More feedback on football and cycling

World Cup Final analysis and more on cycling performance limits

I have too little energy (and time) for a proper, in-depth post, but as promised, analysis from last night's World Cup final is now done, courtesy Zonal Marking.

It's another great analysis, from a site that has really increased my enjoyment of the tournament, and you can read it here.  I wish that all sports would embrace this kind of analysis - can you imagine if the "experts" on television produced such clear and insightful thinking for rugby, football, tennis, cycling, and even athletics?

One or two thoughts on the analysis - I agree that Holland set out with spoiling tactics and wanted to physically disrupt Spain's creativity.  Early on in the game, the flurry of fouls predicted that at some point, a red would be issued. It might well have been in the first half, with two horror challenges getting lenient treatment, but it could easily have been 11 against 10 as early as 35 minutes.  Spain were involved too, and it's always an interesting dynamic how the entire game degenerates into petulance and over-aggression when one team starts out with that approach.  That certainly seemed the case last night. 

There has been much criticism of referee Howard Webb, but I feel that his performance was more a reflection of the players' performances rather than a controlling one.  He could easily have shown red on two or three occasions before 90 minutes was played.  And also, I have to point out, given that we've had so much debate on this site about the cheating and fouling in football - if that was Uruguay or Italy or another South American team, and not Holland, there'd have been an uproar, widespread condemnation for 'typical dirty play'.  Spain weren't blameless, no, but for Holland last night, it was a poor showing.

The last 20 minutes of the match and extra-time finally told.  Space appeared (which it always does - as we saw with our post on fatigue, players lose about 8 to 10% of their speed by the end, making it much more difficult to press and close space).  Spain looked more likely to construct a goal, Holland remained dangerous on the break, but in the end, Spain wrestled control away and for the last 50 minutes of the match, were completely in control.  All they lacked was incision and composure in front of goal.  David Villa was poor for a second game - he is not suited to that lone central striker role and looked far more threatening when playing wide and coming in.  If Spain had him out there and an in-form Torres, they'd have scored twice as many goals this tournament.

Lastly, as Zonal Marking points out, Spain have won the European Championships and the World Cup, playing seven knock-out matches and not conceding a single goal in those games.  Attack wins matches, but defence wins tournaments.

Cycling - more on doping and performance limits

We've had some lively debate just recently regarding whether performances, and the physiological basis they require, can be used to flag (not prove, let me emphasize) doping.

And today, the New York Times ran a piece looking at much the same thing.  You can read it here.

This is another example of what I consider very interesting, well applied science to the sport.  I agree with Aldo Sassi around his limit to performance, I do agree that there is a grey area, and I believe that this grey area exists below 6.2 W/kg.  Others disagree, I'm sure.  Some have said this is "science at its worst".  I couldn't disagree more strongly - it's science at its best, being applied in the pursuit of an answer.  The very fact that it is debated makes it worthy of discussion, since there is no answer but a compelling reason to question.

People will always decide, of course, based on what they want to believe.  We will see what happens in this year's Tour, but if the top 5 of this year's Tour are climbing at the same power outputs as the Top 30 from Tours in the early part of the century, then either cycling has a vacuum of talent, or we're seeing an indictment of the 2000s, and the cleaning up of the sport now.  And physiological demands of the sport will highlight that change.

Ross

It's Spain!

It's Spain!  World Champions 2010

Spain are the World Champions.  A tense, highly dramatic final in Johannesburg went all the way to the wire, through 90 minutes and very nearly through extra-time, but an Andreas Iniesta goal in the 116th minute gave Spain a well deserved win.   46 fouls (compared to only 16 in the equally competitive semi-final) and 13 different players booked (including one twice - John Heitinga of Holland) was an indication of the flow of the match, and in truth, there might have been red cards sooner.  And there was plenty of screaming at the referee as football's ugly side came out for a last SA appearance.

But on the whole, an enthralling match, despite the lack of goals.  Spain controlled possession, as might be expected, but both teams created excellent chances, one-on-one opportunities with the keeper, headers from close range and other great opportunities.  An interesting stat is that before this game, Spain had actually created more shots on goal than Holland (82 v 67), but their accuracy of shooting and conversion was much lower (7 v 12), suggesting a lack of penetration, and probably also the approach adopted by their opposition.  For a brilliant piece on this, check out this article by Sports Illustrated before the final.

However, back to the final, and the game seem destined for penalties until Iniesta, a stand-out player, sealed the win for Spain.

I defer to Zonal Marking for full analysis of the tactical battle, in due course.

Le Tour - a timely antidote to withdrawal

Next up, the Tour.  Today was also a big day in the Tour.  Lance Armstrong's GC challenge ended with an 11:48 time-loss on the final two climbs, after a crash at the bottom of the penultimate Category 1.  At the front, Andy Schleck won the stage, and managed to throw down an attack that Alberto Contador couldn't match - a first for perhaps two years.  A group of 11 was together at the end, suggesting that this was not the big day in the Tour, with the GC riders happy to ride strongly up the final climb without aggressive attacking.  Until Schleck 1km from the finish, that is.  It sets the Tour up as a great battle - Cadel Evans holds yellow, Schleck is 20 seconds back, Contador a further 41 down.

But it has a wide open feel to it.  Rest day tomorrow and then we're back in the monster Alps.  Thankfully, after this football festival, I need something to help with withdrawal!

Well done Spain, deserved World Champions!

Ross

The World Cup Final and leTour hits the Alps

A preview of a massive sporting weekend

62 games down, 2 to go.  And the final game, on Sunday night, will see a first-time world champion crowned when either the Spanish or Dutch claim the World Cup.

Gladiators in a Colosseum

It will be an incredible match at an incredible venue.  I was fortunate enough to watch World Cup matches at Loftus in Pretoria (39,000 attendance that night), in Cape Town's Green Point stadium (about 65,000 at each of the matches I watched) and a match at Soccer City between Brazil and the Ivory Coast, where 85,000 people attended (picture right).  Cape Town is an amazing setting, certainly the most beautiful location for a stadium in the world, but Soccer City, well, it's just a breath-taking, hair-on-the-back-of-the-neck-standing-up stadium for its size and atmosphere.  If the Cape Town stadium hosts football matches, then Soccer City hosts gladiators in conquests, and anyone fortunate enough to be there on Sunday night is in for an unforgettable experience.

The match-up between Spain and the Netherlands brings together two of the world's pedigreed footballing sides, remarkable for the fact that neither has won a World Cup.  The Dutch have featured in two finals, during the "total football" days of Rinus Michels and Johan Cruyff in 1974 and 1978.  On those occasions, they fell short at the final hurdle. Spain meanwhile, had never even reached a semi-final, despite being home to two of the great club sides in world football (Barcelona and Madrid), and despite producing some of its great players. 

The Spanish have been solid and compact this year - they've only conceded two goals, the fewest in the competition, but have been less than incisive and spectacular at the other end of the pitch.  David Villa is their big threat, with 5 of their 7 goals to date.  However, as they have shown before, they have the ability to score from anywhere and a player in Fernando Torres who is only a second away from a return to goal-scoring form.  He may come off the bench, but it may be with impact.  If Vicente del Bosque chooses to stick with Pedro in his starting 11, it gives Spain more width and incision.  And with seven of the starting line-up likely to come from Barcelona, they have understanding too. 

The Dutch have been professional and clinical, and with on-form players everywhere, as well as two match-winners in Robben and Sneijder, they will be difficult to contain.  As has been the case all tournament, a lot will depend on who controls the midfield, which is a function of players, space and press.  Spain's pressing against Germany was brilliant, and rendered the German midfield largely anonymous by denying them space and time on the ball.  However, an interesting stat that I came across is that 47% of Holland's passes have been inside their own half, the lowest of the tournament, and a sign that they are happy to play deep and patiently.

It should make for an intriguing tactical contest, as well as a technical spectacle, with some of the finest technicians in the game on show in Xavi, Iniesta, Alonso, Robben and Sneijder.  The Spain v Germany semi-final had only 16 fouls in it, a clean, open match with none of the drama of some other matches, or the play-acting that has come to characterize football.  The Dutch have (in my opinion) been one of the worse offenders in this regard, and indeed Spain have also been accused of the same in the past, but I hope that the final produces the kind of attitude that both the semi-finals did, and we see a good clean contest (which makes it sound more like a boxing match, but anyway)

A link for the analysts among you

The technical analysis of the match is of course a fascinating area for me, and while I have more thoughts on how this match will unfold, I think it best to defer to what I think is the best site for football analysis that I've ever read.  In fact, I'd go so far as to say that this website is the best sports analysis site I have read, because it is accurate, technically detailed, but somehow retains simplicity at the same time, which is a rare combination.   I have friends who know little of the sport, but they are 'experts' in five minutes having read this.  The mark of great thinking is to take the complex and simplify it to make yourself look simple!  And this website does it brilliantly.   It's called Zonal Marking, and you can check it out here.

For an example of a brilliant post-game analysis, check out this post analyzing the German demolition of Argentina.  The comments are equally informative and high in quality.  And check in over the next day or two for his preview of the Spain v Holland final - the previews are accurate and they'll certainly enhance your appreciation of the match.

The altitude - Spain's familiarity may give a pacing advantage

The other factor that I do think may have a bearing is the altitude.  The only reason I point this out is because I noted today that Spain have played half of their six matches at altitude, whereas the Dutch have played at altitude only once.  That match was their 2-1 win over Denmark, and after the game, both teams really complained about the altitude.  The Dutch were quoted as saying that they struggled, both with breathing (dry mouth, shortness of breath) and the flight of the ball.

Of course, that match was three weeks ago, and they've had time to adapt, but I do think it is relevant that they've played five matches at sea-level since that, whereas Spain have played three at altitude over the same period.  Purely in terms of familiarity, this could become important.  I'm not sure where the Dutch have been based between games - their base was in Johannesburg, but teams travel to match venues up to 3 days before kick off, so it is possible that they've spent maybe 5 days out of 27 at altitude, compared to 20 for Spain. 

I posted earlier in the week that the altitude is certainly having an effect on the tempo of the matches, lowering total distance, high intensity distance and the number of sprints completed by each team, and I do feel that a crucial part of improving performance at altitude is learning how to pace the efforts.  And I believe Spain has an edge in this regard.

The crystal ball comes out

So for a bit of fun and because we're fans after all, I figure why not whip out the Science of Sport's crystal ball and throw out a prediction.  A tight game, as finals always are, will produce a goalless first half.  Spain will control possession, by pressing up on Holland, whereas Holland will be content to sit deep and rely on Kuyt and Robben to find space wide. 

So 0-0 at half-time, but Spain to score in the second half, with maybe 25 minutes to play.  Then Holland will throw players forward and be exposed in defence, and the final score will be 2-0 to Spain.  Torres to seal the win with a counter-attack goal at the 84 minute mark.  The Dutch will simply lack the sharpness at the end as a result of the altitude and Spain's relentless control of space and possession!  Also, I believe the experience counts for a great deal and given that Spain played in and won a 2008 Euro final with many of the same players, their familiarity will help them through.

And that's the crystal ball.  Don't worry, it's hardly ever correct, except for once in the London Marathon!  Whatever happens, let's hope for an open, positive and fair match, where the best team wins without the controversy and bad-taste of previous finals.  And please, no penalties!

The cycling hits a big rendezvous

As for the other massive sports event this weekend, the Tour de France hits the Alps tomorrow, and on Sunday, sees its first big mountain top finish in Morzine.  The stage profile is below:

With such a mountainous Tour still to come in the Pyrenees, this stage may well not produce the decisive moments in the Tour, but it is the first big rendezvous among the GC contenders.  The first week of the Tour produced plenty of nervous moments, eliminated two GC contenders and challenged all the others at various times, but the stage is set for the battle in the mountains.

Once the World Cup is finished, this becomes our big focus, so tune in for some thoughts next week!

Enjoy the World Cup final!

Ross

Rudy Pevenage admits to Puerto involvement

"It was a normal thing to do."

Well, seeing as how it is Tour time, doping scandals seem to be part of the scenery in July.  This year is no different, first because of the Wall Street Journal's article "Blood Brothers" which ran on Saturday during the prologue, and now because Rudy Pevenage has admitted to helping Jan Ulrich dope with Dr. Efumiano Fuentes, he of Operacion Puerto infamy.

I know what many must be thinking. . .that perhaps the admissions and info provided by Floyd Landis has somehow created a critical mass and more admissions will follow.  That perhaps Ulrich himself will make good on his promise to one day "reveal what he did during his career."  It would be the best thing for the sport because finally the UCI and others will be forced to admit that if there is not a problem now in 2010, at least there was only a few short years ago.  But all I can say is let's not get our hopes up just yet, because one can never, ever, underestimate the power of omerta and the denial of the officials and many fans.  There is a mountain of admissions, positive tests, circumstantial, and physiological data, but in spite of all this evidence many still believe either that the sport was never that dirty, or "that was  then, this is now," meaning with the biological passport suddenly things have changed.

The normalization of doping

You can click back to Cyclingnews.com for the details, but perhaps most telling is Pevenage's quote in the title of this post---"It was a normal thing to do."  He admits that not once did he feel like he was doing anything wrong.  Mind you, this is exactly what many dopers repeat again and again, including Landis.  He has expressed no regret for doping, and instead he saw it only as the necessary next step to climb to the top of his profession.  When illicit activities like taking hormones and infusing blood, which most of us express huge inhibitions to, suddenly become the status quo, you know you have a problem.  This is the effect of a sport's "culture," and before we get beaten again with the science stick (!), let me reiterate again that to understand fully doping in sport, one must consider all the angles, even the "social science of sport." The physiology is indeed a large part of the doping, but there are always many other angles that contribute to the entire picture.

Instead of cyclists being inhibited and choosing not to dope, for those wishing to reach the pinnacle or for those wishing to merely survive, doping is an entirely acceptable option.  It is the normal thing to do.  And until cycling---and all sports, mind you---can change that culture and that mentality, doping will persist, sometimes in epidemic proportions, although any doping at all is unacceptable.  Michael Shermer's application of Game Theory to the doping situation best summarizes it.  Until the negative consequences of doping are larger than the positive consequences of doping, it will persist as a behaviour in sport, primarily because right now there is still little risk of being caught and the benefits in the form of larger salaries, more endorsement deals, and renewed contracts, far outweighr the risks of getting caught.  And even getting caught is not the end of the world---just look at Ivan Basso's and Alexandre Vinokourov's mostly trouble-free returns to cycling.

How responsible are the coaches?

On another note, this brings up a question that has been asked before regarding the complicity of coaches and/or managers.  Typically the athletes test positive and suffer the consequences while the support staff are rarely implicated.  This has changed in the past few years as some coaches in athletics have been banned from the sport.  Most recently, Jamaican and four-time Olympian Raymond Stewart has been banned for life for buying banned substances from a supplier for his athletes, and previously Trevor Graham and Remy Korchemny have been given "life sentences" from their sport.

But is should be noted that these individuals were banned because it was shown they had a role in physically securing the drugs. and the larger question is even if a coach cannot be proven to have a role in buying the drugs, yet a string of his or her athletes test positive. . .how complicit is the coach?  Can they be held accountable at all?  It is a very gray area, and perhaps difficult to argue as it means the coach must now take some responsibility for another individual's actions.  However one might argue that if this is the case, then perhaps it might serve to deter doping or also might encourage third-party drug testing by teams and coaches, thus adding an additional layer of scrutiny outside of the organizing bodies.

Vive le Tour

In the mean time, the tour this year has produced some great, if not controversial, racing.  Stage 3's finish on the Arenberg cobbles, while not a favorite of the riders, cracked the race open and produced dramatic results from Cancellara reclaiming the yellow jersey to Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans riding themselves back into contention before the first mountain stage on Saturday.  And speaking of the weekend, what's a sporting fan to do?  Between the Tour de France and the last two World Cup matches, I hope your Tivo is working!

Jonathan