London Marathon Live

London 2011: Mutai and Keitany dominate

Emmanuel Mutai and Mary Keitany have won the 2011 London Marathon.  Mutai shattered the course record in running 2:04:40, which makes him the fourth fastest man in history (with the 5th fastest performance), while Keitany broke 2:20 in her second run.  For both, it was the manner in which the victory was achieved that was so impressive.

Men's race summary

The men's race, as is typical, was started with talk of a world record.  That prospect seemed doomed as early as 15km, when the 5km split was 15:03. That was followed by another 15:03 up to 20km, and the pace was never as fast as had been promised.

Halfway was hit in 62:44, projecting a 2:05:28, which was fast, but even this was a little misleading because the first 5km had been so quick.  Apart from those first 5km, the elite men were running closer to 2:06:30 pace.  In fact, the section from 5km to 30km was run at 2:59.4/km, or 2:06:11 pace, so the fast first 5km and a truly exceptional final 10km were responsible for that time!

The race was really shaken up around 30km though.  That's when Mutai hit the front, and the table below tells the story.  He burned up the roads of London, running 5km splits of 14:26 and 14:19 between 30 and 40km.  It was brutally fast, and no one was able to survive.  Martin Lel fought bravely with Patrick Makau in second, but Mutai opened 20 seconds at 35km and was 53 seconds clear at 40km.  The rest of the elite group was even more fragmented, pre-race favourite Kebede slipping over 2 minutes behind in this 10km stretch.

Mutai's final 12km were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54/km and 2:02 marathon pace!  That surge was enough to bring the overall time down enormously, and contribute to a 61:56 second half, which was the only negative split of the elite men's race.  Lel and Makau ran 63 minutes for the second half, everyone else was 64 minutes or longer.  Admittedly, many will have shut off having seen the win go away, exaggerating these times slightly.  So Mutai, who was second in London and New York last year, has gone one better by winning and a lot better by breaking 2:05 and joining a select group of marathon superstars. 

Women's race summary

Keitany, meanwhile, exploded onto the marathon scene, having started in New York last year, she's now established herself as perhaps THE woman to beat.  This is always the case when such a great half-marathon runner comes up, but the question mark is always whether they'll be able to translate their performances up.  Keitany answered that question with a resounding yes today, running an exceptional second half to win in 2:19:19.

The women hit halfway in 1:10:37, which was fast, but gave no indication of what was to happen.  It was pre-race Shobukhova who surged at halfway, but all that did was ignite Keitany, who went to the front and then never looked back.  A 16:09, 16:01 and a 16:14 followed for the next three 5km splits, and the gap was over 1 minute.

Keitany slowed slightly at the end, and Shobukhova bravely clawed back some of the time she'd lost, finishing in a PB of 2:20:15.  But it was an emphatic win for Keitany, who ran with such confidence.  Her second half was an incredible 68:42, a massive negative split set up by the fast section from 20 to 35km.  It also suggests more to come from Keitany, who must surely be capable of a sub-2:19, and it makes her the marathon runner to beat among the women.  With London 2012 on the horizon, the rest of the world will be taking notice!

Below are the splits, and below those tables are my "in-race" thoughts, as the race developed in chronological order.  As always, we'll be doing the same for Boston tomorrow, where ideal conditions should help set up another great race!  So join us then!

Splits

Men's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:34	14:34	2:55	2:02:56
10	29:23	14:49	2:58	2:03:59
15	44:26	15:03	3:01	2:04:59
20	59:29	15:03	3:01	2:05:30
Halfway	1:02:44			2:05:28
25	1:14:16	14:47	2:57	2:05:21
30	1:29:20	15:04	3:01	2:05:39
35	1:43:36	14:26	2:53	2:05:06
40	1:58:08	14:19	2:52	2:04:34
Finish	2:04:40
Women's Race
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:16	16:16	3:15	2:17:16
10	32:54	16:38	3:20	2:18:49
15	49:50	16:56	3:23	2:20:11
20	1:07:01	17:11	3:26	2:21:23
Halfway	1:10:37			2:21:14
25	1:23:10	16:09	3:14	2:20:22
30	1:39:11	16:01	3:12	2:19:30
35	1:55:25	16:14	3:15	2:19:19
40	2:12:07	16:42	3:20	2:19:22
Finish	2:19:19

 

In-race commentary time line

Women start

The women are running 5:15 to 5:20 per mile early on, which is a reasonable start - projects just under 2:20.  But, they're just through 4km now, so a long way to go.  The elite group is maybe 10 to 12 large.  The commentator keeps saying that Keitany is running her first marathon - she's not.  She came 3rd in New York last year.  She's showing very aggressively at the front so far, but everyone is in touch.

5km in 16:16.  2:17 projected, so that's quick, but the start of London is slightly down (from 3km to 4km - the mile there was 5:05) so it's always reasonably quick.  Expect it to slow down between 5km and 10km.

10km in 32:54, so it has slowed a little - 16:38 for the last 5km, including a slow mile of 5:48.  Mikitenko dropped off just around 5km, but other than that, all the major contenders are there.  Keitany running off to the side, Shobukova paying close attention to the pace-maker (and there is only one, which is strange)

Last mile in 5:02, so that must presumably be a downhill mile following the slight uphill.  Either that or the pace is fast-slow, but that's less likely.

Men start

The men are about to start.  What an incredible field.  Makau vs Kebede is probably the big battle, Makau being the World # 1 last year, and Kebede being beaten only by Wanjiru in that epic Chicago race.  But there are maybe 6 men with a good chance of winning.  Martin Lel is the dangerous unknown - the most incredible racer in the marathon a few years ago, he's returning from injuries that have forced withdrawals from his last few races, so I don't expect, but hope for something from him.

At 15km, the women are on course for 2:20:11, so it is slowing.  It's gone 3:15/km to 3:20/km to 3:23/km. The pacemaker has been joined by Shobukhova, who is probably more responsible for the pace than the official pacemaker.  Very confident way to run.  Keitany and Kiplagat, the big Kenyan challengers are in the pack now.

Men at 5km in 14:34.  Very fast, projecting a 2:02, but don't get too excited - as we said for the women, the 4th kilometer is downhill so the first 5km are very quick.  But it's a good sign of aggressive running so far.  17 men in the lead group, excluding 5 pacemakers.

The front men's group has now split, and of the five pacemakers, there are now only two in the front group.  There was a plan for a second paced group to run for around 2:06 - 2:07 (compared to a 62 min through halfway for the first group), so they have now separated into the "hierarchies".  There are nine in the group at the front, excluding those two pacemakers.

Women at 20km, and the progressive decline in speed has continued - the last 5km were at 3:26/km, so it's gotten slower by around 3sec/km since the start.  The projection is now for 2:21:23, and given her finishing speed, this will suit Shobukhova nicely.  Keitany may also enjoy the slower pace, given her half marathon credentials.

Shobukhova drives very hard through the halfway mark, which is reached in 1:10:37.  That move didn't achieve too much, maybe she was just testing the Kenyans behind her.  Very aggressive, that's a long way out to be driving at the front.  She obviously feels good.  Given how quick her finish is, it's a bit surprising to see that early push.  The pacemaker is gone, so now it's a race.

Men at 10km, and it has slowed just a little, but that was expected.  The last 5km were in 14:49, and the overall projected time is now 2:03:59, which happens to be the World Record.  The 14:49 is a touch slower though, if they were to maintain that, they'll do just inside 2:05.  The next 10km will tell us...

Mary Keitany has come to the front of the women's race now, and she's the big danger.  Shobukhova's move has been the catalyst for an overall increase in the aggression of the race.  The lead group is now seven, Keitany at the front and Shobukhova following her.  Remember that Shobukhova ran the final 2.2km of Chicago faster than the men's winner did, so she has serious speed at the end of the marathon.  A race between her and the half-marathon record holder is a great prospect!

Keitany is actually about 4 m clear.  She's driving very hard.  Shobukhova is gradually pulling the group back towards Keitany.  It's all happening very early in the women's race.  The 20-25km split will be very interesting.  This pace is doing some serious damage to the group behind her, they're in a long line and gaps are appearing everywhere!  She's surged again and opened a lead on Shobukhova.

Keitany has about 30 m on the chasers now.  And Shobukhova is no longer doing the leading in the chase group.  This is a serious move, it's opened the race up completely!  This is the kind of racing not seenin women's marathon running.

At 25km, Keitany is six seconds clear.  Her last 5km was in 16:09, the fastest of the race and that's what has done the damage.  The group behind are split and this is the race's big move.  Kiplagat is chasing, followed by Kebede, Bekele and Shobukhova, who started the racing at halfway and now being severely tested!

The men are at 15km in 44:26, having covered the last 5km in 15:03.  That will disappoint the race organizers, having asked for a 62 at halfway.  The pace is considerably slower than that now, and so any thoughts of the world record are fading fast.

Around 28km, and Shobukhova has moved into second, but Keitany has a gap of maybe 30 seconds.  She's out of sight as they go through a twisty section and Keitany is looking superb, so fluid.  The only danger for Keitany now is the distance and whether she'll pay for this surge.  The pace hasn't slowed behind, and so Keitany is still holding a pace of around 3:15/km, which is incredible running.  Last year's winning time was 2:21:59 by Shobukhova, this should be substantially faster.

Keitany has reached 30 km in 1:39:11, with a last 5km of 16:01, so she's actually gotten even faster!  It's extra-ordinary front running.  And while it's not entirely unchartered territory, to move this far out in only your second major marathon is exceptional running.  The projected time has now dropped to 2:19:30, and the way Keitany is running, even 2:18 is not out of the question.  The gap to the chasing Shobukhova & co is 33 seconds, and so they're running 16:25 for the last 5km, which is good pace, but Keitany is soaring at the front!

The men at 20km, and the pace is still pretty slow.  15:03 for the last 5km, and so that's 30:06 from 10km to 20km.  And that's not what the agreed pace was.  The halfway split is 62:44, and the commentators are projecting 2:05:30.  That's a bit misleading, because the first 5km was so quick.

The truth is that given the last 10km, unless the pace picks up, they'll run around 2:06:20.  Interesting to see how the racing in the second half affects this.  Expect it to get quicker, but the sub 2:05 is looking out of reach for now.  It'll take serious racing to bring them under that barrier.

All the main protagonists are there.  Mo Trafeh has dropped off, 14 seconds down at halfway, but he was running above himself to be there, and now will try to settle one something around 2:07 pace.  The lead group is 10 men, Makau, Kebede, Lel, Kwambai and Gharib are all still in that group.

Keitany has hit 35km, and the pace is still strong, though understandably has slowed somewhat.  The last 5km were covered in 16:14.  The lead has grown - Shobukhova and Kiplagat are now 1:09 behind, so she's opened up another 36 seconds in the last 5km!  She's unlikely to be coming back and marathon running has a new star!

The men have increased the pace, and at 25km, they're speeding up again.  The last 5km were in 14:47, which is 2:57/km pace and brings the projected time down.  The group is still 10 deep, one pacemaker there.  Kebede and Makau paying closer attention now.

Keitany through 40km in 2:12:07, so she has slowed - the last 5km has been covered at 3:20/km.  The gap to Shobukhova, who is now clear in second, is 1:07, so that hasn't changed since the 35km mark (it was 1:09 then.  She'll break 2:20 as well, comfortably - right now it's projected at 2:19:22, so expect 2:19:30-something.

The men are at 30km  - 1:29:20, and it's just outside 15 for the last 5km.  So again, slower than we all thought it would be.  Martin Lel is still there, and looking so smooth.  If his training was not quite geared towards London, it'll start to tell soon.  But if he's there at 40km, then his finishing ability (assuming three years haven't eroded it) will be hard to match.

The race has now begun though, the pacemaker is gone and the big guns are to the front.  The elite group is down to six men - Mutai, Kebede, Lel, Makau, dos Santos.

Keitany wins!  2:19:19!  Women's marathon running has a new superstar!  Whenever a super quick half-marathon athlete steps up, you expect great things, and Keitany is a fearsome half marathon athlete, so she is delivering on her promise now!  She'll be a big favourite in London next year, and the rest of the world will have taken notice!

Shobukhova coming in second with a super quick finish, she'll run a PB in 2:20:15 and a great run, but put into the shade by an amazing performance from Mary Keitany.

And now we get to see the rest of the women finish while the men's race is being decided.  This happens every year.  Let's see who finishes 18th in the women's race, forget the men's winners...

The men's race is on!  Mutai is pushing the pace and it's Martin Lel following!  Lel is there, and challenging.  Kebede is in third, Makau in fourth, but gapped from the front three just slightly, and we're coming up to 35 km.

No wait, we're going to see the women again.  We'll wait for Jo Pavey, I'm sure.  I appreciate the local interest, of course, but this is a lot like having a car dealership and putting the Ferraris and Porsches in the back, with the Toyotas and Volkswagens out front.  This is a global event, they need to cater to it - you can't grow the sport by "hiding" the superstars.  Very ordinary.

Ok, she's done now for the love of marathon running, can we PLEASE see the men's race!  No?  Ok, let's stick with the 20th best women for a little longer, and NOT watch the men...  London, you have truly outdone yourself this year.

Oh, there is a men's race after all.  They're at 35km, and Emmanuel Mutai is clear.  He covered the last 5km in 14:26, an exceptional surge in pace.  That was enough to drop Lel, who was "last man standing", and Mutai is 20 seconds clear!  That gap was created very quickly - at 32 km, they were together, and so Lel may have hit something of a wall.

This is the race's decisive move, with mile splits of 4:30 and 4:31 (2:47 per kilometer for 3km).  Lel is second, 20 seconds down at 35km, and Makau a second back of him.  The pre-race favourite, Tsegay Kebede, who spoke a good game of a world record before the race, has been pushed right back.  At 35km, he's 36 seconds down in 5th place.  In fourth is Dos Santos of Brazil, but we'll get a much clearer picture at 40km in a few minutes' time.

From the camera shots, no one will catch Mutai, he has clear road behind and ahead, and he'll win this race with about 12 minutes to go.  Meanwhile, we'll switch back to the women, and watch the women finishing in 2:38 or slower.  And we'll stay with these pictures, to see a 2:41 marathon runner, while the elite men running 2:05 are ignored.  Go London coverage!  It's not difficult to split the feeds, the international feed can easily be separated from what is shown locally.

Mutai at 40km, and the time is 1:58:05, and Mutai is flying!  He's going to break the course record, and run one of the fastest marathons in history!  And that's off the back of a relatively conservative period from 5km to 30km - 62:44 at halfway, and the section 5km to 30km was run at 2:06:11 pace.  So Mutai is going to go under 62 minutes for the second half!

Exceptional running!  Martin Lel has hung in there and is second, 53 seconds down, with Makau just behind him in third.  Makau will probably catch him.  That means that Lel and Makau have maintained the pace and are on course for around 2:05:30, which is exactly what the halfway split predicted. So Mutai has been the man to emerge from the pack today with an outrageously fast second half.  His last 5km were covered in 14:19, following on from a 14:26, and that's 2:52/km.

Mutai has won in 2:04:40, making him the fourth fastest man in history, behind Gebrselassie, Kibet and Kwambai (Geb has run faster twice, incidentally).  It's a course record, and it's been achieved with a second half of 61:56, which is super quick.  The final 12km, incidentally, from 30km, were covered in 35:20, which is 2:54 pace, or a 2:02 marathon!

Martin Lel has won a sprint for second in 2:05:45, and that is an exceptional comeback from the multiple London champion.  Makau is third only a second behind, and dos Santos has finished fourth.  Tsegay Kebede, meanwhile, has finished fifth in 2:07:47.  That's pretty disappointing for him, given the pre-race talk and his last few performances.  It's made more so by the fact that the halfway split of 62:44 was not that quick, so his second half was 65:03, which he'll be disappointed with.  A bad day at the office.

The pacing - only one faster second half


An interesting note on pacing - the halfway split was reached in 62:44, which predicts at 2:05:28.  And so the only elite athlete in the race to negative split was Mutai.  That's unusual, but what's more amazing is the size of his negative split, compared to the positive split in some of the other elites.


For example, Mutai's difference was 62:44 - 61:56, a 48 second differential faster!  Lel and Makau ran the second half in 62:51, so 7 seconds slower.  dos Santos was 63:50 or 66 seconds slower, and Kebede ran his second half 2:19 slower (65:03 vs 62:44).  

So a race of attrition for all but the top 3, and especially for Mutai, who aided by his final 12km in 2:54/km was absolutely exceptional.  The large spread across the top 8 was the result of Mutai's amazing surge, combined with a big drop-off in pace by almost everyone else.  One would not have thought that the men finishing in 5th or lower would run 65 minutes for the second half...


Ross

London 2010 Live post

London 2010 - splits and comments

Kebede and Shobukhova win as other favourites struggle

Tsegay Kebede of Ethiopia has gone one better than in 2009, and has won the 2010 London Marathon in 2:05:19.  The race was unlike London Marathons in recent memories, because it didn't come down to a big group of men with 5km to go.  Instead, the damage was done soon after halfway, when a 5km split of 14:26 split the elite group wide open.

This surge accounted for Sammy Wanjiru, Duncan Kibet and Zersenay Tadese, three of the big, big favourites in the race.  They were blown right out of the group.  Instead, it was Emmanuel Mutai, Abel Kirui, Jaouad Gharib and Tsegay Kebede who emerged at the front.  The next 5km, from 25km to 30km, was covered in 14:27, giving the elite men a split of 28:53 between 20km and 30km.

That is of course a fierce pace, but it was surprising that the elite field was so fragmented by this pace.  Certainly, Tadese, Wanjiru and Kibet have the capacity to run the pace, but today were simply outclassed.  It's not even as though they hung onto it for a short time, they were completely shot out the back of the group.

Kebede, on the other hand, thrived, and he covered the 21st mile in 4:33, which accounted for the brave efforts of Abel Kirui.  From that point on, Kebede was unchallenged, and his lead grew progressively.  The eventual margin of victory was 1:04, over Emmanuel Mutai, who caught a dying Kirui for his best London finish.  Gharib of Morocco finished strongly for third.  Kirui, meanwhile, paid for his efforts, finishing fifth.

As for those other favourites, at the time of writing, only Tadese finished, well down and looking well beaten.  Wanjiru and Kibet presumably stepped off the road somewhere between halfway and 30km, to fight another day.  For Wanjiru, it's a first disappointing performance in a major marathon.  For Kibet and Tadese, it's two-in-a-row, following last year's failures in Berlin and London, respectively.

I'm sure there will be much discussion of what happened in the aftermath - perhaps back troubles for Wanjiru, plus the travel difficulties, will come up.  For Tadese, I just wonder if he's got the training figured out.  How someone with a 58:23 half-marathon is be dropped just after halfway when the time is 63:10 is beyond me.

Women's race

On the women's side, it went more according to script, both in terms of the pace and the way it unfolded.  Early on, the pace was solid - on course for a low 2:22.  The pace started faster than this, and then dropped progressively up to the halfway point, where the pacemaker stepped aside.

Then it was Liliya Shobukova of Russia who took the lead, and continued to reel off 3:20s per kilometer, keeping the 2:22 within sight.  That was enough to progressively thin the field, with the resistance provided by Bekele and Mergia of Ethiopia, and Abitova of Russia.

Mergia threw in a big surge of her own at about 36km, and this accounted for Bekele and, for a short time, Abitova.  Shobukhova, however, looked untroubled and stayed with Mergia until the intensity dropped off. Then Abitova began to close the gap, and Shobukhova made the final, decisive move.  She moved away at 40km and went unchallenged to the line, finishing in 2:22:00.

It was actually a much closer race than the men's side, and Shobukhova gets my nod for the best performance of the day.  She was composed and in control the whole way.  After her searing finish in Chicago last year, you'd have forgiven her for following moves all day and waiting to the final 5km, but she didn't - she controlled the pace, did much of the work and in the end, was simply too good for the competition.

Overall perspectives

We'll give it much more thought and do our usual "race insights" post tomorrow, where we'll look more closely at the pacing and performances of the main runners.  For now, though, my impression is that the men's race didn't live up to the hype.  Yes, it was brutally fast between 20 km and 30km, but I really did expect it to be closer.

Kebede was a deserved victor, but when you look at the times, and the fact that for example, 10th place was 2:16:38, then you would be surprised to learn that this was the strongest field ever assembled.  Perhaps too much was expected, but I certainly thought it would be the deepest race ever, and if you'd said that fifth would be outside 2:08, I'd have dismissed that without a thought.

On the women's side, it was a better race, with more depth.  Most of the top women ran quite big PBs, and Shobukhova confirmed her status as the premier marathon runner at the moment.  Yes, the time was not spectacular at 2:22:04, but for competitive depth and quality, it lived up to the hype.

More to come - we'll have a closer look at the pacing and see how it unfolded, and add some insights on who thrived, who failed, and why.  So join us for that tomorrow!

Ross

Live coverage and splits below

For those who missed it, and want to follow it as it unfolded, below you can read the comments during the race, and also see the race splits.

Splits

Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	14:39	14:39	2:55.8	2:03:38
10	?
15	44:51	30:12	3:01.2	2:06:10
20	59:53	15:02	3:00.4	2:06:20
Halfway	1:03:10			2:06:20
25	1:14:19	14:26	2:53.2	2:05:26
30	1:28:56	14:27	2:53.4	2:04:51
35	?
40	1:58:41	29:55	2:59.5	2:05:12
Finish	2:05:19	Kebede
Distance	Time	Interval time	Pace for interval	Projected time
5	16:33	16:33	3:18.6	2:19:40
10	33:17	16:44	3:20.8	2:20:26
15	50:11	16:54	3:22.8	2:21:10
20	1:07:18	17:07	3:25.4	2:21:59
Halfway	1:10:56			2:21:52
25	1:24:04	16:46	3:21.2	2:21:53
30	1:41:08	17:04	3:24.8	2:22:15
35	1:58:25	17:17	3:27.4	2:22:46
40
Finish	2:22:00	Shobukhova

 


Race Comments

Women's start 

Seems I spoke to soon.  The commentators include Eammon Sullivan, who last year couldn't pronounce any elite names.  20 seconds in, and he's butchered Mikitenko's name.  Pity Martin Lel is not running, he may actually get that one right.

The early pace is steady, as the pacemaker has gone well clear of the field, who only now, just over 2 miles in are catching her.  They're on 2:22 pace, which is pretty much as expected.  About 14 women in the main bunch, but by halfway, expect that to be much thinner. 

Women 5km 
16:33 to 5km, so that's 2:19:40 pace, but aided by a fairly steep downhill section.  The roads are very wet, so while the sun is not out, the roads will likely factor at the end of this one.  Still a big group together.

Women 7km 
The group is now a little thinner, but only one pacemaker present, which is unusual.  It seems the commentators don't know that Shobukhova won Chicago last year - they've just referred to her as an unknown quantity, who is new to the marathon.  

Women 9km 
Plenty of footage of Mara Yamauchi so far, not surprisingly.  She, like many of the athletes, endured a length trip to get to the start line, thanks to the travel chaos last week.  It will be interesting to see how that affects performances.  Still 14 women in the lead group, one pacemaker in front.

Women 10km 
They've hit 10km in 33:17, so the pace has dropped only very slightly over the last 5km.  The group is pretty stretched out, so it should start thinning out soon.  

Women 13km

The pacemaker seems to be struggling, rolling side to side, the occasional grimace.  She doesn't strike me as capable of going much beyond halfway.  Shobukhova is looking very solid just off the lead, as are the Ethiopians.  

Speaking of struggling, Mikitenko is gone off the back of the lead group, that's her race pretty much over!  Big surprise - she probably wasn't fancied for the win, but few would have picked her to drop off a 13-women lead group inside the first hour!

Meanwhile, they're introducing the men.  Here comes the action!

Men's start

There are five pacemakers for the men, compared to only one for the women - this is as much a reflection of the quality of the fields and standards as anything else.  Last year, the men tore through 5km in 14:08 (and 10km in 28:30), so let's see if the same aggressive start happens here!

Women 15km

The women's pace has continued to drop off slightly - they're still on course for a 2:21:10, which is more or less what everyone had expected. The commentators are continuing to talk about Shobukhova as "inexperienced" and new to the event, even though she was third last year and won in Chicago.  They will certainly be surprised a little later, if she produces the win I certainly expect.

Men 4km

The pace is solid - about 4:48 for the first two miles, and the third one is fast downhill, so they're on course for a quick opening.  Not as fast as last year, though that's probably a good thing.

Men 5km

The split is in - 14:39, which is much slower than last year, and given the steep downhill 3rd mile, not that surprising.  The projected time is 2:03:38, but don't read too much into that.


The commentators can't pronounce Wanjiru.  Every time they say it, it comes out differently.  I can't understand how - he is only the favourite, and the defending champ, and the Olympic champion.  If there was only one name they should make sure of, it would be his.  Very poor.

Women 19km

The pacemaker has gone clear again, perhaps her last push before she drops out.  Or, maybe the elite field has lost momentum.

Women at halfway

The lead women are about to hit the halfway mark.  The time is about 1:11 (I didn't see it, because they cut away to the men).


Meanwhile, Mara Yamauchi has dropped off the lead group, which is a surprise. She was prominent at the front for the first 20km, and so her sudden "retreat" to the back is not a good sign for her.  I fully expect that later on, we'll spend time waiting for her finish in 2:26 while the men are at the 38 km mark.  Shobukhova is now at the front of the elite field.

Men 10km

The men's pace is quick, but not spectacular, which is a good thing. Last year was far too fast, and many marathons have been hindered by fast starts.  The group is spread out over the road, which is a good sign, because it means most of the men are holding back, not really being pulled along in a line.  The pace certainly won't drop off between now and halfway.  Struggling to get splits though.

Men 12km

All the big names are in the group - Wanjiru, Tadese, Kebede, Kibet, Mutai, Kirui, Gharib.   There are 12 in the group, but 4 are pacemakers, and all the main attractions are still present.

Women 25km

Not surprisingly, the pacemaker is gone, and Shobukhova is in the lead.  The pace actually picked up from 20km to 25km - the last 5km covered in 16:46.  The projected is now 2:21:53, and the group is now much smaller.  We haven't seen too much of the race in the last ten minutes, but there has to have been a small surge around halfway - it accounted for Mara Yamauchi and a few others.  There are now about 9 in the lead group, which is larger than I expected, I have to say.

Men 15km

I apologize for not having splits more often - the TV coverage is predictably uninformative.  If you know of live athlete tracking let me know.

Meanwhile, the men are through 15km.  It's anyone's guess what the time is.  It seems to be about 45 minutes, which is a little slower than I expected.  It's outside 2:06 pace, and as a result, the elite field is still bunched.

So the 15km split, unofficially, is 44:51.  That means the last 10km have been run outside 30 minutes, which is why the projected pace is now outside 2:06.  The pace has definitely picked up though, because the group is suddenly longer and sleeker, no longer spread out across the road.  The next split will be interesting - will be a little quicker, I suspect.

Women 29km

Shobukhova is still in the lead, setting a firm, but unspectacular pace.  There are eight other women in the group, including Bai Xue of China, and the Ethiopians.  Interesting that Shobukhova is doing as much work as she is - her finishing 10km in Chicago, and particularly the final 5km, was spectacular, and I'd have thought she might rely on that.  But perhaps she's looking for that 2:21 time as well as the win today.

Women 30km

The pace is solid - 17:04 for the last 5km, has them through 30km in 1:41:08.  The projected pace is now 2:22:15.  Solid, but unspectacular.  There are definitely signs that the pace will ramp up though, as the group has spread out and other athletes are pushing to the front for the first time since the pacemaker stepped off.

Men 20km

The men have run 4:50 miles for the last 20 minutes.  They've hit 20km in 59:53, which is still pretty sedate, I have to say.  The final 10km are going to have to be spectacular at this relatively slow pace.  There are 15 men in the lead bunch, none of the big favourites are absent.


The projected time is now mid-2:06 - 2:06:20.

Men halfway

The halfway point in 63:10.  Going through the water table, it did pick up a little.  I think the water-tables can be quite deceptive that way.  The size of the group is probably the best indication that the pace is not that quick - sure, London has a great field, but to have 12 men together at this point tells you that the pace has been steady and relatively unspectacular.

Women 32km

The lead group has thinned out steadily.  It's down to four now, and Bai Xue is not one of them, which is also a surprise.  Currently, Shobukhova leads, with Bekele and Mergia following most closely.  Ethiopia have had a brilliant marathon season, with wins in Paris and Boston, and vying for London today.  Also in the group are Abitova of Russia.  

Men 23km

The pace is still in the 4:50 per mile range - that's about 3:00/km exactly.  At this rate, they're looking at hitting 30km in 1:30:00, and then the race will really be on over the final 12km.  It should make for a spectacular race.

Men 25km

Huge explosion in pace - 4:33 for the 15th mile, and Wanjiru has NOT responded to that.  It was Mutai who threw in that move, and Kirui and Kebede were first to respond, and the defending champ was put into difficulty!  Wanjiru is gone!  Tadese is gone!  Kibet is gone!


The group has been blown apart by that move.  Tadese is hanging on, though more in touch that Wanjiru.  Kibet is off the pace too, he and Wanjiru are running together about 10 seconds back of the leader.  Gharib is there, but right now, it's Mutai, Kebede and Kirui, and one remaining pacemaker.


The last 5km were covered in 14:26, which explain what has happened to this group.

Men 26km

The pace is still high.  Dos Santos of Brazil is right at the back of the top group, and almost in touch.

Women 36km

The women are still in a group of four.  The pace has slowed - the last 5km were run in 17:17, the slowest interval of the race.  The commentator says they're "motoring" - they aren't.  But it is a tough race now, attritional.  Two Russians and two Ethiopians.  Shobukhova remains the favourite, but two Ethiopians in Bekele and Mergia Aselefech are perhaps the big dangers.

As I type that, Mergia Aselefech goes into the lead, and that seems to have Bekele in difficulty at the back of the group.  Shobukhova looks really comfortable to me, Abitova is still there.  Bekele is gapped, five meters back.  Now ten meters.  We're down to three.

Women 37km
Mergia Aselefech has continued to drive the pace, and now it's two!  Shobukova has hung on, as they've gone through the last mile in 5:18.  The fastest of the race.  Abitova is off the group, and now it's one Ethiopian vs one Russian.

Men 28km

The pacemaker is gone, and it's down to four.  It's Kirui, Kebede, Mutai and Bouramdane of Morocco the surprise package. The last mile was 4:38, and so the pace is still very fast.  The 5km from 25km to 30km is going to be spectacular.

Women 38km

The pace at the front of the women's race has slowed - Mergia threw in a surge but Shobukova was able to respond, and looked very comfortable doing so, I have to say.  Abitova has also held the gap steady, which will provide a good barometer of what is going on out in front.

Men 29km

Kirui and Kebede are out in front.  Wanjiru and Tadese are both well down, and neither is going to come back.  Mutai has seen a gap open in front of him in third, and so it seems down to Kebede and Kirui with fully 12 km to go.

Men 30km

Kirui vs Kebede.  My money would have to be on Kebede, but Kirui is running a brilliant race.  The pace has picked up incredibly - the last five miles were run in 4:36, 4:33 (the one that did all the damage), 4:51, 4:33 and 4:36. 


The result is that the projected time is now a course record.  It's 1:28:46 through 30km.  The last 5km were covered in 14:27.  That means the last 10km, from 20km to 30km, have been run in 28:53.


The projected time now is 2:04:51, and I have to say, it's likely to remain this quick.  Will we see a sub-2:05 in London to go along with Boston's sub-2:06?

Women 40km

The decisive move in the women's race has just been made - Shobukhova has gone clear.  Abitova managed to catch up to the leaders, which suggests that the pace dropped off.  As I mentioned, she was the barometer, and she is telling us that the pace dropped.  In response, Shobukhova has gone clear, and she is about to add London to Chicago, and cement her status as the top female marathon runner in the world.

Men 32km

Still Kirui and Kebede.  They're racing very hard, the pace is still high.  It's incredibly aggressive running.  I wonder if Wanjiru and Tadese and Kibet will even finish?  Another disappointing marathon for Tadese.

Women 41km

Shobukhova is well clear, on her way to a PB in the marathon.  She looks on for a 2:22 something.  She has been the class of the field today, always in control.  She was the first to take the lead when the pacemaker dropped out, and given her finishing speed, that would have been a concern to the other women - if she was confident enough to lead that early, then it was always going to be tough to beat her.

Women's finish

Liliya Shobukhova in 2:22:04 (unofficial).  The pre-race favourite has delivered in a new personal best.  Inga Abitova finishes second, a surprise name, and Mergia Aselefech in third.

And now, as expected, we'll get a good five minutes Mara Yamauchi coming in to finish in a time of 2:26 or even slower.  Meanwhile, the men's race continues, but let's watch Yamauchi finish outside the top 10.

Men 34km

Kebede is clear!  This is the decisive move in the men's race, and yes, folks, we missed it while waiting for 11th in the women's race.


In any event, Kebede is clear, with about 10 seconds on Kirui, who is fighting hard to keep up, but Kebede is looking strong in front.  The 21st mile covered in 4:33, that was the move that Kebede threw to gap Kirui, as we cut back to watch more women's finishers.  Is this 12th or 13th?  A spectacular finish for 12th, while Kebede and Kirui labour their way to 4:33 miles behind.  

Men 37km

Oh look, there is a men's race after all.  Kebede is clear, Kirui about 15 seconds back.  So the initial gap is now holding somewhat, but Kebede is looking well in control.  Back to the women's finish line, just in case we miss the athlete finish in 14th.  The men's winner is certainly not as important.

Men 37km

Kebede is on course for something around 2:05, which at halfway seemed unlikely. he has slowed somewhat, running 4:51 and 4:55 for the last two miles.  His PB, recall, is 2:05:18, set in Fukuoka.  South African woman, Tanith Maxwell has just finished in 2:34. 


18th now finishing.  I am thankful that the men's race is not closer.  At this stage, we're only missing the fastest men's performance ever.  Imagine there were five men together and the surges were being thrown.  Now it's 19th, really thrilling this.

Men 38km
The men are at 40km.  I'd guess that Kebede is still leading with Kirui in second.  But with even more excitement, I can tell you that Wilkinson has just finished, and then Docherty, in 2:38:10.  And now Harrison, and then I'm sure another five or six women in around 2:40.

If you're wondering who cares, then you're quite right.  So am I.

Men 39km

Back to the men.  The last mile in 4:46 and Kebede has the race in sight now.  He has perhaps 10 minutes to run, and having come second last year, he's going one better now.  The gap to Kirui is growing steadily, it's now about 20 seconds, and this is going to be the biggest victory margin in London in many years.  


Kebede is tired, he's hanging on, but I think less than everyone else.  It's been a bizarre race - "only" 63:10 to halfway, and then a huge explosion with successive 5km splits of 14:26 and 14:27.


I must confess that I'm surprised that it opened up like it did.  The surge was fierce, yes, but given the quality of the field, I expected more men to survive, even at that pace.  The second half will be significantly faster than the first, looking at about 62 minutes, perhaps a tiny bit faster, which is of course incredible running.

Men 40km

Meanwhile, back in second, Kirui is paying for the earlier surges, and it's Emmanuel Mutai who has moved into second.  The pace is slowing dramatically, as 40km was reached in 1:58:41.  That gives us a last 10km of 29:55, and those are times for Kebede.


The gap to second is just under a minute - 59 seconds, to be exact.  Which means, of course, that Kirui has covered the last 10km in 31 minutes.  Kirui may not even hang on for third, as he has only 20 seconds over Gharib, and he is finishing very slowly.


For Kebede meanwhile, the projected time is 2:05:12, which means that the course record now requires an increase in pace before the finish.  I don't think it will happen.

Men finish

Kebede wins, one second slower than his 2009 performance - 2:05:19.  It's the biggest victory margin in London for some time, we're so used to seeing sprint finishes and groups of three or four men head into the last 2 km together.


This, by comparison, was a solo effort, as Kebede managed to survive a fierce middle part of the race to emerge its champion.


Mutai has finished in second in 2:06:23, just over a minute back, and Gharib of Morocco has come third.  Bouramdane, also of Morocco has finished fourth, and Abel Kirui, who was the only athlete to follow Kebede's surge at about 35km, ended up fifth, having endured a terrible final 5km, his wheels really coming off after a brave attempt at challenging the small Ethiopian.


A real race of attrition - the first half was run in 63:10, the second in 62:08.

Ross 

London Marathon preview

London 2010:  The best race on the planet

It's pretty impossible to describe the quality of the men who'll be taking to the streets of London tomorrow, for what should be a fitting climax to the Spring marathon season.  So far, we've seen a sub-2:05 in Rotterdam, a sub-2:06 in Boston, and now, the grand finale in London promises to be the biggest and best race of the year.

It always is in London, thanks to a massive budget to bring together the kings of marathon running.  This year, that budget was stretched to its limit when most of the top African stars found themselves stranded as a result of the ash cloud over Europe.  A few private planes, $230,000 later, and all will line up in London, hopefully none the worse for their longer than usual journey.

The contenders

Who are they?  Well, London 2010 has arguably the best field ever assembled for a marathon.  It includes:

• Sammy Wanjiru - last year's London and Chicago champion, the current Olympic Champion, the course record holder in London and Chicago, and the current World Marathon Major champion.  And he's 'only' the third fastest man in the field with a 2:05:10 (last year's winning London performance)
• Abel Kirui - the world champion from Berlin last year, third in that incredible Rotterdam race last year with the second fastest PB in the race at 2:05:04
• Duncan Kibet - the fastest in the field, last year's Rotterdam winner in 2:04:27, though he did falter in Berlin last year, failing to finish.  His most recent half marathon performances suggest that was a blip
• Tsegay Kebede - the Fukuoka Champion last year, in a course record, and last year's bronze medalist in Berlin's World Champs, second in London, and also third in the Beijing Olympics
• Emmanuel Mutai - second in the 2009 World Championships, and fourth in London last year, with a PB of 2:06:15
• Zersenay Tadese - the unknown quantity in the marathon.  Well, actually, that's not entirely true, because last year, Tadese started London, but failed to finish despite much hype about what he could do over the marathon.  Most consider that an aberration, and given that only a few weeks ago, he ran to a 58:23 world record in the half marathon, few doubt that he may well be the big threat to the Kenyans

Simply put, there are too many accolades among those men to even remember!  So to sum up, London 2010 brings together all three 2009 World Championship medalists, all three Olympic medalists, the defending champions from Chicago, London and Fukuoka, the fastest man in 2009, the Marathon Major champ from 2009, and the half-marathon world champion.

Picking the winner

So how might this collection of superstars be sorted on Sunday?  It really is impossible to tell.  Sammy Wanjiru has raced and beaten every single runner in this field in the last two years.  His victory in Beijing's heat in 2008 is regarded by many (including me) as perhaps the greatest marathon ever run, and he followed it up with brilliant, aggressive front-running victories in London and Chicago last year.  Last year in London, he ran the 19th mile in 4:25 (2:45/km), typical of what he produces when on form.

However, he has struggled with a back injury since Chicago, and has been handed some pretty big defeats in shorter races since that.  It must be pointed out that pre-Chicago, he also didn't come in with a searingly fast half marathon, and the same is true this time - a 61:33 in March.  That's almost the same pace as I would expect them to hit halfway in tomorrow, something just a shade under 64 minutes.  So hopefully Wanjiru has managed himself and his build-up well and is in top form again.  If he is, then the race changes complexion because of his front-running aggression, and you wouldn't bet against him.  He is the slight favourite.

The big unknown, as mentioned, is Zersenay Tadese.  The fastest half-marathon runner in history, and that was only a month ago, he is destined to be a brilliant marathon runner.  Whether he can fulfill this on Sunday remains to be seen.  I have concerns over the proximity of his half-marathon record to this race - it was only a month ago and to be in that kind of shape a month out from a marathon, with the need to have been doing marathon specific training in the build-up to that race, may be a problem.  He may be slightly over the peak, and if so, would be found out in the final 10km tomorrow.  Also, last year was a very disappointing performance - he was almost the first big name to drop off the lead group, just after half-way.  But I am sure he will produce a much improved performance, and should be on the podium.  The sub-2:04 performance will come in the future.

The other huge challenger is Tsegay Kebede.  He finished 2009 with performances of 2:05:20 in London, 2:08:35 in Berlin and 2:05:18 in Fukuoka.  That gives him the fastest three-race average in one year in history, and he knows how to get it right in paced big city marathons - successive 2:05s shows this.

Those three make up my likely podium, though I really don't know the order.  If I had to guess, I'd go Wanjiru, Kebede, Tadese, but this is on occasion where in half an hour, I might well have changed it around!

And then there are so many other contenders.  Don't be surprised to see Mutai, Kibet and Kirui on the podium.  I'd be surprised if any of them won it, and Mutai in particular is a guy to watch.  What we have seen in recent weeks is that any one of perhaps two dozen athletes can break through to a 2:05-something time - who would have thought that Robert Cheruiyot had that in him, for example, and so this batch of men who lie just outside the 2:05 galaxy inhabited by Wanjiru, Kebede and Kibet are very dangerous indeed.

World record aspirations?

And then there is the time.  London has consistently assembled the best, deepest field in the world, but it seems that it may be just too tough a course for the record, with the depth of the field, the race tactics, and a lot of turns and the wind hampering the pace required to break 2:04.  I would expect that tomorrow.  London uses pacemakers, and so the early pace will be close to the World Record target, so expect halfway to be reached in about 62 minutes.  But then it will begin to drop off, and with such a strong field, you can expect there to be ten men together at 30km.

This is when the pacemakers drop off (if they even last this long), and this will cause a similar effect to what we saw in Rotterdam, with small surges being thrown, causing the pace to go fast-slow, and the record will gradually slip away.  However, expect a sub-2:05, but not a sub-2:04.

Finally, for comparison purposes, below is the pacing chart from the race last year.  You can read our comments are more detailed analysis here.  You'll see how incredibly fast it started (28:30 for the first 10km - 2:02:13 pace).  Then it got slower and slower and slower, and by 25km, it was positively pedestrian.  Wanjiru's attack between 30 and 35km was incredible, and it will be interesting to see if the same happens this year.

Women's race:  Chicago rematch

On the women's side, we also have the strongest field of the year so far, but lacking the depth and quality of the men's race.  The focus initially will be on a rematch between Liliya Shobukhova, the Chicago champion last year, and Irina Mikitenko, the two-time defending London Champion.  She will be looking for a hat-trick of London titles on Sunday, and was unbeatable for a long time, running solo efforts of 2:19 (the only active woman in the sub-2:20 range)

However, the death of her father, some time off and then a defeat at the hands of Shobukhova last year, along with some injury concerns, means that her attempt at three titles is under threat.  Shobukhova produced a final 5km that was faster than Sammy Wanjiru at the same point in last year's Chicago marathon, which she won in 2:24.  She has also run in London, finishing third in 2009, and so is a major threat.

Neither woman has performances this year, so we don't know their condition coming in.  However, they are the pedigree of the field.  Challenges may come from the Chinese World champion, Bai Xue, and from the Berlin 2009 winner, Atsede Habtamu.  Bai Xue has run 2:23, but at 21, she may yet have a substantial improvement in her.  If that comes on Sunday, then she's a big favourite, because the winning time in London is unlikely to be much faster than about 2:22, and so she'll feature.

Another name to look out for is Mergia Aselefech of Ethiopia.  She was third in Berlin's World Championship marathon last year, but earlier this year produced a 67:22 half marathon, which is substantially faster than anyone else in the field in recent months. 

So how might this race play out?  The women's race will be substantially less aggressive than the men's.  I would be very, very surprised if we even see four women together at the halfway mark (which will be reached in around 71 minutes, well outside world record pace), whereas I fully expect there to be ten men running in a group at 30km, at close to world record pace.  That is the reality about women's marathon running at the moment - it's very, very weak, and needs an injection of the track capabilities of Defar, Dibaba and Abeylegesse to ignite to anything remotely like the men's event.

This of course means that the stage is set for someone to break through, and if you're looking for a good bet, one of the Ethiopians is a favourite to do that.  Both have run sub-69 minute half marathons this year, and have enough marathon pedigree to suggest more to come.  I expect to see Shobukhova racing against either Aselefech or Habtamu over the final 5km.  Shobukhova will win, probably in around 2:22, with the Ethiopians in second.  Mikitenko to run a solid fourth with Mara Yamauchi in fifth (and probably getting as much TV time as all the men combined, if last year's coverage was anything to go by).

Live coverage and comments

Overall though, it's the men's race that will produce the aggression and most excitement.  Hopefully, we get to see it - last year, we missed much of the action, since the TV coverage preferred to show Mikitenko running a solo time-trial.  That, and the fact that the commentators couldn't pronounce half the names makes me hope we get a different feed this year, one that hopefully doesn't spend ten minutes at a time watching nothing happen.

As for Paris and Boston, I'll be doing live splits, and commenting on the action as it unfolds, so join me tomorrow morning (SA time - 10am) for what should be a breathtaking battle.

Ross

On the horizon - the marathon season

The marathon season begins.  And some random musings on Semenya, TV production, and Boat race

The week has flown by, and the first big marathons of 2010 are nearly upon us.  It kicks off in Europe in Rotterdam and Paris this weekend, and then jumps across the Atlantic for Boston next week, before returning to London for what is an outrageous field on April 25th.

Last year, Rotterdam produced the fastest times of all the marathons, right the way to the end of 2010.  Duncan Kibet and James Kwambai raced their way to a 2:04:27 sprint finish.

I'd be surprised if the same happened this year (though wouldn't rule it out, given the way marathon running has gone recently).  Rather, London promises to produce the fastest and most competitive marathon, at least until later this year when Berlin should provide a challenge to the time, if not the competitiveness of London.

Consider London's field so far:  Martin Lel (my personal favourite a few years ago when he was unbeatable), Sammy Wanjiru (the current number 1, and last year's champion), Tsegay Kebede (last year's number 2 to Wanjiru, and a fast winner in Fukuoka), Duncan Kibet (he of the 2:04:27 time last year, but disappointing since), Jaouad Gharib (perennial podium finisher in major marathons), and Abel Kirui (2:05:04 marathon best).

All told, there are six men with times under 2:06, multiple Major marathon winners, the fastest man from 2009, the best racers from 2009.  Oh, and not to mention, perhaps the name with the most intrigue of all - Zersenay Tadese.  He debuted in London last year, but failed to finish.  He recently ran a 58:23 half marathon world record, and his credentials point to a fearsome marathon.  Whether that 58:23 is too close to London is the big question - we've seen other top marathon performances follow on after 61 minute half-marathons, and so has Tadese done the necessary marathon specific training on route to the 58:23?  The answer will be known on April 25th

It's an incredible field, and makes London the much-anticipated finale of the Spring season.   The other races should be equally intriguing!  We haven't forgotten them, and we'll be bringing the usual analysis of the televised races to you as soon as possible after the race (or live, during them, in some cases).  Sadly, Rotterdam is not shown on SA TV, but you can check out the elite men's preview courtesy LetsRun.com.

Paris to follow!

Semenya announces her return

The other big news this week is the continuing drama of Caster Semenya, who, having held a press conference which was basically to force the IAAF's hand last week, this week gave them a good reason not to delay any further - she announced that she will return to competition on June 24th in a relatively small race in Spain.  The IAAF are now compelled to make a call when they promised to (at last).

Semenya has certainly gone on the "offensive" recently, driven along by the legal firm that is backing her.  She (or rather, they) have made numerous statements, the latest being one in which they have told a South African news channel that her medical team has looked at her results and their own tests and concluded that "she was clear to compete".

I think we can safely say that this is not the case - it's the same spin the same lawfirm used for Pistorius two years ago.  If it were a "clear" case, the IAAF would have rushed to make this announcement and allow her to run.  Let's be clear here - the IAAF want this issue to disappear, to be resolved.  It has caused them enormous problems, and they would love nothing more than to reach a verdict and get on with things.  If those tests did show she was "clear", then the IAAF would have celebrated back in August.

They didn't.  The tests clearly showed some major issues, and those need to be resolved.  The reality is that the IAAF are not exclusively Semenya-oriented, as much as we seem to believe this here in SA.  Every other 800m athlete also deserves their consideration and so their decision has to factor in equality and fairness of competition for ALL women 800m runners (not to mention the precedents set by the case).  The implications of a "clear case" for Semenya, without any medical intervention, will be profound for the sport.  It will turn the women's 800m event into a procession for the next ten years, unless some medical resolution is also found. Whereas one athlete is now disgruntled, hundreds will be (with reasonable grounds, it must be said).  If that is to be the case, then so be it, but the lawyers are doing no favours to the sport with their PR campaign that oversimplifies the issue.

Many outsiders involved in the sport are of the opinion that she should not be running against women.  And while their opinion may be "under-informed" in terms of their medical knowledge of the complexity of intersex conditions, their intuition should not simply be dismissed.  Sometimes, as Malcolm Gladwell pointed out in his book Blink, those who are experts and know the most have the least chance of reaching an accurate decision.

One thing that is certain is that the lawyers are introducing a complexity that has not been seen in cases like this.  That's not necessarily all bad - the rights of the individual can't be walked all over.  But this is the same law firm that got Oscar Pistorius cleared despite no evidence that didn't suggest he had a large advantage.  And the latest statement smacks of the same PR spin as we saw when Pistorius went on the public relations offensive.  That ultimately resulted in him being cleared, and it does seem that Semenya will run again.  The IAAF are extremely unlikely to ban her completely.

The issue then is whether she has some kind of medical treatment, either surgical or chemical, to attempt to reduce the levels of testosterone that may be providing an advantage.  We may not know that answer, but will have her performances as a barometer to speculate.

University Boat Race - SABC, Supersport, were you watching?

And then finally, last Saturday saw the 156th Oxford-Cambridge Boat Race.  It was the light blues of Cambridge who triumphed this year, after two consecutive losses to Oxford.

But what I wanted to comment on is the outstanding package put together for television.  It's polished, professional, knowledgeable, understated, and world-class, and makes the Boat Race one of the best sports events to watch on television.

There is a SMALL team of EXPERT commentators, who are also well trained and led by a professional media anchor (please note, SABC, that you don't need to have nine commentators on rotation, and you also don't need to talk all the time.  Viewers are not complete imbeciles who need meaningless waffle thrown their way to pass the time.  Sometimes, the pictures tell the story just fine).

The use of graphics is also intelligent and meaningful, and data (which need not require an advanced degree to understand) can actually enhance the package.  And most importantly, the commentators are experts.  There is a difference between knowing the sport and understanding the sport, and too often, commentary is done by those who merely know things.  The Boat race has insight, and it raises the package to a level that is suddenly compelling, even for people who haven't rowed or watched it before.

It should provide a model for the preparation and packaging of all endurance sports on television.  Hopefully the SABC in particular were paying attention - you'll have similar opportunities to learn when the London Marathon is shown on April 25.

The reason I raise this is that poor TV quality of sport is a major issue of mine, because it undermines endurance sport and kills off its chances of growth (sponsors and viewers are not attracted to mediocrity, it turns out).  If the sport of running, for example, is to survive in what is now an entertainment industry, then the standard has to be perfection, not mediocrity.

Below is a clip from the 2003 Boat Race - one of the great finishes and one of the great sporting events that I have seen!  If I had to compile a top ten list, this event would be in it!

Enjoy!
Ross

Marathon running: The next generation

Wanjiru vs. Kebede: The future of marathon racing?

The Giro is now underway, with young Mark Cavendish wearing pink for now, but the first serious mountain stage is not until Tuesday, so while the sprinters have their way on the flat stages we thought we would double back on the marathon season and take a closer look at the two stars that have emerged: Sammy Wanjiru (KEN) and Tsegaye Kebede (ETH). It was not so much an emergence as staking a claim on the future, because over the past 18 months these two have asserted themselves as future of marathon racing with serious times and performances. Hopefully we can expect more battles like the one we saw in London this year, so it is interesting to see exactly how they match up head to head so far.

Ethiopia vs. Kenya: Part I

The 1990s was full of epic duels between Gebreselassie and Tergat as those two chased each other through the ranks, besting each others WRs along the way and producing incredible racing when they met head to head (think back to the 10000 m final in Sydney!). We have written previously about the differences between the two countries systems and how currently Ethopia leads Kenya in head to head competions, and it is timely now that as these two legends begin their swansongs two younger runners are waiting in the wings to keep the rivalry alive. But before we look ahead, let's look back for one second at how Gebreselassie and Tergat stack up:


Ethiopia vs. Kenya: Part II

Before we get ahead of ourselves, don't misunderstand us---both Gebreselassie or Tergat, while at the end of their careers, are far from being washed up. In fact Gebreselassie has bucked the commonly held belief that a runner's best marathon performance comes in about the third or fourth attempt, because has has now run about eight or nine and the last one was his fastest! So both will still be competitive for a few more years and due to their experience and pedigree one can never truly count them out, but in Wanjiru and Kebede we have the potential for the next generation of head to head performances. Interestingly, the two youngsters are incredibly similar on paper:

The first big difference between their predecessors and this next generation is that both Kebede and Wanjiru are running marathons at the same age that Tergat and Gebreselassie were still running cross country and/or track. Kebede does not even have a 5000 m time on record, and although he is matching Wanjiru in the marathon now he has a 10000 m PB of "only" 28:10. However this does not demonstrate his full potential over that distance because he is running much faster in the marathon than plenty of runners, for example Meb Keflezighi who has a 10000 m PB of 27:14 but only has 2:09 best marathon. So had he stayed on the track he likely would have run sub-26:30 before moving to the road in his late 20s or early 30s.

The youngsters' progressions

Both Kebede and Wanjiru debuted very close to each other in 2007, with Wanjiru's first marathon in Fukuoka '07 and Kebede running Paris earlier that year. Both have now run four marathons and both have progressed in a similar fashion:

So if we exclude Beijing, which was unusually warm and a bit of a different race anyway, both men have lowered their PB with each marathon attempt. Kebede had more to gain as he debuted at 2:08, but recall that in London '09 he stayed with Wanjiru until after 40 km, and was 2nd only because he conceded 10 s to Wanjiru over that last 2.2 km. So both men appear to be quite evenly matched, although it took a few races to get there, but it now sets the stage for their next showdown.

Wanjiru is slated to run Berlin in September, but Kebede's agent must still be shopping him around or negotiating details with one or more races. Rumor has it that Gebreselassie's contract with Berlin specifically exlcudes certain runners from lining up against him, but we cannot confirm that. He has always been keen to push the limits and has never been afraid of trying to set a new record, so is that why he is not "afraid" of Wanjiru? The young one seems to have the ammunition to challenge the Great One, but who knows how it will play out down the stretch? Could Geb effectively end up pacing Wanjiru to a new record and the second man under 2:04?

Wanjiru is keen, stating earlier this year that he thinks he can eventually lower the time to 2:02, so it will be all eyes on Berlin in September for this head to head time trial. If Berlin looks after Geb with an army of pacers as they have in the past two years, and they do not replicate the poor pacing in London thus year, then the smart money will be on a new WR.

The Giro d'Italia: Mountain-top finish on Tuesday

Meanwhile the Giro promises to heat up as early as Tuesday, when we see the first mountain-top finish. Of course European readers can watch it live on television, but those of us in the USA can catch it live on the internet over at Universal Sports and then tape-delayed (Tivo, anyone?) later in the day on their cable channel. If you need to keep one eye on work don't worry---Cyclingnews.com will be doing live text updates as the race unfolds so you can keep up with the attacks. And even if you miss the action, we will post on the racing and give you the insight and analysis you have to come to expect from us!

Jonathan

PS---let's not forget the smoking hot performances from Doha and Japan this weekend, which we will get to in due course!