Semenya wins at a canter

Caster Semenya wins the 800m gold by a country mile

Well, Caster Semenya has delivered South Africa's first medal in a World Championships since 2005, and becomes only the second women to win a title for SA. Her time: 1:55.45., some 2 seconds ahead of former world record holder Jepkosgei of Kenya, is a new PB, her second in a few weeks.

If you tuned in earlier today, you'll know about the controversy surrounding Semenya. There will be much more written about this, that is for sure. If you have some time, I'd encourage you to go to this post, and then read the comments at the bottom - such a fantastic range of opinions, from the outright upset at the terrible situation Semenya is in, to thought-provoking questions on the matter, to opinions on what should be done. It's a great read - thank you for your time and consideration, everyone. I wish I could do more justice to your comments!

The 800m final - an unpleasant affair

The general atmosphere of the race was unpleasant - as Conrad put it in his comments to that last post, there really was not a scenario with a positive outcome in all this, and we saw that tonight.

There was almost nothing in the way of congratulations from rivals, race commentary was stilted and 'strained', and there are reports of booing from the German crowd. Among athletics websites, there is a general resentment and anger (people take the sport seriously, they feel this makes a mockery of the event), and it is directed mainly against Athletics South Africa, but also against Caster Semenya (which I don't believe is fair - the governing body, sure, as mentioned, but not the athlete, for I don't believe she is wilfully cheating).

Added to this, we've now started to see the usual mud-flinging, accusations of racism levelled against officials and athletes, discrimination against entire nations (an ASA official effectively accused Australia, as a nation, of conspiring against Semenya...seriously, on live radio).

There have been multiple denials (two separate officials contradicted each other on the same radio station over here today - one said "no test had been perfomed", the other confirmed the tests), and the President of the South African Olympic Committee, Gideon Sam, has demanded that the IAAF either release results or stop making "malicious" comments. That's just to give you the perception of what is happening here in SA, where we have reacted as one might expected when a first gold medal in years is challenged...

Having posted earlier this afternoon that things would get nasty, I expected a few days, but it has not taken very long, and it's already ugly.

A future world record holder?

But all speculation aside, watching the race, and looking at its numbers, let me throw out a prediction:

Caster Semenya will break the world record of 1:53.28 (Kratochvilova) within the next 12 months, if she continues to improve and train effectively. It could even come this year. All she needs is a pace of 55 through the bell, and another 14 seconds through to 500m, and I believe she'd be able to finish in 1:53 or faster.

To take a race out in 26.9 seconds, then press through the next 200m in 29-odd seconds (to hit 400m in 56.83s), take the third 200m in about 29 seconds, and then still kick off the final 170m the way she did, and put two seconds on opposition over the final 200m - that suggests that 1:55 is a sub-max effort. And she did this looking well capable of speeding up if required. It was, had you not known any of the controversy, a quite astonishing performance.

And I honestly will predict that Kratochvilova's record will fall. Of course, people said that last year, when Jelimo dominated, and that has not come true, so there are no sure things. But Semenya looks well capable of that record.

This is a soap opera and a situation that has few positive outcomes, not for Semenya, not for those she competes against (who are now racing with such doubt and controversy hanging over them too) and not for people who watch the event and cannot make sense of the politics and denials and confusion.

Based on your comments, I have a few thoughts still to express, but that must wait for another time, so join us then! Oh, and there is other athletics too - Usain Bolt goes for number 2 tomorrow, though I'd be surprised if he breaks 19.30s. Then again, who knows...

Ross

Donate and support The Science of Sport

Thank you for taking time to read and follow our coverage of the IAAF World Champs and the Caster Semenya controversy here at The Science of Sport. We hope you've enjoyed the insights we've tried to provide!

We run this site as a "labour of love" and will continue to do so, but of course, any support is greatly appreciated. So, if you would like to donate and support our continued efforts to bring you the insights and analysis, please consider donating to our site. You can do so in one of two ways:

1. If you are reading this on our site, then simply scroll up to the top of the page, where you will find the DONATE button at the top right of the page.
2. If you are reading this in our email newsletter, click here to be taken to our site, where you will see the DONATE button at the top right of our homepage.

Thank you once again, and keep on reading!

Night of surprises in Berlin...and a few predictable results

Shock and surprise in Berlin: Women's 800m, pole vault, and 100m

...and according to script for Bekele in the Men's 10,000m

It was another great night of athletics in Berlin - no Usain Bolt, but a host of great middle- and long-distance running, finals and heats, and they produced some drama, shocks and surprises. None was greater than Elena Isinbaeva's failure to win pole vault gold (really, I'm not even making that up...!)

Then we had the women's 100m, and a milder surprise, and of course, providing the stability for the evening was Kenenisa Bekele, who duly delivered on his pre-race status and wrapped up title number 4 (but that's a topic for tomorrow, in more detail...for now, women's event recaps below).

Women's 800m semi-final: Surprises

The women's 800m event has, in recent times, been the most tumultuous in the sport. Consider that in 2007, we heralded the arrival of Janeth Jepkosgei of Kenya. She won the world title with her front-running tactics and looked set for an era of dominance.

Then in 2008, Pamelo Jelimo showed up. From nowhere, Jepkosgei was relegated to pack runner, losing by 3 or 4 seconds to Jelimo. Jelimo ran 1:55 to 1:56 with regularity, swept all before her, bagged a million dollars in the Golden League, and a gold medal in Beijing. The event was hers to dominate for years.

Jump to 2009. Pamelo Jelimo, beaten by 6 seconds in her first race, when he she ran 10 seconds slower than her typical time in 2008. That was back at the start of the season, we've now arrived at Worlds, and she's still a shadow of her 2008 form. She failed to qualify for the final, not even finishing her semi-final, having never featured at all. It is, to be blunt, the most spectacular fall from glory I've seen in the sport (in an admittedly short time). Quite how a woman who beat everyone by 2 to 3 seconds is now run out the back of mediocre races beats me. I guess it shows that even the elite cannot survive on talent alone. But for Jelimo...back to the drawing board.

But, if you thought we were done with surprise debut seasons, meet Caster Semenya, of South Africa. She announced herself to the world when she was involved in a trip with Jepkosgei, having to vault the world champion to remain in the race. She still won the heat, and won her semi-final today, looking, well...very comfortable and untroubled. Add to that the fact the Jepkosgei only made the final as a fastest loser, and Semenya is very much the favourite for the final.

There will be the usual host of Russians, a Spaniard, a Brit, and a few others who will attempt to challenge, but Semenya, based on her semi-final, and that 1:56 from a few weeks ago, looks to be the one to beat. She is this year's revelation, the Jelimo of 2009, and barring nerves or disaster, will assume the mantle of number 1.

One woman who won't challenge her is Maggie Vessey, the second fastest in the world this year, and a multiple winner in Europe. She never featured either, starting slowly, running at the back and never coming through. It was a disappointing way to bow out, for while a podium was always going to be tough (but certainly possible), she would have expected to feature more strongly in the semi-final.

Women's pole vault - shock as Isinbayeva is beaten

The strongest favourite in a women's event this entire week was Elena Isinbaeva. Sure, she'd been beaten a few weeks ago, a first loss in many years, but surely the Russian, who has just about owned pole vault for five or six years, would pull it together for the big event of the year?

It was not to be, however, and she didn't clear a single height. As is normal, she only entered the competition late, at a height of 4.70m, when other jumpers had taken four or five jumps. She failed at that height, and then the clearance of 4.75m by Poland's Anna Rogowska forced her to attempt 4.80m instead. Two failures at that height, and she finished last, giving the Pole her first world title.

For Isinbaeva, I guess it was inevitable, for one can only dominate for so long. What is of concern, however, is that it's not as though other women have closed the gap, but rather that she has come back to them. It might be expected that with Isinbaeva regularly clearing 4.90m, and setting the standard at 5.05m, at least a few women would start to edge nearer. They haven't, but Isinbayeva has returned to their level. Changes to technique, perhaps?

I'm not qualified to give an opinion on pole vaulting, so I won't, but it is at least refreshing to witness a pole vault competition where the outcome is undecided. The event had become pretty boring with the only suspense whether Isinbaeva would bank another big cheque for improving her record by 1cm each time...

Women's 100m - it's Beijing all over again

Shelly-Ann Fraser pulled something of a surprise in Beijing last year. It would be a little harsh to say that winning a world title to go with that Olympic gold would be a surprise, but the favourite on form in the European circuit would have been Kerron Stewart, also of Jamaica.

However, from the gun, it was Fraser, who really did leave Stewart behind. She must have gained 2m in the first 20m (the analysis from the IAAF research will be very interesting for this race), and then held it for 40m, and then held off a rapidly finishing Stewart over the final 40m.

Stewart was closing at an amazing rate in the last 30m. She will kick herself for losing quite that much time at the start. It's difficult to fault Stewart, for she did run a PB and that's about all one can ask in a major championship. However, I suspect that the IAAF research will show that Stewart had a top speed well in excess of anyone else in this race, and that will certainly give Stewart some reason to be disappointed with silver, for she had the race in hand had she started better. The reaction times alone tell a story - Stewart reacted to the gun in 0.170sec, while Fraser was timed at 0.146sec - that's 0.024 seconds already, combined with Fraser's power over the first 30m, and the race was decided

So it's a repeat of Beijing, on both the men's and women's side. One year ago, to the day, it was a Bolt world record, and a Shelly-Ann Fraser gold. Jump ahead to Berlin, and the times are faster, but the outcome the same, as Jamaica continue their dominance of the 100m event.

Men's 10,000m - it's Bekele again

The men's 10,000m will be the subject of a post tomorrow - it's one of the big events for us (we are partial to distance running after all). Kenenisa Bekele provided the stability on the day, doing what just about everyone had expected, and winning his 4th title. More discussion to follow...

Join us then!

Ross

P.S. There was one other surprise from Berlin - Galkina was run right out of the medals in the women's 3000m. She led the whole way, but never did any damage to anyone and as they approached the bell, about 4 women swept past her. It got worse with 200m to go, when even more swallowed her up. She fought back bravely, but never featured, and was eventually run into 4th place. The winner was Spain's Marta Dominguez, who outsprinted Yuliya Zarudneva off the final hurdle. Not a great night for Russian women - two gold medals they would have banked on, and they came away with nothing...

Analysis of Bolt's 9.58 WR

Analysis of Bolt's 9.58 World Record

As promised, as soon as the results and split times from Bolt's unbelievable 9.58s performance were available, we'd be analysing them

Turns out they became available rather quickly (not 9.58s kind of quick, but quick nevertheless). So here is the analysis of Bolt's race.

All the splits

First of all, here is the table published by the IAAF this morning, containing all the splits and times for 20m intervals, for both the semi-final and final:

Next up, some graphs to highlight certain things a little better. Below is a graph showing the 20m interval times for the top 3: Bolt-Gay-Powell

It reveals how Bolt achieved the fastest split at all intervals, which is amazing considering his supposed slow start. He led the race at 20m, and continued to grow that lead. I have shown his times on the chart:


The relatively slow first 20m (because of the start) makes interpreting the last 80m of the race quite difficult, so I've taken the liberty of looking only at the last 4 intervals, for a more obvious comparison between Bolt, Gay and Powell. It makes the point that Bolt was dominant from start to finish, as shown below.


Translating those times into speeds is a simple but interesting exercise (shown in the graph below), because you then perceive just how fast the top end speed is. For Bolt, the fastest interval (60m to 80m) was run at an average speed of 44.72km/hour. If you're wondering how that compares to last year in Beijing, read on...


The next graph shows the gap between Bolt and Gay and Powell for each 20m interval. I felt this would be interesting to look at because it would show whether Bolt did all the damage early and then held the lead, or whether he grew the margin progressively through the race. It turns out to be the latter option - he builds a lead at each interval. It's 0.03s/20m for the first 40m (over Gay, that is), and then Gay makes something of a comeback (but never actually closes the gap, he just limits its growth), before losing another 0.03 seconds in the final 20m.

For Powell, the margin grew steadily throughout the race, and opened up at an increasing rate after 60m. The comparison is interesting because it serves to highlight:
a) How incredible Bolt was, from start to finish of the race - who'd have thought he'd lead at 20m?
b) How well Gay did to hold onto Bolt as much as he did


A comparison between Berlin and Beijing

Now, for the comparison everyone has been making already - how does Berlin 2009 compare to Beijing 2008?

I must confess that I'm a little skeptical of the Beijing figures - at the time, there was some contention about the accuracy of these splits, because they were worked out from TV footage, whereas the latest Berlin result is a very specific research study, and thus (you'd think), more accurate. However, it's an interesting comparison, but just keep in mind that there may be some error in the Beijing numbers (you'll see what I mean below)

First the split times. I've looked at Bolt in Berlin, Bolt in Beijing, and then Gay in Berlin as well.

What it shows is that Bolt's first 20m in Berlin was actually slower than his first 20m in Beijing (now you see why I'm skeptical). Anyone who saw last night will testify that Bolt started brilliantly in Berlin, and so I can't believe he was slower to 20m. However, from then on, he's faster, and by 60m, is 1/100th of a second ahead of "himself in Beijing", then four hundreths by 80m, and adds another 0.09s to that gap in the final 20m.


As for the Berlin Top 3 comparison, here are the gaps at each 20m marker, but this time Bolt's performance in Beijing has been added (in green). Positive numbers mean Bolt is ahead (as was the case the whole way in Berlin!) and negative means behind, as the splits suggest for 20m compared to his Beijing run. So Bolt was behind at 20m (by 0.02s), slightly ahead at 40m, then grew the lead, to 0.04s at 80m, and ended up 0.11 seconds ahead of his Beijing time at the finish line.


Once again, here are the speeds based on the available times - they show that Bolt in Berlin hit a higher speed at 60 to 80m than in Beijing. I've indicated Bolt's speeds on the graph, and the smaller number at each point is the speed of Tyson Gay, just for comparison purposes.

So I suppose the question is: Does this prove that Bolt lost 0.07s by slowing down in Beijing, since this was the difference over the last 20m? The answer - of course not, no. His last 20m in Berlin was 0.07s faster than in Beijing, but he had reached a higher peak speed at 80m (well, strictly, it's his average from 60m to 80m that is higher), and so the degree to which he increased his "lead" over his Beijing performance is a little exaggerated - it's not an equal comparison because the starting value is greater. Therefore, I would still argue that he only lost about 0.03 to 0.05 seconds in Beijing as was written at the time, based on the assumption that at best, he'd have kept going at the same speed (this is best case scenario).

There is a lot more to be said, I unfortunately have a pressing deadline, so I'll have to say it later!

Until then, thanks for the comments!

Ross

P.S. One thing I didn't mention in the original post (and should have) is the difference in wind speed between Beijing (0.0m/s) and Berlin (0.9m/s tailwind). So here is a comment from Rob, which pretty much summarizes the impact:

One thing that I think needs mentioning is the effect of the tailwind, which was 0.9 m/s in Berlin and 0 m/s in Beijing. This might account for why Bolt/Gay in Berlin had higher top speeds than Bolt in Beijing -- at least based on your graph results (the other factor is the Bolt might have already started celebrating before the 80m mark in Beijing!).

Secondly, if we adjust for the affect of the 0.9m/s tail wind [Ross: this depends a little on which 'formula' you use to adjust for win, but it illustrates the point well enough, and the numbers are about right], Bolt would have run 9.62 instead of 9.58, which isn't much different than a possible 9.64 in Beijing had he run through the finish line. Tyson Gay's adjusted time in Berlin would have been 9.75.

Usain Bolt 9.58s Video

Video of Bolt's 9.58s World Record

If you're looking for analysis of Usain Bolt's magnificent 9.58s WR last night, you're in the right place!

Click here for our detailed analysis, including Bolt's splits, speeds and a comparison with his previous world record in Beijing

Thanks to all for your comments so far on Bolt's record. One thing I will say for Bolt is that he generates buzz, and it's wonderful for the sport! I can't recall any athlete producing such a response from media, crossing the boundaries.

Below is a video of the race, for those who might have missed it.



The limits to performance

As mentioned last night, it's still just too early to produce any kind of 10m splits, though hopefully the buzz will speed up the release of those numbers (if you have them, let me know!)

And, as is customary when a world record is broken, people are turning to the next world record and asking how low can it go? Bolt himself said that he could run 9.4s. Like Haile Gebrselassie's prediction of a 2:03 marathon, a lot depends on whether you believe that 9.4s means 9.40s or 9.49s.

I certainly think something below 9.50 sec is possible, though it starts to approach what I believe is a limit for performance. Last year, some scientists predicted that the ceiling existed at 9.48s, although those predictions always come back to haunt scientists! Peter Weyand once threw out a figure of 6 seconds, though I think we can safely say that's not going to happen.

One year ago, 9.58s was hypothetical only, and Bolt has pushed the event forward by two generations in one year (it was exactly a year, to the day, between Beijing and Berlin, incidentally. Bolt must enjoy August 16th). So given that improvement, why not 9.4s by 2010? I somehow don't see it improving that much so soon, but perhaps small increments, and given a long career, Bolt might yet go sub-9.50s. Certainly, not much seems impossible for Usain Bolt, though there is so much hype and lack of objectivity around, it's difficult to tease out real from make-believe!

Last word - Tyson Gay

Finally, I have to give a last commendation to Tyson Gay, second in 9.71s. For all Bolt's magnetism and the fantastic profile he gives the sport, Tyson Gay is a great champion, humble and committed and a real role-model. While Bolt commands attention and fascination, Gay earns respect for his person and his performances, and like Weldon Johnson of Letsrun.com, I was left with a lot of respect for Tyson Gay.

The contrast between him and Bolt makes the rivalry even greater. Bolt clowns around, Gay gets nervous. Bolt looks relaxed (a computer-game character is how Darvis Patton described him), Gay has to work so hard. But he's a great role-model, and speaking personally, more my kind of character.

A great article summing up the performance of Bolt, and the character of Gay, can be read here. It's well worth a read.

Today's action

Hard to believe the show goes on - tonight, it hits middle- and long-distance hyperdrive, as we have the final of the men's 10,000m (Bekele the man to beat), and the semi-finals of the women's 800m and men's 1500m. Can South Africa's Caster Semenya continue to make an impact (in a good way, this time!), and can Asbel Kiprop move one step closer to the 800m-1500m double?

Join us later to find out. Oh, and we'll definitely come back to Bolt's race as soon as the splits from the race are available!

Ross