympic Games and IOC President Jacques Rogge put a dampener on things when he suggested that air pollution could lead to some events at the 2008 Beijing Games being postponed. That’s right, postponed. You can read about this here, here and here:

So having spent all their money on the ground, turns out it’s the air that might undo the plans for the best Olympics ever. Apparently billions have been spent so far (the total budget for cleaning the air is reported at $15 billion): factories have been shut down or relocated, and plans are in place to take one million cars off the road to reduce his problem. They’re even considering banning cars with even and odd-numbered licence plates on alternate days! According to Rogge (and other exercise experts), the endurance events are the ones under scrutiny, including cycling, running, swimming, rowing – anything where the ventilation rate is increased for prolonged periods.

The picture to the right shows a "blue-sky" day (they call it this when the sun is visible - any where else, you'd see blue skies!) on a late morning in Beijing. Not exactly inspiring...

So it will be interesting to see how performances are affected. At the recent IAAF World Junior Championships, held in Beijing in August 2006, there were reports from athletes that the air hurt their performances. But what is the evidence of impaired performance with pollution? Well, firstly, the Beijing concern is not a new one – Los Angeles, Seoul and Athens all had similar concerns, but through campaigns to reduce cars on the road, they were able to overcome any problems, the result being that we’ve never seen the world record holder gasping for air on the side of the track in the 10 000m event! The fear is that China’s massive economic growth will prevent this from happening. The Beijing Committee have however vowed that three pollutants (sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide) will be brought to within acceptable limits set by UN World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines. The density of particulate matter "will reach the level of major cities in developed countries" is their pledge.

There has been some research and scientific discussion of this issue, including reviews around the Athens Games. This review reported that of the main pollutants (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, particulate pollution (called PM10) and carbon monoxide), it was elevated ozone and carbon monoxide concentrations that would be most detrimental.

Symptoms of ozone exposure include cough, chest pain, difficulty in breathing, headache, eye irritation and a decrease in forced expiratory volume in one second. All of these effects are likely to impact upon performance, and several studies of cyclists suggest this to be the case. There appears to be quite a varied response between individuals though, and the other confounding factor is that your Olympic athlete is quite a different physiological ‘machine’ compared to the “normal” athletes who are tested in research trials. So it’s impossible to know with certainty what the effect on performance might be. One argument is that the level of training and physiology makes the Olympians less susceptible to problems, another suggests that they’d be more affected. No one really knows. Athletes with asthma will certainly be holding their breaths though (bad joke alert!)

The problem for competing athletes is that unlike heat and altitude, acclimitization is not really possible to pollution - this is similar to expecting that breathing in poisonous gases will eventually get better if you do it for long enough! The only solution is to limit exposure - you're far better off breathing less of the affected air. Speaking from personal experience, one of the first problems on arriving in a polluted city is that the airways dry up, and the pollutants cause major irritation, and potentially sinus problem. This can interfere with something seemingly trivial - sleep. Only trivial until you can't get any! Also, possible medication must be considered, and we haven't even begun exercise yet! So for athletes in polluted areas, the challenge begins before exercise starts, and then there may be other problems, not yet fully understood.

In response to this threat, Australia and Britain have already changed their approach leading up to the Games. Britian’s swimmers, for example, will only arrive three days (rather than the customary ten) before competition, doing their final preparations in Osaka, Japan.

Australia, for their part, sent their head coaches and some athletes to Beijing to ‘get a taste for the air’, and in response, have appointed an asthma specialist onto their 50-person medical team. They have also announced that most of their 500 athletes will be encouraged to arrive in Beijing a few days before competition, to limit exposure to the polluted air! There is also talk of living in areas with filtered air – obviously a massive expense, within reach of only the wealthier participating nations. Australian Olympic Chief John Coates expressed a lack of confidence that the problem would be rectified by the Games, saying “You won't be seeing too many of our athletes until four or five days before their competition”

Let’s hope this doesn’t detract from the Games and the atmosphere (the good kind!), and most of all, the performances! But we’ll keep you posted and informed of any research, figures and science as it emerges!

R & J