Sports news - athletics and tennis

Signals of intent for the athletics season and a Grand Slam without Federer down under

Just a quick filler news article today, to comment on some very interesting sports performances from the past weekend. First, we look at some results from the distance races at the Reebok Indoor Athletics meeting from Boston - Ethiopian women in fine form and Craig Mottram signalling his intent for 2008.

Then we look briefly at the Men's final of the first Grand Slam of 2008, the Australian Open. As from tomorrow, we'll resume our series on Exercise in the cold.

Craig Mottram - sign of things to come?

Last year, heading into Osaka, we (and others) picked Craig Mottram's battle with the East Africans in the 5000m final as one of the possible highlights of the Championships. How wrong we were! Mottram never featured, eventually finishing 13th out of 14 runners, in what was the slowest 5000m race in the history of the IAAF World Champs. So having begun the season with great promise, Mottram failed on the biggest occasion. In the aftermath, it emerged that Mottram had been struggling with a hamstring injury, which curtailed his training leading up to the race.

Well, 2008 has begun much the same was as 2007 did - Mottram looking mighty impressive. In Boston, he ran the fastest time ever on American soil for an indoor 3000m - 7:34.50. He won the race going away, with a final 400m of 59 seconds. The time is only 2 seconds slower than Mottram's best ever OUTDOOR 3000m performance, and given that indoors, the time is expected to be 3 or more seconds slower, Mottram is clearly in great shape.

So what will be interesting to see in the next few months is whether he is able to remain injury free and whether he can sustain the level of performance all the way through to August. In terms of the injury, Mottram has said that he's not travelling full-time with a physio, specifically to work on the risk of injury.

In terms of performance, things might be a little trickier. With six months to go until Beijing, Mottram will need to maintain his current form through the indoor season, and then on the tracks of Europe, which will be a tough task. He's clearly got great speed right now - to have speed sufficient for a PB at a shorter distance like 3000m indicates that at some stage in the next six months, he'll have to pull back and reassess before sharpening again for Beijing - a tricky task. It might require very frugal racing in Europe, perhaps even none until about July. Mottram enjoys racing though, and so to maintain good speed all the way to August will be very tough. But hopefully he's got the timing right and will be in his best shape to mix it with the Africans come Beijing.

The Ethiopian women - dominant distance running performances

Meseret Defar and Turinesh Dibaba are only 24 and 22 years old, respectively. But they are well on the way to being the best middle and long distance athletes in history. Dibaba has four world track and four World Cross Country titles, and Defar was the Women's World Athlete of the Year in 2007, is an Olympic and World Champion, and makes a habit of breaking world records by seconds.

And this past weekend, Defar added another to her collection. Admittedly, it was a soft record - the women's 2 mile record. The old time was held by Regina Jacobs, at 9:23. Defar cleaved 13 seconds off it with her winning time of 9:10.50 - that's how soft it was! But the performance was still remarkable. The halfway point was reached in 4:38.4, which means the second mile was covered in 4:32! This suggests there is more to come, for a negative split this large is not optimal in this length of event. Not that Defar will get the opportunity soon - the 2 mile is too rarely run. But that kind of sustained speed over the second half suggests that a 3000m time very close to 8:20 later on this year, and her 5000m PB of 14:16 (the World Record) may also be under threat this year.

Unfortunately for us, it does not look as though the race with Turinesh Dibaba will happen any time soon. In Boston, we had the bizarre scenario where Defar ran 2-Miles and Dibaba ran the 3000m - basically, the same race. So it does provide a nice comparison, but would have been far more exciting to see them race head to head. That was denied to us last year in Osaka, after Dibaba withdrew from the 5000m after winning the 10000m title. And it seems unlikely that they will race again in Beijing, since Dibaba will surely focus on the 10000m event, and with the heat, it's unlikely she'll have the appetite for two 5000m races after.

In any event, Dibaba was an impressive, not spectacular winner of the 3000m race. Her time was 8:33.37. Quite a nice comparison is possible by looking at the time taken to cover the second half of the race - Dibaba reached 1 mile in 4:36.1, which means the final 1400m was covered in 3:57.2 (give or take a few meters). Defar's final mile of 4:32 equates to a 1400m pace of 3:56.7. So they are seemingly as inseparable as ever.

Of course, this comparison is somewhat shaky, and that's why the best solution would be to have them race one another. Unfortunately for the sport, this kind of situation often develops, where two high-profile athletes avoid one another for all but one or two races per year, if that. We had Powell vs. Gay (on, off, on and off again), and numerous others in the past. One can't blame the athletes for not wanting to race unless the right "carrot" is offered, but it certainly would give the sport a boost to have a great head-to-head contest for meeting promoters to hype up and promote.

Tennis action - new faces and new prospects

Moving onto tennis, and exciting times for the men's game. For the last four years, Roger Federer has so dominated the tennis world that everyone else in the Grand Slams was vying for the title of runner-up. With the exception, that is, of the French Open, where they were all hoping for a semi-final, right before Rafael Nadal disposed of them on the red clay!

And a month ago, we looked into our crystal ball and predicted more great Federer-Nadal contests. Well, the year's first Grand Slam is over, and amazingly, neither of these two even made the final, let alone against one another!

Instead, it was Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who fought out an absorbing, if error ridden contest. In the end, Djokovic won in four sets, and claimed his first Grand Slam title. That after disposing of Federer in the semi-final. Tsonga, for his part, destroyed Nadal and if he can keep up his level of play, then 2008 promises at least four awesome performers, and that does not include a number of other prospects.

On the note of Djokovic, I was a big fan of his before this tournament, but what I have seen in the final week has only undermined that opinion. Djokovic comes across as petulant, supported by his family of four cheering him on with T-shirts emblazaned with letters spelling out N-O-L-E, which I'm told is his nickname.

But in yesterday's final, and in the match against Federer as well at times during previous games, Djokovic displays a petulant arrogance, even going so far as to shout and gesture aggressively towards fans. At one point during the final, someone in the crowd shouted "Stop" when Djokovic bounced the ball about 15 times before serving (Djokovic has this very annoying ball bounce routine, which has seen opponents complain to umpires, including in the final). In response, Djokovic angrily told the umpire to ask for quite (still acceptable). And then on winning the subsequent point, Djokovic first gestured aggressively to his family, and then turned specifically in the direction of the unruly fan and gave a very angry fist-pump, shouting something at him. It was a taunt more worthy of a drunken soccer fan, not a soon-to-be Grand Slam champion.

This kind of behaviour leaves a bad taste in the mouth, and it was not the first time. On many occasions, on winning a competitive point, Djokovic pumps his fist for the fans' benefit, posturing and preening, almost expecting their adulation. Unfortunately, in this final, he didn't get it - instead, Tsonga, who is all heart and spirit, was the fans' favourite. And whether this unsettled Djokovic, I don't know. But it seems quite clear that he has an attitude of disrespect towards the fan - yes, they are wrong to shout out as he's about to serve, but a great champion recognizes that the bad must be taken along with the good, and is gracious and humble enough to roll with these 'blows'. Instead, Djokovic shouts at fans to 'shut up', gestures angrily towards those who don't support him, and postures like a prize-fighter or WWE wrestler waiting for the respect and admiration.

Perhaps he can take a lesson from the man he beat in the semi-final, for Roger Federer has dominated with humility. Djokovic, on the other hand, is a new kid on the block, and has displayed little of the respect that Federer clearly has.

And sadly, it would be wishful thinking to suggest that Djokovic's support group and family will advise him in this regard, for it would seem that they encourage it. I have often seen people wearing T-shirts with slogans or letters that spell out the name of their favourite player. Usually it's the fans. But when the family of the player resort to that, I have to wonder. At one point early in the tournament, one of the four family members (it's him father, mother and two brothers) failed to stand up and cheer - the result was that their shirts spelled N-O- -E, rather than the intended N-O-L-E. In response, his mother turned and gestured rather angrily to her son to stand up, as he clearly wasn't doing his bit. Well, that seems somewhat unhealthy to me.

And in a world of tennis, where the parents of the players often court controversy and negative press more than the players (think of Pierce, Sharapov and Dokic), I'd prefer to see Djokovic just play tennis, rather than perpetuate this rather perverse affinity to a family that is only spurring on a WWE wrestling attitude on court. If any sports psychologists are reading this, please do weigh in and give your take on this behaviour that seems especially typical of tennis players...

Nevertheless, it's great for the game that Djokovic, and hopefully Tsonga, are so competitive, beating Federer and Nadal. It makes for a fascinating 2008, and a mockery of our crystal ball!

The week ahead

So that's it for the Weekend Sports wrap. This coming week, we'll get the series on Exercise in the cold moving. So do join us then!

Ross

Exercise in the Cold: Part I

Introduction to HYPOthermia and survival in the cold

As promised (a while back, admittedly), today we kick off a series on exercise in the cold. A challenging one to write, mostly because most of you reading this will (hopefully) never be exposed to conditions that are so extreme that your physiology is challenged to the point where it can't cope. Because most of you reading this are runners or cyclists, and it's only when you get into the water that a potentially lethal drop in body temperature is a real possibility. For the most part, exercise in the cold on land is limited by sensation and perceptions, which are of course controlled by wearing appropriate clothing. The biggest dangers of exercise in the cold on LAND? Frost-bite and other medical conditions, and not actually hypothermia.

But, there are still some fascinating studies and insights into exercise in the cold, and it is one of the most amazing areas of physiology to discuss. As I mentioned yesterday, Jonathan and I both worked with the polar swimmer Lewis Pugh when he prepared to swim 1km in the Arctic Ocean in 2005. Jonathan subsequently worked on his trip to the Antarctic as well. So we have a tendency towards COLD WATER physiology, which will make up the first couple of posts. Then we'll move onto the studies of running, cycling and muscle function during cycling and running.

So bear with us as we move through the series in a few parts:

1. How cold is cold? What are the limits to survival in the cold? Some stories of cold exposure in sport
   
2. The physiological responses to cold water immersion
3. The effects of cold temperatures on performance during swimming, cycling and running
4. Practical recommendations and insights

To begin with, how cold is "cold"?

In terms of body temperature, let's begin with a few basics - your body temperature as you read this is somewhere between 36 and 38 degrees - most textbooks will tell you 37 degrees celsius (or 98.6 Farenheit). As with exercise in the heat, the regulation of body temperature within a fairly narrow range is critical, not only for performance, but for health and survival. When we exercise, the body temperature very quickly rises to about 39 degrees celsius - one of the most remarkable questions in physiology, in my opinion, is why the body would allow this when it has the ability to lose the heat? It can reach 40 degrees celsius with few ill-effects, as found by numerous studies by the Danish group of Nielsen and Nybo.

The body regulates this temperature in a number of different ways. When we wrote about heat, we spoke of sweating, sending blood to the skin etc. In the cold, the opposite happens - you shift blood away from the skin, you shiver and release hormones that help keep the temperature up. The body is naturally insulated by skin, muscle and fat, and it's no co-incidence that on land and in water, the lean athlete, with low body fat percentage, is likely to get colder sooner!

What determines whether hypothermia happens ON LAND?

A drop in body temperature in recreational athletes is rarely seen ON LAND, even in quite cold conditions, provided they are not forced into prolonged exposure (discussed below). Rather, the main factor predicting body temperature is metabolic rate, and so provided you are exercising, your body temperature will rise, regardless of how cold it is...up to a point.

Remember that your body temperature will only fall if you lose heat faster than you produce it. When you are exercising in cold conditions, the fact is that you're usually:

• Dressed very warmly and therefore not likely to lose heat too rapidly - in this case, your body temperature is a function of heat production; or
• Dressed very inadequately, with skin exposed, or not waterproof. In this case, you'll FEEL so cold within minutes of starting, that you're likely to be unable to run altogether. You'll turn home and get warm in no time!

The point is, the SENSATION of the cold, mediated through your skin, precedes any fall in body temperature. So, by extension, provided you have free-will (and choose to exercise it - see the story of Andrew Wells below!), you'll be able to get warm without any complications. If, however, you're unlucky enough to get caught out, either because you're underdressed, far from shelter, or forced to spend a good deal of time in the cold (injury on the run/ride, getting lost etc. - think Polar explorers!), then your physiology really will be challenged, and that's what we'll tackle in subsequent posts!

Interestingly, in water, the situation is quite different. Because as we'll see tomorrow, you actually lose MORE HEAT when you exercise in the water than when you don't! So it's in water that hypothermia becomes a real threat - hypothermia, incidentally, is a fall in body temperature below about 35 degrees celsius - by this time, you'd be shivering uncontrollably.

But for today, we'll look at survival in the cold, and just what the risks are.

Some stories of cold exposure

In 1964, during the Four Inns Walking Competition in Derbyshire, England, tragedy struck when 3 hikers died as a result of cold conditions combined with poor preparation and planning for the cold. In this race (which is described by Pugh and later Noakes), competitors set out in temperatures between 0 and 4 degrees celsius, with wind speeds of about 45km/hour.

Seven hours into the event, the first reports of hikers in distress were received. In total, three hikers died as a result of the extreme cold and wind. In an analysis of these events, the following three characteristics were common to all three deaths:

• Inadequate clothing, which was not water-proof. As a result, when it began to rain, the water, combined with the cold and wind would have meant zero insulation for the hikers
• All the hikers had low body fat percentages. This was insufficient to make up for the loss of insulation by clothing once the clothes were wet
  
• The three hikers fatigued within a few hours of starting. As a result, they were walking very slowly, often collapsing, and hence unable to keep their rates of HEAT PRODUCTION high. The hikers who survived were those who finished faster.

These three points demonstrate the principles of exercise in the cold ON LAND - make sure you're dressed well, and make sure you are not forced to stop exercise or remain exposed for any longer than is necessary (unfortunately, this is not a choice we always have!)

In marathon running - evidence of hypothermia

The story above deals with hikers, exposed to snow, rain, wind and cold for days at a time. What about marathon runners? There is some evidence of hypothermia in marathon running. And perhaps surprisingly, it doesn't take temperatures below freezing to cause this. For example, in Scotland in 1982, in the Aberdeen Marathon, temperatures were about 12 degrees celsius, it was quite windy (25 to 30km/hour), but there was no rain, and yet 4 out of 59 runners finished with temperatures lower than 37 degrees! Similarly, in South Africa in 1985, during a 56km race, a temperature of 19 degrees combined with wind and rain was enough to see 8 runners taken to the medical tent with body temperatures below 37 degrees celsius!

Once again, in these cases, the likely cause is a combination of inadequate clothing, combined with low heat production as the athlete becomes fatigued. One of the body's responses to cooling is to shiver, and use more energy in an attempt to keep your temperature up. This is hardly conducive to performance and so the exercise intensity drops and body temperature tends to fall. Also, most of the time, athletes, particularly in South Africa, would expect reasonably warm conditions - they'd dress for these conditions, wearing little more than running shorts and a vest, completely inappropriate for wet, cool conditions, once the wind starts blowing. The same would apply to cycling, perhaps even more so, since the higher air speeds move heat away from the body more rapidly.

Having been in the medical tent at the last three Comrades Marathon events (90km race), I can also testify that towards the end of the day (around 4 or 5pm), when temperatures have fallen to the low teens (not cold, by any means), many runners report to the medical tent feeling very cold, shivering uncontrollably. And a big part of it is that they are fatigued, exhausted from the preceding 80km. They walk more, which causes heat production to fall. At the same time, they are underdressed, and then unable to do two jobs at one time - provide energy for exercise and for keeping the body warm. So the athlete often pays by cooling down and feeling very cold.

More recently - a high cost for winning a race

So we've seen that on land, the biggest danger is that you'll be caught underdressed and unable to keep exercising hard enough to keep your rate of heat production up. Provided you combat these two potential problems, your risk of hypothermia is actually relatively low. However, there is still a risk of frost-bite, demonstrated as recently as this past weekend by the case of one Andrew Wells. Wells won the Frozen Otter Ultra Trek, a 64-mile trek on what is called the Ice Age Trail in the Northern Kettle Moraine State Forest.

Wells won the race not because he finished the 64 miles first, but because he was the only competitor to actually reach the fifth check-point of the race. Only two competitors reached half-way! That's how severe conditions were - it was nearly 15 degrees below freezing at times!

But Wells clearly kept warm enough to avoid the potential for hypothermia. But unfortunately, he was not as lucky when it came to frostbite. This quote comes from this news story on the race:

Wells said he never noticed the frostbite set in. "My feet were obviously frozen, so I couldn't feel them," he said. "And it was too cold to take my shoes off to check my feet. On my hands, I had mittens on, and just to take them off for 30 seconds, my hands got really cold, painful. I thought my toes were OK."

It turns out that Wells competed in only running shoes, one pair of wool socks and a pair of waterproof socks! He'll now have two toes amputated! This story demonstrates that the danger of hypothermia may be lower, but frost-bite is a real possibility. Interestingly, none of the other competitors had this problem, because most, it is reported, bailed from the race when they'd hd enough. Wells, on the other hand, pushed past the initial pain until numbness set it. So it certainly is possible to voluntarily exercise into health problems, but for most, the sensation determines the safe limit.

But the record belongs to...

However, all these stories pale into insignificance when compared to the record for LOWEST SURVIVED body temperature. This report, published in Lancet in 2000, reports the remarkable story of a skiier, who holds the distinction of record cold-survivor:

“A twenty-nine year old woman fell while skiing (18h20), and was trapped and partially submerged under a waterfall. After 7 min, emergency rescue was summoned and, after 40 min struggling in the ice water, she stopped moving. The rescue team arrived (19h39), commenced cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and transported her to Hospital…Her Tc, 14.4oC at the start of rewarming, dropped to 13.7oC (afterdrop), and then returned to near normal after 3h. She recovered to normal function…”

Remarkable survival, but I'm sure you can appreciate, a one in a million story, and most are not nearly so fortunate (she did have numerous complications requring many years of rehabilitation afterwards).

So these stories and situations are obviously what we all wish to avoid! And in our next post in this series, we'll look at what happens to the body when it's suddenly exposed to a very cold environment - we'll look specifically at water immersion.

So join us then, and in the meantime, if you're in the Northern hemisphere, remember, it's all in the clothing!

Ross

Apologies for the absence

Travails of travel, and my own exposure to the cold

Apologies for such a long absence - it must be the longest time between posts since we began The Science of Sport last April. But there is good reason - I (Ross) have been trekking across the continents to visit first Europe and the USA. I'm actually in Chicago right now, visiting Jonathan, as I write this. I'll be in Boulder this weekend, for five days, and then Phoenix and Las Vegas in the week after that. This I head off for a week in Egypt and then back to reality and work in SA. I'm visiting with Dirk Friel of Training Peaks while in Boulder - they've been regulars of the site, so that should be great! If any regular readers happen to be in those towns, and you feel like getting together for a run, a game of tennis, a ride, whatever, send us a comment to this post and I'll get in touch - it'll be great to meet up!

So the "holiday" has been mostly to blame for the lack of posting - again, apologies for that. The power cord to my laptop also chose the most inopportune time to die, and the result is that I've not even been able to post while sitting waiting for flights at the airport (and the wait is long, especially flying on South African Airways, who managed to botch a flight by an incredible 14 hours, and then turn an 11 hour flight into a 14-hour one to boot).

Anyway, back online now, and hopefully not going to disappear for weeks at a time in the future, though please pardon the less frequent posting for the next month or so.

The series on the cold - it's coming, eventually...

A while back, we mentioned that we'd be doing our latest series on exercise in the cold. And we haven't forgotten! But first the Pistorius story and then this trip has interrupted our "flow" a little.

But now that I'm in Chicago (and soon Colorado), I guess one benefit is that I get to experience first-hand the implications of exercise in the cold! It was about 15 degrees below freezing when I landed (the doors on the luggage hold of the plane froze shut), and it's been about as cold ever since. Coming straight out of a South African summer, it's been a chilling experience! I went for a run the other day, and my cryogenically frozen lungs have been defrosting ever since!

So we'll get into the series on the cold. It's a difficult one to conceptualize and to apply practically to sports like running and cycling. Because at the risk of over-simplifying things enormously, when you run and cycle in the cold, the biggest problem is simply sensation-related. That is, overcoming the problem is mostly a function of choosing the appropriate clothing! That's of course an oversimplification, and we'll go into a little more detail than that, but the truth is that it's only when you get INTO THE WATER that cold physiology gets really interesting.

Now Jonathan and I both worked with the Polar swimmer, Lewis Pugh, first when he prepared for his first Arctic swim in 2005, and then Jonathan later that year on an expedition to the Antarctic. So it was from that experience that we dipped into cold water physiology. So a good deal of our posts on the cold will be on COLD-WATER exposure, but we'll also look at implications for running and cycling, as that's more our readership.

The difference between what you ARE and what you FEEL...

I also happened to catch the NFC Championship game the other night, from Lambeau Field in Green Bay. For those who don't know, they played the game at a temperature of -3 degrees FARENHEIT - that is a temperature of - 19 degrees celsius, folks! And it gets worse - with wind chill, they were reporting on-field temperatures of -31 degrees celsius! And it was interesting to see how the game dynamic changed as a result. I have no doubt that a good proportion of the 'basic' errors committed during the match were down to the cold.

As a teaser to the series on the cold, one of the most profound effects of cooling is that the conduction speed of nerve impulses and the force of muscle contraction are both reduced. This happens right away, long before the body temperature has dropped. So simply cooling the skin creates this effect - you don't actually have to BE cold to experience this - you just need to FEEL cold (and as we'll see in the series, there is a big difference between what YOU FEEL and WHAT YOU ARE!).

Anyway, a lot of balls were dropped, many passes just a meter off target, and much of that, I am sure, is down to the impairment of muscle contraction and nerve conduction by the cold. But that's what we'll be sinking our teeth into over the next little while, along with other, smaller stories that happen to come up.

So join us then, and again, apologies for the less frequent posting!

Ross

Haile Gebrselassie: 2nd fastest time ever

World marathon record eludes Gebrselassie in Dubai

The Standard Chartered Marathon in Dubai offered the richest payday in the history of the sport - $250,000 for the win and a bonus of $1 million dollars for breaking a 4-month old world record. And Haile Gebrselassie had his eye on both prizes as he lined up for his first marathon since claiming the world record with his 2:04:26 performance in Berlin last October.

However, it was not to be, and Gebrselassie missed out on the world record by 27 seconds, running a time of 2:04:53. His reward - the win in the second fastest time ever. The first man to run sub-2:05 twice. The two fastest marathon times in history, achieved in consecutive races in a 4 month period. The consolidation of his position as the fastest marathon runner ever. Yet, strangely, a sense of disappointment that is the result of just how good he is.

Where it went wrong - too fast, too soon and pacing problems

Haile Gebrselassie had talked up his chances of a world record in Dubai, and everyone else seemed to echo his sentiments. The talk from many circles leading up to the race was 2:03-something, with Gebrselassie himself talking of the 2:03 limit, both in the immediate aftermath of his Berlin World record and leading up to this race. But Gebrselassie is an entertainer and inspirational character for this reason - he's never been shy to talk up the chances of a world record, and 26 successful attempts suggests he is able to walk the talk.

However, in Dubai, a suicidal early pace put paid to any chances of a world record. Remember, at the start line, he needed to average fractionally faster than 2:57/km to crack the world record. His first 10km was run in 28:39 - that's a pace of 2:52/km, which projects a 2:01 finishing time!

For comparative purposes, when Gebrselassie broke the world record in Berlin, he covered the first 10km in 29:25, a full 46 seconds slower than in Friday's Dubai race. It's difficult to know just how the pacers managed to get it so badly wrong (5 secs/km is an enormous pacing error at that level) - you'd have thought that some feedback on the course after the first two kilometers would have seen the pace drop down. But this never happened, and the pace continued unabated.

We actually suspect that the feedback might have been purposefully ignored, and that Gebrselassie most likely asked for the pace to be maintained, perhaps feeling in great shape. Remember, no major challenges or threats were going to be coming from behind, and so Gebrselassie may have decided to "take the plunge" and see what happened off the back of this pace. It's difficult to know how else an experienced runner would get the pacing this far off.

Between 10 and 21km, Gebrselassie continued to grow the margin between himself and the world record pace. At halfway, Gebrselassie's time in Dubai was 61:27, projecting a 2:02:54. Remember, that when Geb ran the world record in Berlin, his SECOND HALF was covered in 61:57, and that was a remarkable performance. He now ran the first half a full 30 seconds faster, and it was perhaps inevitable that he was going to slow down in the second half.

That he did, and between 35km and 40km, the record slipped away. Eventually, a second half of 63:26 saw Gebrselassie finish in 2:04:53, a second inside Tergat's old record.

An indication of just how tough 2:03 will be

This race, then, is an indication of just how difficult a 2:03 will be for the marathon. After breaking the record in October, there was a lot of debate in the media about whether the 2:03 would be possible, particularly for Gebrselassie. We had this debate here at that time, and predicted that based on Gebrselassie's splits from the world record, this was very premature talk. Simply put, there just didn't seem to be margin to suggest that a 2:03 was on the cards.

That showed today, where the pace required for that time was simply too fast - a low 2:04 is perhaps possible, but the halfway split which projected 2:03 was too fast, by perhaps 45 seconds. And Dave Bedford's call that a 2:02 is possible in the next 6 years does really seem out of reach - that would require the athlete to run 30 seconds faster than Gebrselassie for his first half in Dubai, and repeat it all over again!

Looking ahead - Gebrselassie's next marathon - BEIJING

So ultimately, a disappointment, but only by the standards set by Gebrselassie. He cannot be unhappy with the performance, however. Consistency in marathon running is a valuable commodity, since the margins for error in the event are so small - training, race day conditions, pacing, and all other aspects of preparation have to be absolutely ideal to run a great time. And so to run two consecutive sub-2:05 times means that Geb has clearly mastered the preparation for the marathon, which will stands him in good stead for Beijing.

One training period too far?

On the other hand, two incredibly fast marathons in two starts within four months, and the prospect of another six months of preparation for Beijing (Gebrselassie is not running London and there are unlikely to be other marathons between now and the Olympics) lies ahead for Gebrselassie. Looking back on his last two years, this means that by August, Gebrselassie will be into month 24 of his quest for the perfect marathon - remember that he began the "quest" for the perfect marathon in October 2006, with his near miss on Tergat's world record. That was followed shortly after by an attempt in Fukuoka, then London, then Berlin, and now this race. And that does not include his races prior to Berlin 2006.

In effect, then, every marathon in the last two years has represented a hyped-up focal point in Gebrselassie's career and training cycle leading up to the race. Six marathons in 24 months (if we include Beijing), and every one a world record attempt...there has been little opportunity for downtime given this schedule, and the demand of both training and racing for these enormous performances might be a physiological warning signal. Will Beijing be one marathon too many? That's impossible to tell, though it would not be the first time a great athlete has stretched himself over one too many big training periods. It is yet another pointer towards a fascinating Beijing marathon.

Ross